Valuebetting (Fade material for you)

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  • Jaug
    SBR MVP
    • 01-11-09
    • 3087

    #1
    Valuebetting (Fade material for you)
    Ok, so i'm betting for value getting 1-2 extra points on the spread and total. I assume matchbook/pinnaclesports are currently the most correct lines and I look for value from there.

    The plays usually have about 1.5 extra points on the spread but they hit 45% overall over about 400 plays. That means you can either sell 1.5 points against my plays and win 55% at + money or play at the regular spread and win 57% or something like that.

    Tonight's plays were:

    Providence +9 - Not even close
    Seton hall -11 - Not even close
    Miami -7 - Not even close

    0-3 so far. Picks for tonight will be in this thread, so you can fade it.
  • Jaug
    SBR MVP
    • 01-11-09
    • 3087

    #2
    Three plays. Would strongly recommend staying away from these, or even fading. I think people will starting fading soon enough.

    Indiana +9 -110
    OKC@SAS O192.5 -110
    Minnesota +12.5 -110

    My prediction is that at least two are not even close.
    Comment
    • Jaug
      SBR MVP
      • 01-11-09
      • 3087

      #3
      4 NCAAB plays:

      Missouri -13 -110
      So Mississippi +5 -110
      New Mexico state -4.5 -110
      Bradley +3.5 -110


      A 3-4 night would be a success, since these plays have done so awful historically.
      Comment
      • HoulihansTX
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 02-12-09
        • 30566

        #4
        Do you actually bet these games?
        Comment
        • Jaug
          SBR MVP
          • 01-11-09
          • 3087

          #5
          Originally posted by HoulihansTX
          Do you actually bet these games?
          Yes I do, I have lost quite a bit betting this way but I consider it variance. I'm giving it one last chance because of the horrible win % over the first 400 plays.

          5-2 tonight, probably best night ever.
          Comment
          • Jaug
            SBR MVP
            • 01-11-09
            • 3087

            #6
            Two plays tonight (stay away or fade):

            Iowa +10 -110
            Western kentucky -9.5 -110
            Comment
            • Jaug
              SBR MVP
              • 01-11-09
              • 3087

              #7
              Looks like a 0-2 night with none of the plays even close, as usual.
              Comment
              • gwiz
                SBR MVP
                • 02-09-10
                • 1790

                #8
                why are you not fading
                Comment
                • Jaug
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-11-09
                  • 3087

                  #9
                  Originally posted by gwiz
                  why are you not fading
                  Simply because I assume the market is pricing the games correct. If I get Notre dame +12 at -110 right now, when pinny offers georgetown -11.5 at +110 I have to take it. Why it loses? No clue.
                  Comment
                  • Jaug
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-11-09
                    • 3087

                    #10
                    Two plays today:

                    Texas AM +1 -110 (sick line)
                    Illinois state +9 -125
                    Comment
                    • Jaug
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-11-09
                      • 3087

                      #11
                      Two more:
                      St johns +2.5 -110
                      Rice +22 -110
                      Comment
                      • Jaug
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-11-09
                        • 3087

                        #12
                        LSU +9 -110
                        Gonzaga -18.5 -110
                        Troy +3.5 -110
                        Villanova +5.5 -110
                        Centenary +4.5 -110
                        Pacific -6 -110
                        Comment
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