Hope everyone enjoyed Sacramento last night, even you guys on the East Coast that couldn't stay up for it but awoke to a pleasant surprise this morning. Here is the line (mine).
Washington +1.5, 197
Orlando -13, 200
Golden St +3, 205
Wizards +7 over Hawks
The Wizards look just terrible don't they? 3-0 after the trade deadline and 1-6 since. Josh Howard has gone down for the season and he was the best they got at the trade deadline. So,"oh woe is me", right? Under bettors are jumping the under because the Wizards scoring is way down the last 5 games and these two teams have a history of low scoring games. To an extent I will buy all that, but, as always in the NBA not everything is as it seems. The last 5 games the Wizards have played the Nets, Bucks twice, Celtics and Rockets. The current defensive average of those 5 (in regulation time) is (credit the Bucks twice) 94.48 ppg, 5.78 ppg under the current league average. and the Wizards played 3 of the 5 on the road. That doesn't leave a lot of room for scoring. In their favor is that they held those 5 opponents to an average of 93.8 ppg and the same five have current offensive average numbers of 97.36 ppg., even holding the high scoring Rockets to 96 points. We can see that the Wizards are capable of defense and all the scoring problems may be more attributable to the opposition they have played than a severe lack of ability on their own part. What do you expect to score with the Bucks twice (best current D in the league) and a follow up with the Celtics?
The Hawks do not put that kind of focus into their defense, preferring to outscore their opponents to win, currently scoring 105 ppg, but surrendering 99.7. If the Wizards face a little softer defense they may come back toward the 103.6 ppg they were putting up prior to the current 5 game skid. This is a home game, +7 points, versus a soft defense. Is it starting to make sense?
Our old friend Mr. Sagarin only makes the Hawks -5.52 so lets see what else we can glean there. Certainly more useful than his point spread computation, unimportant but nice to have on our side. He currently lists the Hawks as the 6th best team in the league, but only 7th in the Predictor and EloChess (probability they can win a game straight up). I don't know how that works, but I guess it does for him. Useful to glean may be that the Hawks, although 6th in his rankings, are 9-11 versus teams in his Top 10 and just 16-16 versus the upper half of the league. Laying points on the road in the NBA is never easy and laying 7 with an average team is very difficult to swallow. The Wizards look terrible, but they always do, and that is why they draw more points than they should.
The Hawks show a declining pattern of season, last 20, last 10, SU and ATS, versus a rising pattern for the Wizards. Read in that order the numbers are 40-23, 11-9, 6-4 SU and 36-27, 7-13, 3-7 ATS for the Hawks. Wizards are 21-40, 7-13, 3-7 SU but 25-34, 9-11, 5-5 ATS. See the trend toward more likely better performance? In my personal power rankings, geared to the spread, not the championship, these two rank dead even in one category and the Hawks have only a 0.3 advantage in the other, before allowing for home court advantage, which just happens to be 3.1 points tonight, and NO, I am not going to tell you how I determine that either (lol). In my opinion there is a decent chance the Wizards can win one tonight, but the probabilty is just not there for a money line play. The 7 points is a heck of a cushion, take them. BOL, Key
Washington +1.5, 197
Orlando -13, 200
Golden St +3, 205
Wizards +7 over Hawks
The Wizards look just terrible don't they? 3-0 after the trade deadline and 1-6 since. Josh Howard has gone down for the season and he was the best they got at the trade deadline. So,"oh woe is me", right? Under bettors are jumping the under because the Wizards scoring is way down the last 5 games and these two teams have a history of low scoring games. To an extent I will buy all that, but, as always in the NBA not everything is as it seems. The last 5 games the Wizards have played the Nets, Bucks twice, Celtics and Rockets. The current defensive average of those 5 (in regulation time) is (credit the Bucks twice) 94.48 ppg, 5.78 ppg under the current league average. and the Wizards played 3 of the 5 on the road. That doesn't leave a lot of room for scoring. In their favor is that they held those 5 opponents to an average of 93.8 ppg and the same five have current offensive average numbers of 97.36 ppg., even holding the high scoring Rockets to 96 points. We can see that the Wizards are capable of defense and all the scoring problems may be more attributable to the opposition they have played than a severe lack of ability on their own part. What do you expect to score with the Bucks twice (best current D in the league) and a follow up with the Celtics?
The Hawks do not put that kind of focus into their defense, preferring to outscore their opponents to win, currently scoring 105 ppg, but surrendering 99.7. If the Wizards face a little softer defense they may come back toward the 103.6 ppg they were putting up prior to the current 5 game skid. This is a home game, +7 points, versus a soft defense. Is it starting to make sense?
Our old friend Mr. Sagarin only makes the Hawks -5.52 so lets see what else we can glean there. Certainly more useful than his point spread computation, unimportant but nice to have on our side. He currently lists the Hawks as the 6th best team in the league, but only 7th in the Predictor and EloChess (probability they can win a game straight up). I don't know how that works, but I guess it does for him. Useful to glean may be that the Hawks, although 6th in his rankings, are 9-11 versus teams in his Top 10 and just 16-16 versus the upper half of the league. Laying points on the road in the NBA is never easy and laying 7 with an average team is very difficult to swallow. The Wizards look terrible, but they always do, and that is why they draw more points than they should.
The Hawks show a declining pattern of season, last 20, last 10, SU and ATS, versus a rising pattern for the Wizards. Read in that order the numbers are 40-23, 11-9, 6-4 SU and 36-27, 7-13, 3-7 ATS for the Hawks. Wizards are 21-40, 7-13, 3-7 SU but 25-34, 9-11, 5-5 ATS. See the trend toward more likely better performance? In my personal power rankings, geared to the spread, not the championship, these two rank dead even in one category and the Hawks have only a 0.3 advantage in the other, before allowing for home court advantage, which just happens to be 3.1 points tonight, and NO, I am not going to tell you how I determine that either (lol). In my opinion there is a decent chance the Wizards can win one tonight, but the probabilty is just not there for a money line play. The 7 points is a heck of a cushion, take them. BOL, Key
