Bucks -1 tonight.
I want it to be known up front, this is a value pick...not to mention, there may be a little, "if you can't beat them, join them" here as well. The Bucks are playing the best basketball this team has played in 2 years...and as I sat at the bar last night and watched the Bucks take apart the Hornets, I have to think they are too much for the Pacers here. The Bucks destroyed the Hornets last night, with 2:00 minutes left in the 4th quarter, they were leading the Hornets in "points in the paint" by a score of 72-35. I don't think I've ever seen something like that in a NBA game. Perhaps in college that is more likely, where a team is just that far above the other in terms of talent, but that is the worst PIP beatdown I think I've ever seen. That helps us greatly tonight. Not only does that mean the Bucks are getting to the basket with ease, but that also means they didn't have to shoot the ball all too great to win. So, they didn't use it all up and leave it on the floor last night. That being said, this is a value pick, because they should be favored by 3 or 4, and the only reason they aren't, is because it's a B2B. Well, let's get into the stats.
As always, a quick look at the Sagarin rankings for any glaring differences in these teams. The Bucks check in today at 17th in the rankings, while the Pacers are 28th. They have nearly identical records against the top 10, 2-13 and 3-13...and they are similar against the top 16 as well, with the Bucks holding a slight eldge there. SOS is similar....the Predictor ranking, which is based on margin of victory/loss for every game they have played, has the Bucks ranked 16th, and the Pacers ranked 28th, very similar to their actual rankings overall. So, no huge differences actually, but the Bucks are clearly a better team as they are ranked 11 spots higher overall.
Recent games and injuries tells us that the Bucks are on the verge of winning 5 in a row for the first time since 2007. They have played the Pacers twice this year, and have won both games. Once at home, and once in Indianapolis...the Bucks won by 3 when they played @ Indy, and they won by 12 when they played in Milwaukee. However, the Bucks are a much improved team since the last time they played particularly with the addition of Salmons, the Bucks can taste the playoffs, and I think they'll want this win tonight. If they are to get into the playoffs, these are the types of games they have to win.
Home and away records may matter a small bit here....the Bucks are 10-19 on the road, and the Pacers are 12-15 at home. Clearly, the Bucks do struggle on the road, but against teams with losing records on the road, the Bucks are something like 8-4. They lose to good teams on the road, but they typically win against the lesser teams, clearly, the Pacers will fall into the lesser category. Also, a key factor in all of this Bucks' success has been the stellar play of Bogut. In the 2 games against the Pacers this year, Bogut is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds, so I fully expect him to get his share of action/stats tonight.
The other thing we have going for us here is that the Bucks were able to rest most of their key players last night down the stretch. I think Bogut left the game with about 7 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and never returned...Jennings was on the bench for close to the same time frame, etc. The Pacers have lost 6 of 8 at home, and even though Granger is back, I don't think it will be enough to beat the Bucks tonight. Despite playing last night, they will be more rested than a team usually is going into a B2B, as they didn't need much energy to plow the Hornets last night combined with the rest the stars got down the stretch. It's this simple tonight, if the Bucks care to win this game, they will. They are in the middle of a playoff hunt, and they have a solid coach who won't let that let down game happen. I think we have good value on the Bucks tonight, and hey, if you can't beat them, join them. Go Bucks tonight!
My Pick: Bucks -1 tonight @ the Pacers. GL tonight.
As always, a quick look at the Sagarin rankings for any glaring differences in these teams. The Bucks check in today at 17th in the rankings, while the Pacers are 28th. They have nearly identical records against the top 10, 2-13 and 3-13...and they are similar against the top 16 as well, with the Bucks holding a slight eldge there. SOS is similar....the Predictor ranking, which is based on margin of victory/loss for every game they have played, has the Bucks ranked 16th, and the Pacers ranked 28th, very similar to their actual rankings overall. So, no huge differences actually, but the Bucks are clearly a better team as they are ranked 11 spots higher overall.
Recent games and injuries tells us that the Bucks are on the verge of winning 5 in a row for the first time since 2007. They have played the Pacers twice this year, and have won both games. Once at home, and once in Indianapolis...the Bucks won by 3 when they played @ Indy, and they won by 12 when they played in Milwaukee. However, the Bucks are a much improved team since the last time they played particularly with the addition of Salmons, the Bucks can taste the playoffs, and I think they'll want this win tonight. If they are to get into the playoffs, these are the types of games they have to win.
Home and away records may matter a small bit here....the Bucks are 10-19 on the road, and the Pacers are 12-15 at home. Clearly, the Bucks do struggle on the road, but against teams with losing records on the road, the Bucks are something like 8-4. They lose to good teams on the road, but they typically win against the lesser teams, clearly, the Pacers will fall into the lesser category. Also, a key factor in all of this Bucks' success has been the stellar play of Bogut. In the 2 games against the Pacers this year, Bogut is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds, so I fully expect him to get his share of action/stats tonight.
The other thing we have going for us here is that the Bucks were able to rest most of their key players last night down the stretch. I think Bogut left the game with about 7 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and never returned...Jennings was on the bench for close to the same time frame, etc. The Pacers have lost 6 of 8 at home, and even though Granger is back, I don't think it will be enough to beat the Bucks tonight. Despite playing last night, they will be more rested than a team usually is going into a B2B, as they didn't need much energy to plow the Hornets last night combined with the rest the stars got down the stretch. It's this simple tonight, if the Bucks care to win this game, they will. They are in the middle of a playoff hunt, and they have a solid coach who won't let that let down game happen. I think we have good value on the Bucks tonight, and hey, if you can't beat them, join them. Go Bucks tonight!
My Pick: Bucks -1 tonight @ the Pacers. GL tonight.
Let's just hope we are here celebrating the victory! 
