A Tip to Avoid Vig / Juice

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  • linedrivr
    SBR MVP
    • 01-04-10
    • 2223

    #1
    A Tip to Avoid Vig / Juice
    I got this tip from an oldtimer and have been using it for the last 25 years with great success in baskets. I thought I would share. Obviously, it isn't for everyone so no flaming is necessary. if your disciplined, study so you can choose your ML team wisely, it will save you juice on your losing regular plays which saves you money over the course of a season.

    If there is a team on the board that day (NBA or College) that you are 99% sure wins the game straight up, parlay that team on the ML with your regular lined play or plays for that day. 2 teamers only. use the same amount you normally would on your straight bets. The play will be even odds to plus odds for you depending on the ML team odds you chose.

    I always choose a team playing at home with a ML of -450 to -1600. If there isn't a team on the board that day that you feel 99% sure wins on the court, then you don't parlay that day. just straight bet as you normally would @ -105 / -110.

    I can find a NCAA or NBA ML play that i'm 99% confident wins on the court on average of 4-5 days per week. I have picked one ML loser this entire NBA & NCAA basketball season which caused me to lose all 3 of my wagers that day. It just happened on 02/01/10 using Akron -900. with that said, it rarely happens that your ML choice will lose your plays for you. Now I am just like everyone else when it comes to regular plays, I win some, I lose some and some end in a tie. Just keep your winners @ 50%+......

    the advantage: no vig / juice on your plays which will help you grow your bankroll faster assuming you invest using money management techniques and are hitting 50% or better.

    the disadvantage: if you pick the wrong team for your ML play, you lose all your bets that day. this is why you choose your team carefully as you would be marrying this team on the ML to all your other regular lined plays. never force choose a ML team. it's either on the board that day or it isn't. If it isn't, you straight bet your plays that day. You need to be 99% confident in your ML pick or you pass. Simple rules.

    hope this helps someone make more money or at least saves you some on your losses.
  • NBAStats
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-18-10
    • 665

    #2
    The advantage you quoted is non-existent, and rather is a disadvantage. Instead of avoiding vig you are actually paying it twice. The money line has vig built in, and a parlay has big vig built in.
    Comment
    • freeVICK
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-21-08
      • 7114

      #3
      Originally posted by NBAStats
      The advantage you quoted is non-existent, and rather is a disadvantage. Instead of avoiding vig you are actually paying it twice. The money line has vig built in, and a parlay has big vig built in.

      +1
      Comment
      • linedrivr
        SBR MVP
        • 01-04-10
        • 2223

        #4
        you are correct and i should have been more clear....however by using 2 teams on my wager with one of them having a 99% chance of winning based on my ML daily pick, I avoid paying 10% vig on my losing wagers. Like I said, it isn't for everybody but it works for me. Thought I would share.

        assuming 1 ML loss per season, here is some season totals using the standard -110 vs the ML parlay method (for this example, I used even money on the parlays even though most are in the +).

        Season - 6 months - 26 weeks x 3 plays a day average = 546 plays. using a winning percentage of 53%.

        record: 289 wins / 257 losses @ 53%

        Standard Regular straight bet -110 /100 per play
        289 x 100 = +28,900
        257 x -110 = -28,270

        season winnings = +630



        Using a ML 2 team Parlay - 546 plays = 21 per week
        ML parlays - 4 days a week = 12 plays per week x 26 weeks = 312

        record: 165 wins - 147 losses @ 53% (added 3 losses for the one day of a ML loser)
        162 x 100 = +16,200
        150 x 100 = -15,000

        season total on parlay plays = +1200


        Reg straight plays @ -110 - 3 days a week = 9 plays per week x 26 weeks = 234

        record 124 wins - 110 losses @ 53%
        124 x 100 = +12,400
        110 x -110 = -12,100

        season total on reg plays for the 3 days a week no ML team fit = +300

        Season ML system winnings - 1200 + 300 = +1500

        Using the conservative examples above for a $100 player, ML parlay method added $870 to your bankroll for a season verses the standard straight bets.

        maybe this helps someone on this forum pad their bankroll.
        Comment
        • linedrivr
          SBR MVP
          • 01-04-10
          • 2223

          #5
          Originally posted by NBAStats
          The advantage you quoted is non-existent, and rather is a disadvantage. Instead of avoiding vig you are actually paying it twice. The money line has vig built in, and a parlay has big vig built in.
          correct....the advantage should have read your bankroll will be bigger at the end of the season using a ML play parlayed with your regular lined plays. and since my bankroll is bigger using my way verses the standard -110 straight bet, I call that an advantage....other people may call it something else. to each their own.
          now lets go win some $ tonight!
          Comment
          • linedrivr
            SBR MVP
            • 01-04-10
            • 2223

            #6
            for the record, I will be using Ohio St -1450 tonight as my ML partner to my regular plays.
            Comment
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