Originally posted by TGoat
Do you have any idea how many points you would have if you had continued on with our original deal (post #139)? By the way, I know I didn't mention this, but I was going to have you raise the bet as the points accumulated. This is what I predicted in your older thread:
"Let's say in a month's time you bet 200 games at 60% winners. That would be 120 winning games and 80 losers. (120*.909-80=+29 units) At 10 points per unit you would be up 290 points. That's 145 apiece plus I get my 100 point spot back."
When we started that deal you were 50-25, and now you're 122-62. Without raising the bet in just 10 days it would be +265. My projection of 290 points was for an entire month. Multiply 265 x 4 and you would be at 1050 at the end of the month--and that's without ever raising the bet. With some periodic bet raising along the way it could easily be about 2000 points in a months time split two ways. Now imagine that was real money.
The whole point I was trying to make by setting up that deal was to show you that betting a certain unit size and sticking with it is the best way to accumulate profits.
Chucking it all on your best bet of the day is going to keep you broke forever. Betting your whole roll even if it's only for points won't ever get you anywhere.
And don't even begin to think that if you were betting real money you wouldn't have done this. I've been around gamblers my whole life, and there is no way in hell you could resist the temptation. I can tell. Gamblers do crazy things when they're winning and especially when they're losing. Inexperienced gamblers have to learn the hard way.
I also think going for a free play is the wrong move. You should go for the $50 account value instead. That way you can bet a percentage of your money on each game. If you can wait until you get 1200 points, you would have $100 and that's even better. Now you can bet $5 per game and grind it out. That's what gambling is all about you know--finding an edge and then grinding it out. Nobody every gets rich quickly--you get rich slowly.
I've got 800-900 points just sitting around doing nothing, and I'm still willing to put some of them to work staking you if you ever want to try it again--and you can figure out a way to keep all of your bets straight. I know you'll stick to the plan when it's somebody else's money. But I also understand why you'd rather not do it.
All that being said, you're still doing a great job capping--especially the colleges. Keep up the good work.
"Let's say in a month's time you bet 200 games at 60% winners. That would be 120 winning games and 80 losers. (120*.909-80=+29 units) At 10 points per unit you would be up 290 points. That's 145 apiece plus I get my 100 point spot back."
When we started that deal you were 50-25, and now you're 122-62. Without raising the bet in just 10 days it would be +265. My projection of 290 points was for an entire month. Multiply 265 x 4 and you would be at 1050 at the end of the month--and that's without ever raising the bet. With some periodic bet raising along the way it could easily be about 2000 points in a months time split two ways. Now imagine that was real money.
The whole point I was trying to make by setting up that deal was to show you that betting a certain unit size and sticking with it is the best way to accumulate profits.
Chucking it all on your best bet of the day is going to keep you broke forever. Betting your whole roll even if it's only for points won't ever get you anywhere.
And don't even begin to think that if you were betting real money you wouldn't have done this. I've been around gamblers my whole life, and there is no way in hell you could resist the temptation. I can tell. Gamblers do crazy things when they're winning and especially when they're losing. Inexperienced gamblers have to learn the hard way.
I also think going for a free play is the wrong move. You should go for the $50 account value instead. That way you can bet a percentage of your money on each game. If you can wait until you get 1200 points, you would have $100 and that's even better. Now you can bet $5 per game and grind it out. That's what gambling is all about you know--finding an edge and then grinding it out. Nobody every gets rich quickly--you get rich slowly.
I've got 800-900 points just sitting around doing nothing, and I'm still willing to put some of them to work staking you if you ever want to try it again--and you can figure out a way to keep all of your bets straight. I know you'll stick to the plan when it's somebody else's money. But I also understand why you'd rather not do it.
All that being said, you're still doing a great job capping--especially the colleges. Keep up the good work.
TGoat you just articulated that much better than me..I was saying the same thing to him a few days ago in this thread or another. What's most dissapointing about this whole thing is the young man has talent... What he has you can't teach or learn.. yea you can, but not to his degree or level. His record speaks for itelf in many ways. That you can still be a champ at picking winners and broke still because you are a chump at managaing money,points,etc. And yes TGoat is right. This same kinda behavior would have been repeated with real money.. not just points.Rochesertitans, I told you before the other day you reminded me alot of myself back in the day... I know what your going thru right now.. I never have picked the winning percentage you have now or ever over the period of games you have proved it over.. The biggest problem you have stems from your youth.. You are impatient and in a hurry to make your goals. You can't wait to tommorow, you must have it today. I also think your need to gamble is much stronger than your will to make money... Young man don't think I am being critical of you I am not.. I am speaking on these things because I want to see you win. I know what I am talking about as well because I have been down the same road. I too loved to gamble too much and chase and everything wrong you can do I have done it.. You will not ever change your life for the better until you confront these demons..
You want me to tell you something sick.... alot of you will disagree, but what I am about to say comes frome me deep.
"In a way losing is much more enjoyable than winning, because in order to win one must be very disciplined"
Dude, making money sports wagering is not fun. I have been at this game for over 11 yrs. I spent well over the first half of that time reupping my accounts or paying my bookie. In the latter part of the 11 yrs I have matured and growed up now and can honestly say I do not have to work because of my sports wagering winnings. I still own my own business so I am not a professional in a sense that I am not relying on winning tonite to eat tommorow kinda thing.
Basically, it's like this... You need to learn to love money and what money can do more than you love your "action" and "impatience".
Again, I wrote all this because I want to see you do it.I believe you have a real talent. over 96% of sports wagerers will not approach you level of success in the time period you have. Me personally... Never close to the run you are on, not even now...but i got money!!
Keep it up.
. But come on let's do this right 
citadel to