Before I go into detail, I haven't back tested this, just found the numbers interesting.
I took the last 10 games from each team playing tonight and averaged out their score difference, here are the results.
Miami's average win/loss was by +1.7 points
Philly's average win/loss by +2 points
Line is Philly -2
Having said that my humble opinion is that by a 10 game rolling average Playing Philly would result in a push or a Miami ATS win.
New Jersey average win/loss was by -8 points
Charlotte average win/loss was by -2.2 points.
The line is Charlotte -11, too much for the NJ average of 8 point losses
Min Avg w/l was by -4.8 points
Det Avg w/l was by -6.1 points
The line is Detroit -5.5, too much for Min -4.8 avg loss not by much though
Dall avg w/l was by -0.60 points
OKC avg w/l was by +4.60 points
Line is OKC -4.5 which is just about right.
PhX avg w/l was by +2.0 points
Mem avg w/l was by -5.7 points
Line is PK. Looks like Phx should win here
NY avg w/l was by -6.2 points
Chi avg w/l was by -0.50 points
Line is Chi -6.5, not enough points to covers NY avg -6.2 points
Utah avg w/l was by +9.0 points
Hou avg w/l was by -1.4 points
Line is Utah -3.5. Should be more than enough points
Bos avg w/l was by +0.70 points
Sac avg w/l was by -5.80 points
Line is Bos -6 , too close to Sac's 5.8
Clipps avg w/l was by -10.2 points
Ports avg w/l was by -2.7 points
Line is Port -7, well within Clips losing ability
GS avg w/l was by -6.4 points
Lak avg w/l was by +7.4 points
Line is Lakes -13.5, not enough to cover GS losing average.
On another interesting note, if you take the numbers and add/subtract the plus/minus side you get close to the books line for some games, for example:
GS -6.4 average points, Lakers +7.4 points you get 13.8 which is close to the Lakers -13.5
Clippers -10.2 , ports -2.7 you get 7.5, close to Portland -7
Boston +0.70 to Sac -5.80 you get 6.5, close to Boston -6
NY -6.2, Chicago -0.50, you get 5.7, Close to Chicago -6.5
Dal -0.6, OKC +4.6, you get 5.2, Close to OKC -4.5
On the other games where there is a large variance, I'm guessing those are the ones to play.
Ie;
Miami +2 has a 1.7 variance
NJ +11 has a 5.2 variance
Minnesota +5.5 has a 6.8 variance
Phoenix PK has a 7.7 variance
Utah -3.5 has a 6.9 variance.
Like I said this hasn't been back tested AT ALL, just some interesting info.
I took the last 10 games from each team playing tonight and averaged out their score difference, here are the results.
Miami's average win/loss was by +1.7 points
Philly's average win/loss by +2 points
Line is Philly -2
Having said that my humble opinion is that by a 10 game rolling average Playing Philly would result in a push or a Miami ATS win.
New Jersey average win/loss was by -8 points
Charlotte average win/loss was by -2.2 points.
The line is Charlotte -11, too much for the NJ average of 8 point losses
Min Avg w/l was by -4.8 points
Det Avg w/l was by -6.1 points
The line is Detroit -5.5, too much for Min -4.8 avg loss not by much though
Dall avg w/l was by -0.60 points
OKC avg w/l was by +4.60 points
Line is OKC -4.5 which is just about right.
PhX avg w/l was by +2.0 points
Mem avg w/l was by -5.7 points
Line is PK. Looks like Phx should win here
NY avg w/l was by -6.2 points
Chi avg w/l was by -0.50 points
Line is Chi -6.5, not enough points to covers NY avg -6.2 points
Utah avg w/l was by +9.0 points
Hou avg w/l was by -1.4 points
Line is Utah -3.5. Should be more than enough points
Bos avg w/l was by +0.70 points
Sac avg w/l was by -5.80 points
Line is Bos -6 , too close to Sac's 5.8
Clipps avg w/l was by -10.2 points
Ports avg w/l was by -2.7 points
Line is Port -7, well within Clips losing ability
GS avg w/l was by -6.4 points
Lak avg w/l was by +7.4 points
Line is Lakes -13.5, not enough to cover GS losing average.
On another interesting note, if you take the numbers and add/subtract the plus/minus side you get close to the books line for some games, for example:
GS -6.4 average points, Lakers +7.4 points you get 13.8 which is close to the Lakers -13.5
Clippers -10.2 , ports -2.7 you get 7.5, close to Portland -7
Boston +0.70 to Sac -5.80 you get 6.5, close to Boston -6
NY -6.2, Chicago -0.50, you get 5.7, Close to Chicago -6.5
Dal -0.6, OKC +4.6, you get 5.2, Close to OKC -4.5
On the other games where there is a large variance, I'm guessing those are the ones to play.
Ie;
Miami +2 has a 1.7 variance
NJ +11 has a 5.2 variance
Minnesota +5.5 has a 6.8 variance
Phoenix PK has a 7.7 variance
Utah -3.5 has a 6.9 variance.
Like I said this hasn't been back tested AT ALL, just some interesting info.