Cleveland -10.5

[lyon804]

Guys, I know many here like this play including myself. I would like to first warn you before you go to heavy on it tonite. Keep in mind before what I am about to tell you I will still make the play becasue it's the right play to make in this game. However, I would think it would be wise to scale this play down a tad.

OK, I checked over the referee matchups tonite and have found we don't have a homer in the group

Joe Crawford-ref is 16-18 S/U and 11-21-2 ATS home team and just 1-5 ATS when home team is favored by 10+ pts

Courtney Kirkland-ref is 20-13 S/U and 13-19-1 ATS home team and just 3-5 ATS when the home team is favored by 10+pts

Derek Richardson-ref is 21-15 S/U and 17-17-2 ATS home team and just 2-4 ATS when home team is favored by 10+pts

So all total this crew is just 57-46 S/U and 41-57-5 ATS for the home team and just 6-14 ATS whe home team is favored by 10+pts.

Now, I am not trying to persuade your action as I will not change my play based on ref assignments, but I will scale back my action accordingly. If the information is strong enough like in this case it will dictate my unit sizes. Before this information I was thinking very large on the Cavs. Now, this will more than likely become a medium play such as a 3-5 units. I had 10+ on my mind last nite.

Also, I am about to get on a touchy subject here.. Don't think for one minute that the league office's and Vegas didn't have a direct hand in this matchup of referee's. These guys were assigned here for a reason.I don't believe in coincidence. You usually have at least one homer in the bunch and they didn't offer one at all this time. Let's not forget the Cavs are the superior team here, but it doesn't take much to chage the outcome of the game. Simply get one or two of the Cavs starters in foul trouble and let the Grizz hack away at the Cavs. Also loose balls that are going out of bounds don't give the Cavs any calls and you could easily bring this game within 10pts. I am sure vegas doesn't want to take a hit here as all the sharper players and heavy hitters are pounding the Cavs. For the inexperienced bettor they feel like +10.5 is alot, but quite frankly in this spot that is nothing and anybody that knows the game understands that.


Anyway fellas I reccomend you tread lightly here. I would never let the ref matchups dictate my action totally if I make a play, but I follow the ref matchups closely and if you bet against them nite in and nite out you will lose.

[lyon804]

When I finished this just a few minutes ago all 10 SBR odds books were -10.5 across the board. As I type 7 have dropped the line to -10... Am I psychic or just have the ability to move the markets??

[Dexter]

good info lyons....i never look at ref stats but i should.

[SOUP]

Anyone like the over of 200?

[craig4nr]

Excellent info. Thanks.

[lyon804]

good info lyons....i never look at ref stats but i should.

Like I said, I wouldn't base my play on the refs. I do however adjust my unit size accordingly. I have seen instances just like this when the ref matchups was not favorable and the team such as the Cavs goes and runs the other team out of the gym. For me it's not game changing information, but saying that it is also information to not be ignored eiter. Anyways, that's how I use it. Take it for what it;s worth.

Dexter, I wish I would have a way to track all my plays based on unit sizes in accordance to my stance on the referee's. I can't give you any concrete numbers, but since I have adopted this strategy it has improved my numbers. The information is very subjective most of the time and you rarely see a matchup quite this bad in regards to home team hating referee's. I don't think this is accidental in an of itself. NBA is rigged to a certain degree. Doesn't mean you can't make money. In fact once the patters are learned it is something that is easiliy identifyable. The more I think about it the less I like the Cavs here and it has nothing to do with their ability or this being the right play. Vegas, very well might have called in a favor. Money talks and bullshit walks.

[smog613]

good info...

[ron8698]

thanks lyon804 , good info , what do you consider a " homer " ? . i know refs can control games and have in the past , i was thinking big on cavs

[lyon804]

thanks lyon804 , good info , what do you consider a " homer " ? . i know refs can control games and have in the past , i was thinking big on cavs

A homer is just basic slang for a ref that tends to be favorable for the home team. As you see by the numbers we have none here.

[lyon804]

I posted this information for all. It might cost some of you some money if you follow it. It might save some of you money. Cleveland is the play for a variety of reasons. At the end of the day I would rather kick myself over not getting all I should rather than kick myself because I went large in the face of some glaring trends and should have known better. At the end of the day this is gambling and nothing is hardlyy ever just perfect. This game fits as being perfect, but the ref matchups definitely change it some. Enough were I will take this down. And by waiting I am probably gonna get a better number than the opener.

[bilbaino19]

Thanks!

[Quagmire27]

I resent being labeled an "inexperienced bettor"

[GGPLAYER]

But what if the money is coming in on Memphis? Right now there are a higher % of bets being placed on them.......I know that does not always mean more money. But what does the league and books have to gain if they put in refs which will favor the road team and at the end they will lose more money? I think Memphis winning last night is fresh in the minds of public bettors and than the see 10 points and think easy money. Knowing the refs SU and ATS records is interesting. Something I have seen and heard of for baseball but never with basketball.

[GGPLAYER]

When I finished this just a few minutes ago all 10 SBR odds books were -10.5 across the board. As I type 7 have dropped the line to -10... Am I psychic or just have the ability to move the markets??

Not sure if you are aware but there are 29 books on SBR odds. The opening line was 10.5 and now 28 of the 29 are showing 10 as the current line. I'm not sure if this supports your case of not. Do you believe with the line dropping it shows someone they should play on Memphis in this case?

[williams22]

As a Cleveland fan I can tell you seeing Joey Crawford is on the game is never a good sign. The Cavs play physical, but clean, basketball. It seems Crawford always calls a ton of fouls against the Cavs. Also, Memphis is hot right now, and Cleveland is without both PGs, so I'm kind of surprised the line is so high here.

[Snowball]

the referee factor is equalized because it's a LeBron game.
LeBron gets 50% less fouls than the avg. NBA player.

[williams22]

the referee factor is equalized because it's a LeBron game.
LeBron gets 50% less fouls than the avg. NBA player.

Not quite 50%, but yes, he fouls less. It's because of the way he plays defense though, not because of referee favoritism. I'm at school right now so I don't have the link, but I'll post a great article later.

[lyon804]

But what if the money is coming in on Memphis? Right now there are a higher % of bets being placed on them.......I know that does not always mean more money. But what does the league and books have to gain if they put in refs which will favor the road team and at the end they will lose more money? I think Memphis winning last night is fresh in the minds of public bettors and than the see 10 points and think easy money. Knowing the refs SU and ATS records is interesting. Something I have seen and heard of for baseball but never with basketball.

Percentages are highly overrated in terms of real money. Joe Public might be on Memphis, but more money will be wagered on Cleveland when it's said it done imo. Pay attention to the late money moves right before this game goes off the board and you will know what the big money thinks. I know this sounds crazy saying that Memphis is the public play and the Cavs are the sharp play since Cleveland has a much bigger following than Memhis and a certain amount of fans will be Cleveland regardless of the line and matchup. I am only voicing my opinions of course. If they were more than that chances are I would be too successful wasting my time on a forum I would choose to live a carribean lifestlyle instead.

At the end of the day none of us really knows what will happen in this game. I wouldn't be shocked if the cavs won by 25pts tonite.I also wouldn't be shocked if they loss the game all together. All you can do is make the right call and hope for the best. If you make the right call enough times you win money. Me personally I make the right call way more times than not and I am telling everybody Cleveland is the right call, but after seeing this ref information and reading an article I just read I am starting to doubt this play alot. At this rate I might put $100 on Cleveland total and that is about a 1/10 of what I originally had in mind.

[williams22]

Lyon, any chance you can find Joey Crawford's stats when reffing Cavs games? I know I hate him more than any single ref in the league, but I don't have the numbers to back that up or refute it.

[Chateaugay]

This is the best thread I have seen on SBR today. Thank you for taking the time to share the info

[lyon804]

Lyon, any chance you can find Joey Crawford's stats when reffing Cavs games? I know I hate him more than any single ref in the league, but I don't have the numbers to back that up or refute it.

here it is covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_referees_3.html

just shows the last 10 matchups reffing the cavs dating back to 2008 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS.

[lyon804]

This is the best thread I have seen on SBR today. Thank you for taking the time to share the info

your welcome. the info is out there, but rather it does a bit a good remains to be seen. If the cavs blow them away the info was a hinderance at best.

[lakerboy]

This is the only game tonight im not betting on.

[Diesel79]

Cleveland -10..... Memphis won against the Lakers yesterday so I think they might not show up tonight

[pats3peat]

its good infromation - thanks lyons...
And AT WORST, someone will come and say "oh this doesnt mean much"
I think thats wrong because at least this tells us we are not having any homers like you said - This game wont be called in favor of lebron james - thats a big deal.

[pats3peat]

what article did you read on the cavs?

[lyon804]

The Article about Mike Brown wanting to play close game

what article did you read on the cavs?

Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown says he'd prefer close wins, but he's definitely enjoying his team's recent stretch of blowout victories.
The NBA-leading Cavaliers look to extend their season-high winning streak to nine Tuesday night when they aim to continue their run of home success against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Cleveland (38-11), which moved one game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers for the league's best record after the defending champions lost 95-93 at Memphis (26-21) on Monday, has won its last three by an average of 20.0 points. The Cavaliers won the first five games on their current streak by a margin of 3.4 per game.

"The more close games you win, the tougher you can become because when you have close games down the stretch it puts a mental and physical stress on you that you have to try to deal with," Brown said following Monday's practice. "Close games are good, but every once in a while, blowouts are also fun because you don't have to worry about going through that added stress."

There wasn't much stress in Sunday's 114-89 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Cavaliers tied an NBA record with 11 3-pointers in the opening 12 minutes, propelling them to a franchise-best 46 points in a quarter.

LeBron James, the league's third-leading scorer with 29.4 points per game, hit five 3s and scored 23 of his 32 points in the first quarter as Cleveland won eight in a row for the first time since a 13-game run March 7-31.

"There's no description of a player getting into the zone like that. It just happens," James said. "And when it happens, everything you put up, you feel like it's going in."

James was likely in that zone in Memphis on Dec. 8, hitting four 3-pointers and scoring 43 points, but it wasn't enough to lead his club to victory. After Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley scooped in a shot with three seconds remaining in overtime, James missed a 30-footer at the buzzer and Cleveland fell 111-109.

Since snapping a seven-game slide to the Cavaliers and a six-game overtime skid in that contest, the Grizzlies are 10-4 in games decided by six points or fewer.

Memphis, though, has dropped four of five on the road as well as its last five visits to Cleveland. The Grizzlies also must face a Cavaliers team that's won 17 of 18 at Quicken Loans Arena.

"I told the guys in the locker room that it is not like college. You can't go play Sacred Heart tomorrow, you have the Cleveland Cavaliers," Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins told the team's official Web site Monday. "It just keeps coming. That's the beauty of this game. That is what competition is all about. If you are a competitor, you will get your juices flowing again tomorrow."

Memphis will likely need another big game from All-Star forward Zach Randolph to win its first game in Cleveland since a 122-115 double-overtime victory on Nov. 29, 2003. The 2003-04 season was also the last time the Grizzlies swept their annual two-game series with the Cavs.

Randolph, who had 32 points, 14 rebounds and four steals in the Dec. 8 victory over the Cavaliers, has posted a double-double in each of his last five games, averaging 22.6 points and 14.8 boards in that span. He is one of two players in the NBA, along with Toronto's Chris Bosh, averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game on the season.



Not something you want to read if you were thinking about taking the Cavs.

[lyon804]

Bumping this for those interested to read the article above.

[williams22]

Here's the article I mentioned before about Lebron fouling: Link

It's a long read but well worth it if you actually enjoy discussing the finer points of basketball.

[specialedbob]

If they beat 2 top teams in a row, they should be champions.

[lyon804]

Here's the article I mentioned before about Lebron fouling: Link

It's a long read but well worth it if you actually enjoy discussing the finer points of basketball.

I checked it out. It was a good read and anybody that watches the games knows he's not getting the treatment. He is just rarely out of posistion and when he is his athleticism and wing span more than make up for it.

[tnnt]

Lyon, if the sharps are on Cleveland, and 60% of the public is on Memphis, why is the line dropping at most books? Which side are the sharps really on? I thought it s the sharps that dictate line movement, not the public. Perhaps sharps are having second thought about the spread and didnt put that much money on Cleveland? The line drop suggests more money are on Memphis isnt it?

[killough34]

memphis here

[Mac4Lyfe]

Cav's are blowing teams out like last year. I'm all over the Cav's tonight. 1st quarter, 1st half and game.

[wookieehumper]

i put a small play on the cavs -10... a lot of points to spot, but i think the grizzlies are overvalued after the lakers win