NBA Systems attached (the ones I was selling but they're FREE now)

[ackem19]

Here you go guys. All the system details are in the spreadsheet. The games that have actually been tracked are all the games that fit the systems since I started to track the systems as early as 3/18/10. I will also post all the systems here. GL and Get$.

System 1
Play UNDER - all teams where the first half total is >100 in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%) in a game inolving two good ball handling teams <=14.5 TO's/game.
09-10 Season: 68-47 (59%)
Last 5 Seasons: 397-274 (59%)

System 2
Play under - any team vs. the 1st half total - who allowed >=50% FG% 3 straight games.
09-10 Season: 37-25 (60%)
Since 1996: 250-167 (60%)

System 3
Play Under - all teams where the 1st half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 after allowing a shooting pct of 50% or higher.
09-10 Season: 14-4 (78%)
Last 5 Seasons: 43-20 (68%)

System 4
Play UNDER - any team - terrible defensive team (allowing 103+PPG on the season), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more.
09-10 Season: 36-22 (62%)
Last 5 Seasons: 139-81 (63%)

System 5
Play Over - any team in a game involving two poor 3-point shooting teams (<=33%), in a game involving two good ball-handling teams (<=14.5 TPG).
09-10 Season: 11-5 (64%)
Since 1996: 119-67 (69%)

[hels]

I'm sure that these numbers are true but these 'systems' are only valuable with long term data going back to the 07-08 season. March 18, 2010 wasn't even a month ago. So few games show no significance at all (this is statistics talk). If you continue with your plays I wish you all the best but you'll find that it'll end up break even in the long run.

[ackem19]

Noted. These systems all go back at least 5 years each. I'll add their records from previous years.

[Smogs]

Cheers for putting this out there, but the question has to be, why for free if you had previously sold them?

[ackem19]

I didn't realize how much selling on forums was prohibited. I don't want to be considered a tout or what not. If my systems continue winning, then i won't need to make money from others. When I was selling them, i was trying to raise my bankroll so i could bet $500 a game next season. Anyways, hope they help you. I really think the only way to ensure a winning record, is to bet everything it generates. Otherwise you may just be on wrong end of the system.

[THE PROFIT]

so 1,2,3 are 2H play systems?

[ackem19]

1, 2 and 3 are Play UNDER 1st Half.

4 and 5 are Play OVER just the regular total.

[texhooper]

at what point in a season would you start using these systems? i imagine you would only do something like this with a certain amount of data collected from that current season.

[DaProfessor23]

very very niceee =]

[ackem19]

at what point in a season would you start using these systems? i imagine you would only do something like this with a certain amount of data collected from that current season.

That's a good question and something I'm trying to figure out. Maybe after the 1st month. However one may consider placing small wagers on all the plays the system generates from the beginning of the season. I'm not sure what I'll end up doing.

[Fasttrack]

Thanks. Will definitely take a look.

[texhooper]

i will keep my eye on this next year. these angles sound pretty solid, and i actually kinda like the last angle the best, even though it doesn't produce many plays. it seems like a nice contrarian angle.

[Rig]

Looks good, but I'm way too lazy to track every game at halftime...
Way too much time I would spend

[talnted]

looks good I will look into this. Thanks for the info man

[talnted]

1, 2 and 3 are Play UNDER 1st Half.

4 and 5 are Play OVER just the regular total.

... the post at the top definitely says to play the UNDER for number 4

can you clarify what you mean here?

[ackem19]

sorry my bad. I meant play on the Total. You're correct. Just to recap:

Systems 1,2,3: Play UNDER 1st Half

System 4: Play UNDER Total

System 5: Play OVER Total

[Wilforth]

Good info.

[ackem19]

ADDING NEW SYSTEM:

System 6
Play Over - any team after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive losses.
09-10 Season: 19-10 (66%)
Last 5 Seasons: 126-69 (65%)

Added updated spreadsheet.

[dee_jas]

interesting stuff

[Rixxon]

So system 6 is play the over on the team
total, not the game total?

[ackem19]

no it's play OVER on the TOTAL. when it says, any team, it just means that as long as one teams is coming off of 3 or more consecutive losses, and the other team is coming off of 4 or more consecutive losses, then play OVER.

[Rixxon]

What if two systems contradict eachother? For example todays plays would include New Jersey vs Chicago over 196 (system 5) but also under 99 (system 3), of course it is possible to be over final and under 1h, but what if system 4 and 5 contradict eachother? No play? Other than that, these systems seems promising, thanks for posting!

[Tommy_de1st]

Thanks Ackem, ill have a look

[ackem19]

What if two systems contradict eachother? For example todays plays would include New Jersey vs Chicago over 196 (system 5) but also under 99 (system 3), of course it is possible to be over final and under 1h, but what if system 4 and 5 contradict eachother? No play? Other than that, these systems seems promising, thanks for posting!

if they contradict, no play. I just noticed that System 3 didn't say "3 straight games of 50% fg pct allowed". It's suppose to say:

System 3
Play Under - all teams where the 1st half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 after allowing a shooting pct of 50% or higher 3 consecutive games.

[ackem19]

UPDATE:

these systems collectively went 11-20 in April. Now I know, not to bet in April for next season.