Interesting thought about betting NBA....

SolidDala · 03-09-10, 01:58 PM

Have actually played this a little bit. Basically bet against nets ats, bet for the top 4 ats teams. Filter out against best hometeam ats road team ats etc. Problem is that current ats record % is not gonna continue due to:

# books catch up
# ATS% is high thanks to streaks, meeting poorer teams etc and will go down a bit after hand

SolidDala · 03-09-10, 02:02 PM

A good example to this would be bobcats whom where in top 3 ATS after 2 months and are now just 33-28 ATS. Milwaukee is on a heck of a run, but not likely to continue it through out the season..

infamousbacardi · 03-09-10, 02:03 PM

For sure...and this makes sense...but how much do the books actually account for records ATS, as opposed to just making them on a per night/situation basis. I mean, the fact that a team could be 10-0 ATS their last 10 doesn't mean too much to Vegas, does it?

For example, look at the Bucks game tonight. It is basically a pick em game...but it is a pick em game because they have a chance to win this game, not because they are the best team in the NBA ATS.

TGoat · 03-09-10, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

I realize it isn't quite that simple...but really, why not after the first 15 games or so pick the highest 4 teams so far ATS, and ride them through the season with 1 unit per game, every game they play?

Why not go into a casino and watch the roulette wheel, and if out of the first 15 rolls 10 or more are black, then just bet on black for the next 67 rolls?

pats3peat · 03-09-10, 02:43 PM

id also like to know how much does vegas care about recent ATS record, im sure they care a little because it affects public perception.

infamousbacardi · 03-09-10, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by TGoat

Why not go into a casino and watch the roulette wheel, and if out of the first 15 rolls 10 or more are black, then just bet on black for the next 67 rolls?

Except that, what if the next 5 rolls are all red? Experiment over! :-) The Bucks alone would have your NBA season at +16 units themselves.

SolidDala · 03-09-10, 04:36 PM

ATS trends or not; at the end of the season there is always a few teams above .570 for ATS and a few belove .450. How anyone can decide witch teams that will be is the real challenge, except for Nets this season. Three teams I think will be profitable for rest of season:

Against Nets and Wizards
Back Over in 1H for Cavs when LBJ is playing

lakerboy · 03-09-10, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

For sure...and this makes sense...but how much do the books actually account for records ATS, as opposed to just making them on a per night/situation basis. I mean, the fact that a team could be 10-0 ATS their last 10 doesn't mean too much to Vegas, does it?

For example, look at the Bucks game tonight. It is basically a pick em game...but it is a pick em game because they have a chance to win this game, not because they are the best team in the NBA ATS.

You do realize that books try to make teams ats records even out by the type of lines they hand out right. Earlier in the year nj was on a crazy under run and they kept handing out lines where playing over on them made no logical sense even though they were "due " for an over. Sac was the darling of the early part of the year and faded ats for ages until a little mini run lately. Books always try to even out ats records. There isnt a detail they leave out.

infamousbacardi · 03-09-10, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

You do realize that books try to make teams ats records even out by the type of lines they hand out right. Earlier in the year nj was on a crazy under run and they kept handing out lines where playing over on them made no logical sense even though they were "due " for an over. Sac was the darling of the early part of the year and faded ats for ages until a little mini run lately. Books always try to even out ats records. There isnt a detail they leave out.

So the answer to the original question would be that the books DO notice the ATS records of teams and they do try and level stuff out?! But again then, if that's the case...betting against Milwaukee ATS the rest of the way could then prove to be worth some money?

lakerboy · 03-09-10, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

So the answer to the original question would be that the books DO notice the ATS records of teams and they do try and level stuff out?! But again then, if that's the case...betting against Milwaukee ATS the rest of the way could then prove to be worth some money?

Yes. The mil thing is good but you dont know that before the season and by the time you figured it out you wouldn have made 16 units. Now betting against them could be good buit wait until they lose that first ats game.

infamousbacardi · 03-09-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Yes. The mil thing is good but you dont know that before the season and by the time you figured it out you wouldn have made 16 units. Now betting against them could be good buit wait until they lose that first ats game.

Lakerboy...this is good stuff...my only counter idea would be that, if the books pay that much attention the lines and stuff, how is it that a team like Milwaukee can win 10 in a row ATS anyway? Wouldn't they have moved the lines for games like 7-10 to slightly higher than normal for the Bucks so they lose one or two?

Wilforth · 03-09-10, 05:04 PM

There's some interesting stuff here.

scottel · 03-09-10, 05:10 PM

look at FB..in NFL clev sucked early and no one wanted any part of them, then boom they cover last 7 I believe as oddsmakers have to adjust to get some action on Clev.....smart bettor would have bet the Browns last half of season....like NE when they were killing everyone, lines got up to high teens and low 20's even.....Im sure Vegas knows who is hot and not , just when joe pub thinks he cant lose and starts backing hot team or fading cold one he gets his ass handed to him

infamousbacardi · 03-09-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by scottel

look at FB..in NFL clev sucked early and no one wanted any part of them, then boom they cover last 7 I believe as oddsmakers have to adjust to get some action on Clev.....smart bettor would have bet the Browns last half of season....like NE when they were killing everyone, lines got up to high teens and low 20's even.....Im sure Vegas knows who is hot and not , just when joe pub thinks he cant lose and starts backing hot team or fading cold one he gets his ass handed to him

So you think from today forward...betting against Milwaukee ATS is $$ over the rest of the season!?

lakerboy · 03-09-10, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

Lakerboy...this is good stuff...my only counter idea would be that, if the books pay that much attention the lines and stuff, how is it that a team like Milwaukee can win 10 in a row ATS anyway? Wouldn't they have moved the lines for games like 7-10 to slightly higher than normal for the Bucks so they lose one or two?

Here are mil ats results

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team404011.html

Since Jan 18 the only good teams they beaten ats were cavs(no lebron) atl(big spread ) and Dallas(in dallas where mavs hardly ever cover).

If you look thru the ten most recent games lots of those wins came over bad teams and good spots for the bucks and you would think the books have been using mil in alot of those spots as the other teams were more likely the public choices.

infamousbacardi · 03-09-10, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Here are mil ats results covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team404011.html Since Jan 18 the only good teams they beaten ats were cavs(no lebron) atl(big spread ) and Dallas(in dallas where mavs hardly ever cover). If you look thru the ten most recent games lots of those wins came over bad teams and good spots for the bucks and you would think the books have been using mil in alot of those spots as the other teams were more likely the public choices.

That may be...but a win ATS is a win ATS, you know. I just think that, if your logic is true (that the books pay attention to this)...then you'd think the books want Milwaukee to not cover as much the rest of the way!? From today forward, you'd expect Milwaukee to lose more ATS than win the rest of the way home!?