NBA Key Numbers

[Dexter]

so in the NFL its pretty clear - 3, 7, 10 and 14 are the major key numbers. sharp bettors will take notice when a favorite sits on -2-2.5 all week and then play the dog (esp if the public is siding with the favorite).

in basketball, key numbers are not as clear, and probably not as valuable due to the constant scoring changes almost every possession.

i have no data to back this up, but my opinion is that 7 is a good key number in the nba. this is a point differential (3 possessions) where the team down usually stops fouling and concedes the loss.

thus i do take notice when a favorite sits on 6-6.5 all day. i will sometimes then side with the dog if i have other angles that apply.

thoughts?

[lakerboy]

also when a team is a 5 point dog just take them

[Dexter]

yup - i agree with that. i kinda felt my grizzlie bet was doomed last night staring at that 5 all day.

in football i always tend to take a 5 pt dog.

[SpreadSniper]

id like to see the variance between 6-6.5 win ratio vs 7-7.5 win ratio.... for some reason it feels like 7-7.5 favs get the job done more often than not. I may be wrong though.....

[lakerboy]

Atlanta is a 5.5 pt fave in washington. I know its 4 in 5 but the wiz were really tired at the end last night.

[Dexter]

Atlanta is a 5.5 pt fave in washington. I know its 4 in 5 but the wiz were really tired at the end last night.

i wasnt loving that play - glad it was cancelled...

[og4667]

I say 4 and 7 for favs and 11, 12, 13 for dogs

[suicidekings]

For Dogs, I'll typically play the ML when the spread +3.5 or less, and the spread (or a ML/spread combo) for +4 or greater. I don't see the point in betting a team to lose by 3 points (1 possession) or less.

For Faves, I find a spread of between -4 and -6 inherently suspicious and usually avoid them. They describe a game that's not a definitive win but requires a 2 possession win to cover. Sketchy...