There are only seven games on tap for tomorrow but there is one total in particular that I really like. The Houston Rockets visit the Phoenix Suns tomorrow and the total is set at 222.5. The total has already gone up with the public steam to 223 at some places. This is the highest total ever for the Houston Rockets all year. The Rockets haven't even had a total above 218. The average total in this matchup in the last ten games is 210.5, this is a huge 12 point jump from the average.
The last two matchups in this series both produced Overs, one of them went over in OT though so I technically count that as an under as they went way under in regulation. The last total at Phoenix with these two teams was only 215.5 and it skyed over easily scoring 228. Going from 215.5 last game in PHX to 222.5 tonight is a big jump considering it is the same exact two teams that met earlier in the year. A lot of times the books don't even change the total after a big under or big over in the previous game. The books do sometimes change the totals around a bit but a 7 point change is very significant and to me points to an over tomorrow night.
Phoenix is coming off their third worst shooting performance of the whole year. They only managed to score a measley 91 points @ OKC. I just took a look at how Phoenix faired offensively in their next game when they scored under 100. Take a look at the results. The score on the left is what they scored on the off night socring under 100, and the score on the right is the score immediately after that poor shooting night. In 9 out of 10 games Phoenix drastically increased their points scored in the next game. The average increase in points in these ten games from the one poor shooting game to the next was +17.7 points
If you don't include the one game against ATL, it is an average increase of +20.8 points.
90-115
88-101
99-116
91-113
99-118
98-112
97-88 (only bad shooting performance I found after scoring less than 100 was this game against ATL who is a top 10 defense btw, they did win the game though 88-80)
96-120
93-133
98-112
Also don't forget that Houston has the 9th worst defense in the NBA allowing over 102PPG. I know when you usually think of Houston you think of defense but this has not been the case at all this year as they have reassembled the whole team. Shane Battier is out and he is definitely one of their best defenders. I know it's late in the season and Houston has nothing to play for but they are still fighting. They scored over 100 in their last four road games, averaged 109 in that four game road trip. Kevin Martin is back and healthy.
This article is also very promising that I read regarding the matchup tomorrow night. Here are some of the quotes I thought were interesting and support my play. It sounds like that the Rockets are prepared to go running up and down the court and they definitely don't plan on trying to slow it down and play a halfcourt game like last game with the Bobcats.
“It's going to be a different game (comparing Bobcats and Suns),” Aaron Brooks said. “They're going to be up and down, but we'll be all right.”
“It's going to be fun,” Ariza said.
“We don't have any quitters on the team,” forward Trevor Ariza said. “We have guys no matter what the situation is, we play hard. That's what keeps us going.
For all you trends people out there. Four out of the last five in this series have gone over with a total of 215.5+. The last two totals at Phoenix in this matchup that were remotely close to the total provided tonight were 215.5 and 222.5, both of these games went over.
Rockets/Suns Over 222.5 BIG
The last two matchups in this series both produced Overs, one of them went over in OT though so I technically count that as an under as they went way under in regulation. The last total at Phoenix with these two teams was only 215.5 and it skyed over easily scoring 228. Going from 215.5 last game in PHX to 222.5 tonight is a big jump considering it is the same exact two teams that met earlier in the year. A lot of times the books don't even change the total after a big under or big over in the previous game. The books do sometimes change the totals around a bit but a 7 point change is very significant and to me points to an over tomorrow night.
Phoenix is coming off their third worst shooting performance of the whole year. They only managed to score a measley 91 points @ OKC. I just took a look at how Phoenix faired offensively in their next game when they scored under 100. Take a look at the results. The score on the left is what they scored on the off night socring under 100, and the score on the right is the score immediately after that poor shooting night. In 9 out of 10 games Phoenix drastically increased their points scored in the next game. The average increase in points in these ten games from the one poor shooting game to the next was +17.7 points
If you don't include the one game against ATL, it is an average increase of +20.8 points.90-115
88-101
99-116
91-113
99-118
98-112
97-88 (only bad shooting performance I found after scoring less than 100 was this game against ATL who is a top 10 defense btw, they did win the game though 88-80)
96-120
93-133
98-112
Also don't forget that Houston has the 9th worst defense in the NBA allowing over 102PPG. I know when you usually think of Houston you think of defense but this has not been the case at all this year as they have reassembled the whole team. Shane Battier is out and he is definitely one of their best defenders. I know it's late in the season and Houston has nothing to play for but they are still fighting. They scored over 100 in their last four road games, averaged 109 in that four game road trip. Kevin Martin is back and healthy.
This article is also very promising that I read regarding the matchup tomorrow night. Here are some of the quotes I thought were interesting and support my play. It sounds like that the Rockets are prepared to go running up and down the court and they definitely don't plan on trying to slow it down and play a halfcourt game like last game with the Bobcats.
“It's going to be a different game (comparing Bobcats and Suns),” Aaron Brooks said. “They're going to be up and down, but we'll be all right.”
“It's going to be fun,” Ariza said.
“We don't have any quitters on the team,” forward Trevor Ariza said. “We have guys no matter what the situation is, we play hard. That's what keeps us going.
For all you trends people out there. Four out of the last five in this series have gone over with a total of 215.5+. The last two totals at Phoenix in this matchup that were remotely close to the total provided tonight were 215.5 and 222.5, both of these games went over.
Rockets/Suns Over 222.5 BIG
