To score last basket, value?

[Jaug]

Is there any way a -107 line on either side of a NBA-game to score last could be value?

I'm thinking 8 point favs or so should get fouled late often and therefore score the last basket >51.8% (which is required).

What do you think?

[Intangible]

Seems too much like a coin toss

[williams22]

Is there any way a -107 line on either side of a NBA-game to score last could be value?

I'm thinking 8 point favs or so should get fouled late often and therefore score the last basket >51.8% (which is required).

What do you think?

I'd argue the opposite in that a team up by a lot relaxes at the end and will also tend to let the clock run out. I think it'd be a better bet for moderate favs in the -4 to -6 range.

[Jaug]

I'd argue the opposite in that a team up by a lot relaxes at the end and will also tend to let the clock run out. I think it'd be a better bet for moderate favs in the -4 to -6 range.

Well I guess this could be true.

I still think this could be value, how about -15 favorites or so?

[Glitch]

I'd argue the opposite in that a team up by a lot relaxes at the end and will also tend to let the clock run out. I think it'd be a better bet for moderate favs in the -4 to -6 range.

yeah i also feel that a team thats out of reach where the other team will give up fouling will just dribble it out to end the game.

[Justin7]

Do you have a database with spreads and play-by-play data to look at this?

[Jaug]

Do you have a database with spreads and play-by-play data to look at this?

No, I was hoping you had one

I guess since the bookie is offering it the chance of value is slim, but it should still be checked out.

[jasont]

There might be value on +10 dog to score last.

[eatdust11]

This is a tough call.. faves do allow easy layups quite often... +10 or more dogs probably score more often.. but faves of -5 or so might score last more often... interesting thoughts though.

[suicidekings]

No, I was hoping you had one

I guess since the bookie is offering it the chance of value is slim, but it should still be checked out.

Play by play data is hard to come by for the NBA. Seems like a ton of work to collect it for something that will inherently have a very high level of uncertainty. If you're thinking the wager will apply to particular spreads, I would start by looking at the correlation between Margin of Victory and the size of the spread in games.

However, I feel like you'd probably have better luck looking at totals for this, specifically the average PF/PA for teams in the 4Q.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-4th-quarter-margin

[Jaug]

I checked one team manually now at sportsline http://www.cbssports.com/nba/standings?tag=untagged where they got scheduele and then every game has a full play by play.

To get some kind of feel for it I took the team that I thought would be favorites most often, lakers. Lakers have scored last basket 33 times out of 60 this year for 55%, which is more than required 51.8%.

[Apexas]

Maybe there's value in teams with good buzzer beater shooters, like LA or Cleveland just to name two notables. I couldn't speculate on spread correlation, though. Let us know if you discover anything.

[Wilforth]

I think that's sheer gambling. How do you eke out an angle to that?