Query on line movement

[michalis]

hey guys, i'm new to this and i'm still trying to figure out how to read the different hints

for instance i checked Bet365 this morning and the o/u on the knicks game was at 197 and now its up to 200

does that indicate bookies feel its going over? what causes that movement? is it things like last minute injury reports or do bookies know the outcome beforehand?

[Pensinger1]

michalis,

nba lines move for several different reasons, one of which you mentioned, being injury updates. however, there are no significant injuries in the knicks game tonight, so we can count that out.

it appears that ~70% of the public are betting on the over in this game. thus, the books are moving the line to even out the action. they want more of the public on the under or they get burned on this game if the total hits the over. the books do not know the outcome beforehand.

[Jaug]

In general, money moves lines. Pinny has an automated system that moves lines when bets come in. Limits on NBA are high so if the total moves to 200 that means alot of money. This money can of course be pure square action but that is highly unlikely.

[suicidekings]

I would start with spreads rather than totals for observing line movement as it's a little easier. The biggest red flags are when the line doesn't move despite imbalanced action.

Last night was a perfect example, with over 75% of bets laid on the Lakers -5, but the line didn't budge all day. The result was a straight up win by the Clippers. In general, line movement doesn't tell you much without information about where the bets are going.

[SamsonSharp]

I have the under at 199.5

[michalis]

michalis,

nba lines move for several different reasons, one of which you mentioned, being injury updates. however, there are no significant injuries in the knicks game tonight, so we can count that out.

it appears that ~70% of the public are betting on the over in this game. thus, the books are moving the line to even out the action. they want more of the public on the under or they get burned on this game if the total hits the over. the books do not know the outcome beforehand.

awesome, thanks man

[michalis]

In general, money moves lines. Pinny has an automated system that moves lines when bets come in. Limits on NBA are high so if the total moves to 200 that means alot of money. This money can of course be pure square action but that is highly unlikely.

thanks jaug

what do you mean they are pure square action?

[michalis]

I would start with spreads rather than totals for observing line movement as it's a little easier. The biggest red flags are when the line doesn't move despite imbalanced action.

Last night was a perfect example, with over 75% of bets laid on the Lakers -5, but the line didn't budge all day. The result was a straight up win by the Clippers. In general, line movement doesn't tell you much without information about where the bets are going.

makes sense to me, thanks SK

[michalis]

I have the under at 199.5

you know what, I have a strong feeling about the under as well, it bothers me though that majority is going for the over