Ive been saying for a while on this forum how every time a key player is injured their team wins ATS. I would like to start keeping better track of it and see how it does. It is difficult to come up with specific rules though for what is a play and what isn't. I think we only get an advantage if it is the first game that the player misses. It also has to be a key player and sometimes that is difficult to classify as well. It also has to be a fairly well publicized injury to make sure that the public is aware of it and the oddsmakers have adjusted it to reflect public perception. I will try to post in here daily but if you guys come up with one please post it in here. I sometimes get lazy and don't do all my homework. Hopefully someone other than me is interested in this.
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Some recent examples off the top of my head:
Chris Paul is out line goes from 5 to 7.5 at Memphis they win straight up
Carmelo was out the other night in Houston and they won straight up as 2.5 point dogs
Tony Parker out against Memphis spurs coverComment -
What's Portland's record since Roy went down? Tonight they won outright as 8.5 dog in Dallas. But that really doesn't mean shit. Dallas is 1-11 at home over their last 12 home games ATS.
Cuban's team is an effin joke.Comment -
You make a good point but Roy's situation has been going on for a while now and everyone knows that the Blazers can get it done without him. Im not sure how much of an advantage there is here. I am curious as to what Portland's ATS record is when he doesn't play?Comment -
Carmelo was out last night vs OKC, OKC rolled.Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
Does the Nets' win over the Clips without Devin Harris count? I don't even know if a Nets win matters here, it's far and few in between...Comment -
You are correct. However, Denver won and covered without Carmelo the game before so there was no advantage to be had in the second game imo. This is all experimental like I said I don't have any strict rules to follow. Beasley was one that was discussed a little in your thread earlier. I still bet on Milwaukee though I didn't think Beasley was the type of player to move lines.
I believe this is a good example. Has he had injury problems off and on all year though? Its hard to figure out anything when it comes to the Nets.Comment -
I think the warriors were alright without MontaComment -
AgreedComment -
harrington's out for NY, 2nd leading scorer for the team. they didn't cover tonight, but will play them against wolves tomorrow.Comment -
Two reasons why backing a team the first night a starter is out is a great idea:
1) Books and public ALWAYS over-adjust and inflate the line creating massive value for the team missing a star player.
2) Back-up players are looking to prove themselves as having an important role to the team and ALWAYS give 110% (something that can certainly not be said about several star players in the league).
After the first game however, the value tends to dissipate as the books adjust and the back-up players become fatigued and/or exploited.
Nice idea for a thread SKM.Comment -
We've got records on this, teams are covering injuries this year.
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That is a good trend to follow, but how successful will it be through out the year? Star players being injured can make or break a team, imo.Comment -
Tyreke Evans
Sorry I wasn't around earlier to do my homework. I was wondering why the Kings were such large underdogs against Denver who is on a b2b coming off a big road win yesterday in San Antonio. This one is far from over but I believe this game was a nice fit for this theory.....
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What is the status on Kobe tonight? Interesting situation here with the Lakers NOT being a public play. The line is big enough to get lots of action on Denver (even without Carmelo) because of Kobe's injury.Comment
