Late line moves, early line moves, opening line moves, closing line moves. I've looked at every kind of line move imaginable, for both the NBA, NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF, NHL and MLB. I've looked at hundreds and hundreds of games--maybe thousands.
I've looked at RLM, reverse RLM, steam and reverse steam. You name it I've studied it, put it in spread sheets, whatever.
Conclusion:
I have found no conclusive evidence that any type of line move be it early, late, middle, opening, closing, RLM, reverse RLM, steam, reverse steam you name it to be of any significant advantage whatsoever.
Some ideas have shown positive expectation early on only to regress to the mean over larger samples.
To those who are using it, what they see, and what they do is a complete mystery to me, especially considering the fact that what appears to be some sort of positive line move is completely ignored in many situations.
It is my contention that bookies move the lines to try and balance their action, and I do not believe the theory that the books know who is going to win the games and then fiddle with the lines in order to attract money to the losing sides.
Books are in business to make money, and if they mange their stores correctly they should never have a losing year.
I do believe in smart money, but when and how they choose to bet is a closely guarded secret. Most of the time, in my opinion, they are looking for a certain number and when it shows up--they bet. Whether it be early, late or not at all. It's as simple as that.
And before anyone says, "well look at how well LakerBoy is doing just following line moves," let me just say that I don't believe for a moment that LB is making his handicapping decisions based solely on line movements. On many days he posts his thoughts about games well before the lines have had a chance to do anything, and for anyone who cares to check, these "pre-game" observations have a very strong track record.
Many, if not most of his plays are based on sound fundamental handicapping principles and his vast knowledge of the game. What if anything he sees in these mysterious squiggly line manifestations is known only to him. I can see nothing consistent or profitable in his line-movement procedures that I can put my finger on.
This is absolutely nothing against LakerBoy. I have no idea how he does what he does. It's just that I can't make heads nor tails of it.
If anyone, anywhere can show me concrete evidence that following line moves has any kind of consistent, positive expectation--in any sport--over a significant sample, I'll do a full mea culpa and eat crow. I would really love to be proven wrong.
But after spending dozens and dozens and dozens of hours studying line moves of every kind...I just don't anticipate that happening.
I've looked at RLM, reverse RLM, steam and reverse steam. You name it I've studied it, put it in spread sheets, whatever.
Conclusion:
I have found no conclusive evidence that any type of line move be it early, late, middle, opening, closing, RLM, reverse RLM, steam, reverse steam you name it to be of any significant advantage whatsoever.
Some ideas have shown positive expectation early on only to regress to the mean over larger samples.
To those who are using it, what they see, and what they do is a complete mystery to me, especially considering the fact that what appears to be some sort of positive line move is completely ignored in many situations.
It is my contention that bookies move the lines to try and balance their action, and I do not believe the theory that the books know who is going to win the games and then fiddle with the lines in order to attract money to the losing sides.
Books are in business to make money, and if they mange their stores correctly they should never have a losing year.
I do believe in smart money, but when and how they choose to bet is a closely guarded secret. Most of the time, in my opinion, they are looking for a certain number and when it shows up--they bet. Whether it be early, late or not at all. It's as simple as that.
And before anyone says, "well look at how well LakerBoy is doing just following line moves," let me just say that I don't believe for a moment that LB is making his handicapping decisions based solely on line movements. On many days he posts his thoughts about games well before the lines have had a chance to do anything, and for anyone who cares to check, these "pre-game" observations have a very strong track record.
Many, if not most of his plays are based on sound fundamental handicapping principles and his vast knowledge of the game. What if anything he sees in these mysterious squiggly line manifestations is known only to him. I can see nothing consistent or profitable in his line-movement procedures that I can put my finger on.
This is absolutely nothing against LakerBoy. I have no idea how he does what he does. It's just that I can't make heads nor tails of it.
If anyone, anywhere can show me concrete evidence that following line moves has any kind of consistent, positive expectation--in any sport--over a significant sample, I'll do a full mea culpa and eat crow. I would really love to be proven wrong.
But after spending dozens and dozens and dozens of hours studying line moves of every kind...I just don't anticipate that happening.
