Experienced cappers please give me your take. I'm currently just using a numbers based systems; working at a postive clip but i'm trying to improve it. thinking of incorporating trends with it. what do you guys think? appreciate the help
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Current trends are significant.Comment -
That is one type of play I will avoid--going against a trend--my lifesaver is usually playing Golden St. games over when playing teams that can also score/ Nuggets, Jazz,and the Kings to mention a few.Comment -
Trends are mostly chump i think cause lines are adjusted, but they can help of course. you gotta balance everything to how much it helps you.
Maybe you want to avoid a trend i can believe that.
gambling is a lot like ****ing bitches - if you do it without a condom (researching) youre ****edComment -
More the most part, no.Comment -
obviously be wary of like Back to backs and 3 in 4 stuff like that
some brothers see a referees stat and if like spurs are 8-1 when he reffing, & lets say the bro was playing against spurs, it might make him change his mind and make it a no-play
i dont really go that far and look at ref stats.Comment -
thanks guys i'll stick with numbersComment -
Trends that describe a team's current form have some merit. However most trends you see listed on betting websites like "10-2 at home while playing an out of conference team on a tuesday, etc..." are not worth your time. You need to be able to look at a trend and quantify how much relation it actually has to the game you're capping. That context is completely lost if you're just looking at box scores (or worse, trend sheets).Comment -
nope.Comment -
Trends definitely make sense don't just overlook them, but they must be current, if you look up in March and see that the Mavs have scored atleast 110 pts a game say 12 out of 15 games since they made the trade and they have Gstate coming up next on the road, it would make sense to take Gstate, the trends just need to be current,it wouldn't make sense to worry about previous years in most cases, good day.Comment -
Anything that is public knowledge is worthless.
Create your own angles. see how they do, then consistently upgrade.Comment -
They have fairly little valueComment -
heres a trend that i picked up
system: says to bet against home fave coming off SU road win as a dog.Comment -
Trends are meaningless by the time they become trends. If its a trend then it has already happened. By the time you try to bet trends then the books will have already adjusted.
Also by public knowledge I mean raw data. If you can not make raw data in to some type of resource, then they are just numbers.
In vegas everyday the books put out a Trend Sheet. It has a bunch of numbers.. last 5 this, ATS that. The books put those sheets out to induce betting, not b/c their is any helpful info. That is why books love the fact that info is more accessible to everyone, b/c it will induce betting. With the worthless info, the public thinks they have some type of edge, when actually they are holding on to info that everyone else has. So how can you have an edge?
You have to learn how to situational bet. Take BeanTownJims thread about betting the unders today. Most guys arent wise to that angle, but its a holiday angle that works about two-three times a year. You have to take those worthless numbers, and find real angles that are not so obvious. It takes time.Comment -
yea some trends deff are $$$ day rest is a good trend portland a great team on 0 days rest and had big upsets as underdog on 0 days rest and i found when betting over under if a teams are lower scoring on a certain amount of rest it is usally $$$$$
so watchout for the sixers heat under who are lower scoring teams on 3+ days rest and the nets bobcat sunder who are lower scoing on 3+ days restComment -
I see what you mean, appreciate the replyComment
