I have not seen any of the NBA spreads yet. I am going to give my opinion for what the spread should be, and then I am going to see which games have a great value. I did this once already and got about half right, but I am confident in my abilities because the games I get right I tend to also guess the reason for the win very accurately. Here I go.
Spurs @ 76ers
The 2007 champs barely squeaked out their game against Indiana after exceeding expectations in Denver. Now they are playing Philadelphia, who almost came back from a huge deficit against Toronto, but a flukish 4 point play put the game out of reach at the last second. I normally expect teams to play strong after losing a game they should have won. Since Philadelphia managed to get blown out by Miami, it is possible that they were looking ahead to San Antonio. When two teams from two different conferences play each other, I usually expect the team with the worse record of the two to win or at least cover. San Antonio won a low scoring game in their first meeting so the emotion favors Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a much faster team with more endurance, and they are coming off of 3 days rest to San Antonio’s 2. Furthermore, the game is in Philadelphia. That being said, the Spurs are a better team than the 76ers.
Estimated Line: Pick.
Nuggets @ Wizards
The Nuggets beat the most overrated team in the NBA last night on national television. Now with no rest they have no time to celebrate. They’ll have to go into Washington and try to remain focused and energized. Denver has already proven that they often play sluggishly in these situations. The Wizards are coming off a close loss to Charlotte and a win against Minnesota, so they will have momentum going into this game. The teams have not met this year, but last year Denver had was ahead for most of the games. However, in both games they were coming off wins against horrible teams on 2 days rest. This game will be different, and Denver will be caught off guard.
Estimated Line: Pick.
Cavs @ Bobcats. I am going to admit, I already saw the line for this one. -3.5 would have been a good line if Denver was playing the Bobcats today, and I would have taken the Bobcats. However, this seemingly low line doesn’t work for the Cavs. Every player on the Cavs sucks anyway other than Lebron. Lebron doesn’t get tired in just one day. Last year he played the Eastern Conference finals by himself. Sure, he lost, but he played well enough that I think he can beat the Bobcats. Plus, these incredibly low lines are only accurate if you win the big game the day before. If you lose the big game, you are still hungry for the win. If you win, you are overconfident because you just beat an amazing team.
Estimated Line: Cavs by 9.
Spurs @ 76ers
The 2007 champs barely squeaked out their game against Indiana after exceeding expectations in Denver. Now they are playing Philadelphia, who almost came back from a huge deficit against Toronto, but a flukish 4 point play put the game out of reach at the last second. I normally expect teams to play strong after losing a game they should have won. Since Philadelphia managed to get blown out by Miami, it is possible that they were looking ahead to San Antonio. When two teams from two different conferences play each other, I usually expect the team with the worse record of the two to win or at least cover. San Antonio won a low scoring game in their first meeting so the emotion favors Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a much faster team with more endurance, and they are coming off of 3 days rest to San Antonio’s 2. Furthermore, the game is in Philadelphia. That being said, the Spurs are a better team than the 76ers.
Estimated Line: Pick.
Nuggets @ Wizards
The Nuggets beat the most overrated team in the NBA last night on national television. Now with no rest they have no time to celebrate. They’ll have to go into Washington and try to remain focused and energized. Denver has already proven that they often play sluggishly in these situations. The Wizards are coming off a close loss to Charlotte and a win against Minnesota, so they will have momentum going into this game. The teams have not met this year, but last year Denver had was ahead for most of the games. However, in both games they were coming off wins against horrible teams on 2 days rest. This game will be different, and Denver will be caught off guard.
Estimated Line: Pick.
Cavs @ Bobcats. I am going to admit, I already saw the line for this one. -3.5 would have been a good line if Denver was playing the Bobcats today, and I would have taken the Bobcats. However, this seemingly low line doesn’t work for the Cavs. Every player on the Cavs sucks anyway other than Lebron. Lebron doesn’t get tired in just one day. Last year he played the Eastern Conference finals by himself. Sure, he lost, but he played well enough that I think he can beat the Bobcats. Plus, these incredibly low lines are only accurate if you win the big game the day before. If you lose the big game, you are still hungry for the win. If you win, you are overconfident because you just beat an amazing team.
Estimated Line: Cavs by 9.