For the past three weeks, I've been testing and backtesting 26 subsets of my system and comparing those subsets to other "outside" factors. I've also been testing unit size variations in conjunction with the new data.
The system hasn't changed and still handicaps exactly the same way it has from the beginning, but the plays have been based upon the strongest 6 or 7 subsets in conjunction with the outside factors.
What I've uncovered is that the system plays range from very weak to very strong.
So, I'll be posting my system plays with unit designations for the next two weeks. I anticipate less than half as many plays as there are games. Some days there might not even be a play. Due to time constraints, I may not be able to post some plays until just before game time.
The units will range from (1x) to (8x), and are based upon the win percentage of the system subset. (There is no correlation to the previous "strong plays.") Unit assignations will be based upon the following chart.
<55% No Play
55-57% 1 Unit
58-60% 2
61-62% 3
63-65% 4
66-68% 5
69-70% 6
71-73% 7
74%+ 8
Based upon Kelly wagering and the ideas in post #80 of this thread, 55% has been arbitrarily designated as the minimum "1-Unit Value" due to the perceived 2.88% edge. All other units sizes grow from there. (If I made a mistake in that thread, the results of this test will surely reflect that.)
There will be 0% judgment required on my part. The system will dictate all plays and unit sizes.
Starts Tuesday.
*By the way, the system went 57-44 (56.4%) +7.87 Units for the previous two weeks and is 361-288 (56%) +40 Units since November 11, 2009.*
**I would warn everyone not to tail, due to the fact that this particular procedure is only partially proven and in some cases based upon small sample sizes. Not to mention the fact the unit designation aspect could blow up in my face. However, I am "projecting" positive results, somewhere in the 57% range and anywhere from +12 to +25 units.**
Here's hoping I don't completely embarrass myself.
The system hasn't changed and still handicaps exactly the same way it has from the beginning, but the plays have been based upon the strongest 6 or 7 subsets in conjunction with the outside factors.
What I've uncovered is that the system plays range from very weak to very strong.
So, I'll be posting my system plays with unit designations for the next two weeks. I anticipate less than half as many plays as there are games. Some days there might not even be a play. Due to time constraints, I may not be able to post some plays until just before game time.
The units will range from (1x) to (8x), and are based upon the win percentage of the system subset. (There is no correlation to the previous "strong plays.") Unit assignations will be based upon the following chart.
<55% No Play
55-57% 1 Unit
58-60% 2
61-62% 3
63-65% 4
66-68% 5
69-70% 6
71-73% 7
74%+ 8
Based upon Kelly wagering and the ideas in post #80 of this thread, 55% has been arbitrarily designated as the minimum "1-Unit Value" due to the perceived 2.88% edge. All other units sizes grow from there. (If I made a mistake in that thread, the results of this test will surely reflect that.)
There will be 0% judgment required on my part. The system will dictate all plays and unit sizes.
Starts Tuesday.
*By the way, the system went 57-44 (56.4%) +7.87 Units for the previous two weeks and is 361-288 (56%) +40 Units since November 11, 2009.*
**I would warn everyone not to tail, due to the fact that this particular procedure is only partially proven and in some cases based upon small sample sizes. Not to mention the fact the unit designation aspect could blow up in my face. However, I am "projecting" positive results, somewhere in the 57% range and anywhere from +12 to +25 units.**
Here's hoping I don't completely embarrass myself.
