Ok I have to admit I don't really like the board to much but I do like what I see in this Portland and New Orleans matchup. I am leaning pretty hard to the Blazers right now.
The line on this game came out at Blazers -2.5 and with around 56% on the Blazers the line has gone up a whole point to Blazers -3.5. I personally think this is a pretty big movement considering that you only have a majority of 56% on Blazers. I have two big reasons for liking this play. The first one may seem a bit odd but I think it's a good one. Chris Paul is back for the Hornets. Usually when a star player gets injured you should still take that team. But when a star player comes back to the team you should fade them. Why? The synergy is all messed up with the team and usually the player is not 100% when they come back. NBA players just don't have patience and almost always come back too early, especially an intense competitor like Paul. I should have faded them last game against the Cavs when Paul came back, he was 2-8 5 points and 7 assists in 31 minutes. This is well below what he normally puts up. Andre Miller and Brandon Roy are great defenders and I think Paul will struggle again tonight.
"I have to get back into the flow and understand what we're trying to do," Paul said. "Hopefully, that will come sooner rather than later. ... The biggest thing is that my knee feels fine."
He is fully admitting that he is not back into the flow with the team. It will be very, very hard to beat a great western conference team when the guy who has the ball like 90% of the time isn't into the flow. He also didn't do very well in his last game against Portland, Paul was held to three points on 1-of-8 shooting in an 86-78 loss to the Blazers on Nov. 13.
The other reason I really like the Blazers tonight is just the overall situation. The Hornets are not making the playoffs and the Blazers are right in the hunt trying to better their overall seed. Portland will no doubt want this game a whole lot more than the Hornets. This is also the first game of a perpetual five game road trip for Portland and teams make it a point to go and get that 1st road win. Portland has been hot winning 8 of the last 10 while N.O is ice cold going 3-7 their last ten games. A big stat that I really like is that Portland is 10-0 SU their last ten games as a favorite, they are taking care of business when they are supposed to. Their last two losses as a favorite came to Utah and Boston, both very good teams. New Orleans though is far from a very good team.
Brandon Roy is a HUGE mismatch for the Hornets. They don't have anyone who can even think about stopping him. Camby is coming off his best offensive game with the Blazers, posting 17 points and 11 rebounds. He should play with a lot of confidence now. I think he is starting to gel now after the trade from LAC. The Blazers bench is also better than the Hornets. Hornets bring Songalia, Posey, Wright and Collison off the bench. Blazers bring Jerryd Bayless, Martell Webster, Juwan Howard and Rudy Fernandez who is back from injury. All in all the Blazers just matchup very, very well with N.O.
A lot of you might be thinking, "If Portland is such a big mismatch for N.O then why did N.O beat Portland @ Portland last game by one?" The big mismatch on the floor, Brandon Roy did not play in that game. Also, they were starting Pendengraph as they hadn't made the trade for Camby yet.
The one game @ N.O, the Blazers were fully loaded. I am not sure I have seen this all year but Portland actually shot 37% which is downright horrible and STILL beat New Orleans by 8. That is just pure ownership.
Blazers -3.5 LOCKED
The line on this game came out at Blazers -2.5 and with around 56% on the Blazers the line has gone up a whole point to Blazers -3.5. I personally think this is a pretty big movement considering that you only have a majority of 56% on Blazers. I have two big reasons for liking this play. The first one may seem a bit odd but I think it's a good one. Chris Paul is back for the Hornets. Usually when a star player gets injured you should still take that team. But when a star player comes back to the team you should fade them. Why? The synergy is all messed up with the team and usually the player is not 100% when they come back. NBA players just don't have patience and almost always come back too early, especially an intense competitor like Paul. I should have faded them last game against the Cavs when Paul came back, he was 2-8 5 points and 7 assists in 31 minutes. This is well below what he normally puts up. Andre Miller and Brandon Roy are great defenders and I think Paul will struggle again tonight.
"I have to get back into the flow and understand what we're trying to do," Paul said. "Hopefully, that will come sooner rather than later. ... The biggest thing is that my knee feels fine."
He is fully admitting that he is not back into the flow with the team. It will be very, very hard to beat a great western conference team when the guy who has the ball like 90% of the time isn't into the flow. He also didn't do very well in his last game against Portland, Paul was held to three points on 1-of-8 shooting in an 86-78 loss to the Blazers on Nov. 13.
The other reason I really like the Blazers tonight is just the overall situation. The Hornets are not making the playoffs and the Blazers are right in the hunt trying to better their overall seed. Portland will no doubt want this game a whole lot more than the Hornets. This is also the first game of a perpetual five game road trip for Portland and teams make it a point to go and get that 1st road win. Portland has been hot winning 8 of the last 10 while N.O is ice cold going 3-7 their last ten games. A big stat that I really like is that Portland is 10-0 SU their last ten games as a favorite, they are taking care of business when they are supposed to. Their last two losses as a favorite came to Utah and Boston, both very good teams. New Orleans though is far from a very good team.
Brandon Roy is a HUGE mismatch for the Hornets. They don't have anyone who can even think about stopping him. Camby is coming off his best offensive game with the Blazers, posting 17 points and 11 rebounds. He should play with a lot of confidence now. I think he is starting to gel now after the trade from LAC. The Blazers bench is also better than the Hornets. Hornets bring Songalia, Posey, Wright and Collison off the bench. Blazers bring Jerryd Bayless, Martell Webster, Juwan Howard and Rudy Fernandez who is back from injury. All in all the Blazers just matchup very, very well with N.O.
A lot of you might be thinking, "If Portland is such a big mismatch for N.O then why did N.O beat Portland @ Portland last game by one?" The big mismatch on the floor, Brandon Roy did not play in that game. Also, they were starting Pendengraph as they hadn't made the trade for Camby yet.
The one game @ N.O, the Blazers were fully loaded. I am not sure I have seen this all year but Portland actually shot 37% which is downright horrible and STILL beat New Orleans by 8. That is just pure ownership.
Blazers -3.5 LOCKED
) 28 points after 3 quarters! His best shooting night of the year by far. He didn't even play the 4th.
