A great time to hedge for those with Lakers ML

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 09:17 PM

Hedged at

Cavs -2. Now I can watch in peace.

Gl to all

Durrrr · 01-21-10, 09:22 PM

Good choice, cavs will cover.

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by Durrrr

Good choice, cavs will cover.

NBAStats · 01-21-10, 09:27 PM

There is never a great time to hedge. If you like the second half line then hit it, but hedging for the sake of hedging is nonsensical.

moneymaker09 · 01-21-10, 09:28 PM

u shoulda kept lakers

Mac4Lyfe · 01-21-10, 09:32 PM

I have Laker's ML and I think Hedging is a good move when your guaranteed a win. Although I think the Laker's will win this one because Cleveland won't be able to find enough offense losing MoWill. This should be an easy Laker win IMO but why take the chance if you have significant money...

NBAStats · 01-21-10, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I have Laker's ML and I think Hedging is a good move when your guaranteed a win. Although I think the Laker's will win this one because Cleveland won't be able to find enough offense losing MoWill. This should be an easy Laker win IMO but why take the chance if you have significant money...

If you have too much on the game, you need to improve your bankroll management. Giving up what you think of the best of it to avoid a potential loss is a common gambler's fallacy.

Mac4Lyfe · 01-21-10, 09:44 PM

I don't have a lot riding on the Laker's tonight so I'm sticking with my original bets. I already cashed 1st half and keeping the +3 and ML bets for the game. If I had a lot on it, I would probably hedge but that's just me. My mom always told me that a bird in the hand beat's 2 out of 3 in blackjack. I never insure a hand but I will most always take even money.

Mac4Lyfe · 01-21-10, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by NBAStats

If you have too much on the game, you need to improve your bankroll management. Giving up what you think of the best of it to avoid a potential loss is a common gambler's fallacy.

I've bet some pretty big amounts in my lifetime. Very rarely did it have anything to do with poor money management or trying to chase.

The person who bet's the same amount every game isn't really a smart better IMO. I bet more in the games I think I have more of a lean. Small lean = small bet

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by NBAStats

There is never a great time to hedge. If you like the second half line then hit it, but hedging for the sake of hedging is nonsensical.

After reading that sentence I stopped reading.

You are on my "has no idea how to bet in the long term" list.

Congrats to you sir.

NBAStats · 01-21-10, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

After reading that sentence I stopped reading.

You are on my "has no idea how to bet in the long term" list.

Congrats to you sir.

That's ok with me. I like alot of your posts and value the information that you provide. However I just choose to disagree with you on this one.

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 10:02 PM

"but hedging for the sake of hedging is nonsensical."

Here's the hole in your statement..... When you hedge it is always for the sake of hedging.

The cavs are -3 for the game, but the 2nd half line made them -0.5 favs.

So I'm getting value with the Cavs, and pretty much have both sides at a PK. But My Lakers ML is a higher payout.

In the long term I will keep money in my pocket. There will be bets everyday of the year, so save the money for those days.

PIGS Get Slaughtered.

NBAStats · 01-21-10, 10:04 PM

I don't disagree with you on all points. If you think the second half bet has value, then by all means take it. But betting it based on an existing wager that you have is what I disagree with.

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by NBAStats

I don't disagree with you on all points. If you think the second half bet has value, then by all means take it. But betting it based on an existing wager that you have is what I disagree with.

So you would never hedge a bet?

NBAStats · 01-21-10, 10:07 PM

I have on many occasions made a half time wager that in a sense "hedged" my game bet. But I didn't make the second half bet because of my existing wager, but rather because I thought there value in the second half bet.

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by NBAStats

I have on many occasions made a half time wager that in a sense "hedged" my game bet. But I didn't make the second half bet because of my existing wager, but rather because I thought there value in the second half bet.

So isnt that what I just did?

NBAStats · 01-21-10, 10:12 PM

Your thread title implies that the bet is because of an existing wager. If you think that the bet has value then it shouldn't be because you already have Lakers money line. It should simply be because you think the bet has value. I happen to agree with you on that one, I took the Cavs in the second half.

HoulihansTX · 01-21-10, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by NBAStats

Your thread title implies that the bet is because of an existing wager. If you think that the bet has value then it shouldn't be because you already have Lakers money line. It should simply be because you think the bet has value. I happen to agree with you on that one, I took the Cavs in the second half.

Glad we agree.

At my hedge came in handy as the Lakers have just been swept.

Mac4Lyfe · 01-21-10, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I have Lakers ML, and may hedge for half of my money back with the Cavs -2.

A lesson to all those out there...... Pigs Get Slaughtered

Thinking about my hedge, but I have another 15 mins B4 any decision is made.

Smart choice tonight.

Durrrr · 01-21-10, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by Durrrr

Good choice, cavs will cover.

Mac4Lyfe · 01-21-10, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by NBAStats

I have on many occasions made a half time wager that in a sense "hedged" my game bet. But I didn't make the second half bet because of my existing wager, but rather because I thought there value in the second half bet.

I most likely make half time wager's based on existing wagers. There are times when I know I'm on the wrong side and I get off with a quickness. There are other times when I hammer the line because I'm on the right side. Then there are times like tonight when LA was the best bet in the 1st quarter and 1st half but your not real confident of them in the 2nd half. Those are the type of games you should hedge. Kobe scored a bazillion points in the 1st and they were only up 2 pts. That didn't look good and Cav's was really the 2nd half play.