This number seems way out of line to me. The Greek has THUNDER Total wins in March at 9.
I say UNDER 9 -120 is a very +EV PLay. They only have 16 games this month, so its going to take a 10-6 month to make this a loser. Just dont see them winning 10 games this month against this schedule. I see a 7-9 or 8-8 month here.
They play 8 games on the road where they arent that good, and their 8 home games are against some pretty tough competition. The 8 home games look like this. Coming to OKC is Sacramento, New Orleans, Utah, New Jersey, then SanAntonio, Houston, Lakers, Portland.
As far as the home games go, I see them going no better then 5-3 and I really doubt they do better then 4-4. They probably win tonight ( even though I think Sacramento covers easily and might pull the upset ) and against New Jersey. I think they lose at least 1 against Utah and New Orleans. So call that 3-1.
Then the other 4 home games are much tougher. In a period of 6 days (22nd -28th), they play Spurs, Rockets, Lakers, Blazers. These 4 games are within 6 days and are all against good teams. I think 1-3 is very likely here, but I give them 2-2 in these 4, so at best they are 5-3 at home this month.
Now the road games, I think they will be 3-5 at best. First, they play at Denver tommorow in a back to back and they are 6 1/2 point dogs which I dont even think they can cover. I say they lose that by 10 minimum and i call that a loss.
Then they go play at Clippers and at Sacramento. Honestly, I think they lose both these but I call it a split in these two games. One reason I think they struggle in these two games is that they play 4 games in 6 days here and these are the last two. They play 4 games from the 2nd to the 7th, so 4 games in a period of about 122 hours.
Anyways, that makes them 1-2 on road if they can get the one either at LAC or SAC, Then they play at Charlotte, Toronto, Boston, Indiana and Philly. I give them 2-3 here at best as I definitely think they lost at Boston and Charlotte, which means they have to win 2 of the other 3 just to get to 3-5 on the road.
The Thunder is 17-12 on the road this year and no doubt their road games are against lesser teams this month than their home games are, so I am not counting on the road games to kill them. Still they arent going to go better than 4-4 on the road at absolute best. They arent going to win at Denver, Boston or Charlotte and they will lose another road game or 3 as well.
They also arent going to kill at home. The competition is just too strong here. I think if everything, and I mean everything goes right for the Thunder this month they might be able to go 9-7 on the month for a push, still its a -120 play and I think the under 9 is a strong 70% likliehood, call the push a 23% shot and the over about a 7% shot ( even that I think is too high ).
There are also two runs this month where they play 4 games in 6 days, which I think has to take a toll on teams especially in those last two games.
I look for a 1-1 start these first two night, but wouldnt be shocked if OKC is 0-2 for the month after tommorow night.
I say UNDER 9 -120 is a very +EV PLay. They only have 16 games this month, so its going to take a 10-6 month to make this a loser. Just dont see them winning 10 games this month against this schedule. I see a 7-9 or 8-8 month here.
They play 8 games on the road where they arent that good, and their 8 home games are against some pretty tough competition. The 8 home games look like this. Coming to OKC is Sacramento, New Orleans, Utah, New Jersey, then SanAntonio, Houston, Lakers, Portland.
As far as the home games go, I see them going no better then 5-3 and I really doubt they do better then 4-4. They probably win tonight ( even though I think Sacramento covers easily and might pull the upset ) and against New Jersey. I think they lose at least 1 against Utah and New Orleans. So call that 3-1.
Then the other 4 home games are much tougher. In a period of 6 days (22nd -28th), they play Spurs, Rockets, Lakers, Blazers. These 4 games are within 6 days and are all against good teams. I think 1-3 is very likely here, but I give them 2-2 in these 4, so at best they are 5-3 at home this month.
Now the road games, I think they will be 3-5 at best. First, they play at Denver tommorow in a back to back and they are 6 1/2 point dogs which I dont even think they can cover. I say they lose that by 10 minimum and i call that a loss.
Then they go play at Clippers and at Sacramento. Honestly, I think they lose both these but I call it a split in these two games. One reason I think they struggle in these two games is that they play 4 games in 6 days here and these are the last two. They play 4 games from the 2nd to the 7th, so 4 games in a period of about 122 hours.
Anyways, that makes them 1-2 on road if they can get the one either at LAC or SAC, Then they play at Charlotte, Toronto, Boston, Indiana and Philly. I give them 2-3 here at best as I definitely think they lost at Boston and Charlotte, which means they have to win 2 of the other 3 just to get to 3-5 on the road.
The Thunder is 17-12 on the road this year and no doubt their road games are against lesser teams this month than their home games are, so I am not counting on the road games to kill them. Still they arent going to go better than 4-4 on the road at absolute best. They arent going to win at Denver, Boston or Charlotte and they will lose another road game or 3 as well.
They also arent going to kill at home. The competition is just too strong here. I think if everything, and I mean everything goes right for the Thunder this month they might be able to go 9-7 on the month for a push, still its a -120 play and I think the under 9 is a strong 70% likliehood, call the push a 23% shot and the over about a 7% shot ( even that I think is too high ).
There are also two runs this month where they play 4 games in 6 days, which I think has to take a toll on teams especially in those last two games.
I look for a 1-1 start these first two night, but wouldnt be shocked if OKC is 0-2 for the month after tommorow night.
