Hornets' Chris Paul to have knee surgery
The buzz from New Orleans is point guard Chris Paul will have his left knee scoped and miss at least four weeks, and probably more. The All-Star's absence won't help a Hornets that is eighth in the Western Conference with Oklahoma City, Memphis and Houston close behind. The Thunder and Grizzlies are two big surprises out West, bringing 11 viable playoff teams to the table heading into the season's second half.
As if it weren’t already hard enough to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. This year, the rebuilding of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies gives us a grand total of 11 teams vying for the eight available playoff seeds.
They can’t all make it in. And with only 3.5 games separating fourth place from 11th place, it’s very likely someone from today’s Top 8 won’t be there in April.
Just like we did last week for the Eastern Conference, we’re forecasting which team is most likely to make a run and which team is headed for the drop. Consider fading and following these two clubs in the second half of the season.
Fade: New Orleans Hornets
Although the Hornets (26-21 SU, 23-24 ATS) are in eighth place as we go to press, it was very tempting to put the Phoenix Suns (28-21 SU, 25-24 ATS) in this position. Among the positive traits for the Hornets: They’ve played 26 away games to only 21 at the New Orleans Arena, and they’re on a healthy 13-5 run (11-7 ATS).
But it looks like you can throw those positives out the window. According to Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo! Sports, point guard Chris Paul is going to have his knee scoped on Monday and should be out 1-2 months.
This is a crushing blow to the Hornets’ playoff hopes. Paul hasn’t played at quite his usual MVP level since returning from an eight-game absence, during which New Orleans went 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS. But even with a gimpy knee, Paul is one of the best players in the game.
His 26.4 PER ranks fourth overall in the NBA and first among point guards. Paul’s back-up, rookie Darren Collison, has a 13.8 PER and a -4.5 Roland Rating (Paul’s is +9.3). The difference between the two should make itself more obvious over 1-2 months than it did over eight games.
Speaking of those eight games, their 6-2 ATS record sans Paul suggests New Orleans could actually be a viable follow candidate with Collison manning the point. All the more reason to fade the Suns instead at 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests. But look at those point differentials: +2.1 for Phoenix and -1.0 for New Orleans. That divide is only going to grow larger without Paul in the lineup.
We’ll get a very good idea what to expect from both teams when they meet Monday night; betting odds were pending confirmation of Paul’s injury status.
Follow: Oklahoma City Thunder
Sticking with point differentials, the Thunder (26-21 SU, 28-19 ATS) are at +2.7, the same as the 30-17 Dallas Mavericks. This is a young team getting stronger and learning more as the season progresses. The public has yet to fully adjust, either, as OKC’s small market helps protect their betting value. The Thunder are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
Oklahoma City’s success begins with Kevin Durant (24.7 PER). The former Texas Longhorn has made huge strides in each of his three seasons in the NBA; his current PER ranks No. 6 overall in the league, ahead of Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant. Durant has a stronger supporting cast than Paul, including point guard Russell Westbrook (15.9 PER, +0.8 Roland) and rookie shooting guard James Harden (14.7 PER, +2.1 Roland).
The Thunder also made a shrewd move by trading with Utah for back-up pivot Eric Maynor (13.6 PER, +4.7 Roland in OKC). This is a sufficiently deep team to make it through the second half of the season with fresher legs than their Western competition.
Strong consideration was given to both the Grizzlies and the Houston Rockets in this position. Memphis is much like Oklahoma City, a young team rebuilding after leaving the Pacific Northwest behind. Houston has some primo trade bait in Tracy McGrady who could land a few talented reinforcements. But each team has a dead-even point differential of 0.0 as we go to press. They simply haven’t performed as well as the Thunder, and that’s likely to continue throughout the spring.
The buzz from New Orleans is point guard Chris Paul will have his left knee scoped and miss at least four weeks, and probably more. The All-Star's absence won't help a Hornets that is eighth in the Western Conference with Oklahoma City, Memphis and Houston close behind. The Thunder and Grizzlies are two big surprises out West, bringing 11 viable playoff teams to the table heading into the season's second half.
As if it weren’t already hard enough to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. This year, the rebuilding of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies gives us a grand total of 11 teams vying for the eight available playoff seeds.
They can’t all make it in. And with only 3.5 games separating fourth place from 11th place, it’s very likely someone from today’s Top 8 won’t be there in April.
Just like we did last week for the Eastern Conference, we’re forecasting which team is most likely to make a run and which team is headed for the drop. Consider fading and following these two clubs in the second half of the season.
Fade: New Orleans Hornets
Although the Hornets (26-21 SU, 23-24 ATS) are in eighth place as we go to press, it was very tempting to put the Phoenix Suns (28-21 SU, 25-24 ATS) in this position. Among the positive traits for the Hornets: They’ve played 26 away games to only 21 at the New Orleans Arena, and they’re on a healthy 13-5 run (11-7 ATS).
But it looks like you can throw those positives out the window. According to Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo! Sports, point guard Chris Paul is going to have his knee scoped on Monday and should be out 1-2 months.
This is a crushing blow to the Hornets’ playoff hopes. Paul hasn’t played at quite his usual MVP level since returning from an eight-game absence, during which New Orleans went 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS. But even with a gimpy knee, Paul is one of the best players in the game.
His 26.4 PER ranks fourth overall in the NBA and first among point guards. Paul’s back-up, rookie Darren Collison, has a 13.8 PER and a -4.5 Roland Rating (Paul’s is +9.3). The difference between the two should make itself more obvious over 1-2 months than it did over eight games.
Speaking of those eight games, their 6-2 ATS record sans Paul suggests New Orleans could actually be a viable follow candidate with Collison manning the point. All the more reason to fade the Suns instead at 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests. But look at those point differentials: +2.1 for Phoenix and -1.0 for New Orleans. That divide is only going to grow larger without Paul in the lineup.
We’ll get a very good idea what to expect from both teams when they meet Monday night; betting odds were pending confirmation of Paul’s injury status.
Follow: Oklahoma City Thunder
Sticking with point differentials, the Thunder (26-21 SU, 28-19 ATS) are at +2.7, the same as the 30-17 Dallas Mavericks. This is a young team getting stronger and learning more as the season progresses. The public has yet to fully adjust, either, as OKC’s small market helps protect their betting value. The Thunder are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
Oklahoma City’s success begins with Kevin Durant (24.7 PER). The former Texas Longhorn has made huge strides in each of his three seasons in the NBA; his current PER ranks No. 6 overall in the league, ahead of Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant. Durant has a stronger supporting cast than Paul, including point guard Russell Westbrook (15.9 PER, +0.8 Roland) and rookie shooting guard James Harden (14.7 PER, +2.1 Roland).
The Thunder also made a shrewd move by trading with Utah for back-up pivot Eric Maynor (13.6 PER, +4.7 Roland in OKC). This is a sufficiently deep team to make it through the second half of the season with fresher legs than their Western competition.
Strong consideration was given to both the Grizzlies and the Houston Rockets in this position. Memphis is much like Oklahoma City, a young team rebuilding after leaving the Pacific Northwest behind. Houston has some primo trade bait in Tracy McGrady who could land a few talented reinforcements. But each team has a dead-even point differential of 0.0 as we go to press. They simply haven’t performed as well as the Thunder, and that’s likely to continue throughout the spring.
