[arpeggiomeister]

My latest experiment is sure to be controversial. Not only does
it involve chasing systems but involves betting both sides of the
same game. I am relying on the recuperative nature of the martingale
system to make money. I call this the Dual Martingale System. I
have back tested this for 10 years in the NFL with zero losses. It
averaged a 30% return. My back tests for the NBA showed one loss in
2007.





I will first explain what the Dual Martingale system is. I will
then tell you how I am picking the teams. The second part is far
more simple then the first.





I will use an example from my back tests to explain what I am
doing. I specialize in the NFL so this example will be from the
Steeler's 2009 season. The Steelers lost their 1rst 3 games and won
their 4^th in 2009. With the Dual Martingale system I bet
on both the Steelers and their opponent in week one.





Week 1: I bet on the Steelers for $11. They lose. I bet $11 on
their opponent and they win. I win $10 and lose 11. I am down $1.





Week 2: I bet on the Steelers for $23.10 (11 x 2.1). They lose.
I bet $11 on their opponent an win. I win $10 and lose $23.10. I am
now down a total of $14.10





Week 3: I bet on the Steelers for $48.51 (23.10 x 2.1). They
lose. I bet $11 on their opponent and win. I win $10 and
lose$48.51. I am now down a total of $51.60.





Week 4: I bet on the Steelers for $101.87. I win approximately
$92.70. I bet $11 on their opponent and lose. $51.60 + $11 =
$62.60. $92.70 - $62.70 = $30.10. I have made a profit of approx
$30.





At this point I start the chase over. I start on tier 2 to
recover the $11 I lost, but I am always chasing the Steelers and flat
betting their opponent. My chase system for the NFL is 5 tiers deep.
As long as they do not lose 5 times in a row ATS I win. I try to
exit in week 15 if all the chases are resolved at that time. I will
only continue into weeks 16 and 17 if a chase is still going.






How did I choose the Steelers for 2009? Simple. I went to the
power rankings list on ESPN for week one of 2009. Steelers were
ranked #1. I did the same thing startign with this year and worked
my way back to 2004. I did not encounter a single system failure.
The only year that did not resolve was the 2007 Patriots. I was 3
tiers deep when the 2007 season ended. I subtracted that total from
my total winnings and was still ahead by 18.9%. 2007 was the only
year that came in under a 30% return. Technically I could have
exited that season with a 30% gain as well because the new chase
started on week on week 15. The opponent won instead of the Patriots
but the results were exactly the same because both bets were for $11.





Here are the results for the past 10 years in the NFL. I have not
done this for the NBA yet. I simply scanned the reults to see if
there was a losing streak large enough to bankrupt the chase system
and the only one that did was the Spurs in 2007.





Dual
Martingale 10 Year NFL Experiment









2004 NE Patriots





Green means win

Red means lose

Blue means push

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

NE

BYE

F

NE

F

NE

S

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

F

F

NP

F

F

BYE

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

NE

NE

NP

Win $1,190 – ROI 29%









2005 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

F

F

NE

NE

F

BYE

F

F

F

NE

NE

NE

F

NE

NP

NP

F

NE

NE

F

F

NE

BYE

NE

NE

NE

F

F

F

NE

F

NP

NP

Win $1,290 – ROI 31.5%









2006 SEA Seahawks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

SEA

SEA

F

SEA

BYE

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

F

F

F

F

SEA

SEA

SEA

NP

F

F

SEA

F

BYE

F

F

F

F

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

F

F

F

NP

Win $1,390 – ROI 33.9%









2007 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

BYE

NE

F

F

F

NE

NE

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

BYE

F

NE

NE

NE

F

F

F

Win $773.90 – ROI 18.9%













2008 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

NE

F

BYE

F

NE

NE

F

F

NE

F

F

NE

NE

NE

NP

NP

F

F

NE

BYE

NE

F

F

NE

NE

F

NE

NE

F

F

F

NP

NP

Win $1,290 – ROI 31.5%









2009 PIT Steelers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

F

F

F

BYE

PIT

F

F

F

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

F

F

F

F

PIT

PIT

PIT

BYE

F

PIT

PIT

PIT

F

F

F

F

F

Win $1,390 – ROI 33.9%









2010 IND Colts

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

IND

IND

F

IND

IND

F

BYE

F

IND

F

F

IND

IND

IND

IND

NP

NP

F

F

IND

F

F

IND

BYE

IND

F

IND

IND

F

F

F

F

NP

NP

Win $1,190 – ROI 29%









2011 GB Packers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GB

F

F

GB

F

GB

F

BYE

F

GB

F

F

GB

GB

F

F

F

F

GB

GB

F

GB

F

GB

BYE

GB

F

GB

GB

F

F

GB

GB

GB

Win $1,390 – ROI 33.9%









2012 GB Packers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GB

GB

F

F

F

F

GB

F

F

BYE

GB

F

F

GB

GB

NP

NP

F

F

GB

GB

GB

GB

F

GB

GB

BYE

F

GB

GB

F

F

NP

NP

Win $1,190 – ROI 29%

2013 SEA Seahawks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

SEA

F

SEA

F

SEA

SEA

SEA

F

F

F

SEA

BYE

F

SEA

SEA

NP

NP

F

SEA

F

SEA

F

F

F

SEA

SEA

SEA

F

BYE

SEA

F

F

NP

NP

Win $1,400 – ROI 31.5%

• Average Return over 10 years – 30.2%
  
• If you compounded $1,000 over the 10 years displayed here
  you would now have $13,933.

The NBA requires a deeper chase system
then the NFL because there are more games. I also may need to switch
teams because different teams take that top spot in the power
rankings throughout the season. There are only 16 games in the NFL
regular season so I can get away with sticking it out with one team.
The NBA has 82. A lot can happen in that time so I reserve the right
to switch teams whenever I deem it necessary. I am using a 7 tier
system for the NBA. As long as I do not encounter a losing streak
larger then 7 games I will make a profit. It does not matter how
much I jump around. The main idea is to stick with the top ranked
team.





If sports betting is random as many
people have suggested then doing this should be financial suicide.
10 years of solid evidence to the contrary is posted above. I posit
this is working because sports are not random. The mechanism that
balances wins and losses against the spread is not random chance but
actually fear and greed. These are bubble phenomenon. The point
spread is an abstract pricing system subject to market forces. The
#1 ranked team in the power rankings is the most emotionally charged
team to bet on or against and thus subject to the most volatility.
Not only do I suggest a losing streak of 7 or greater in the NBA is
rare with top ranked teams, but it is an aberration.





I have looked at the mechanics of how
the point spread keeps things balanced. This is a theory. I will be
bold and say that I do not think I am right, I know I am. Chase
systems are the perfect tool to expose this balancing mechanism we
call the point spread because the results of previous games clearly
affect the spread on the next. In other words the gambler's fallacy
is actually not a fallacy in this case. It is sound logic, and thus
the systems that were built to work on this logic should work. It
simply a matter of finding a chase system that is deep enough to
cover the majority of losing streaks but small enough to still score
a decent return.

[arpeggiomeister]

I apologize for how spread out all of
my posts are. For some reason I can not hit the enter key and create
a new paragraph when posting so I have to write it in Word and copy
and paste.





The OKC Thunder is currently the top
ranked team on ESPN. They play the POR Trail Blazers tomorrow. This
is where my chase will begin. I will have $11 on both teams.

[arpeggiomeister]

In my examples for the NFL I used a 5 tier chase starting with $110. That is a very expensive system requiring a bankroll over $4,000. I have paired that number down to $11 for this experiment because it is 7 tiers deep. The total bankroll required is $1,901. BETdsi has a minimum bet of $1 so this could be done for as little as $190.10.

[ChicagoCover]

This is cool...

[jaykarrels]

I have done this sort of thing, not the exact thing, but it can work great.

[ATHLETE_KIDS]

what in the f\*\*k are you doing betting on the other team every game too? are you stupid boy? Just bet LESS on the steelers and save the juice.

[DarkEraNYSports]

@meister stupid hypothetical, but what if OKC goes undefeated ats for an extended period of time. I guess you only lose $1 every game, but jw

[arpeggiomeister]

Not a stupid question my friend. If OKC goes undefeated for an extended period of time that is the most ideal situation. When the opposing team loses I do not chase them with the opposing team, I chase them with the #1 ranked team. Each time the opposing team loses it signals a new chase. When I originally designed this I made it to be played in to separate accounts. If you look at the example I gave with the Steelers you will see two rows. I call these Book A and Book B. When the chase resolves in Book A I start betting on the Steelers in Book B. This required twice as much money because you needed the full amount to support a 5 tier system in both Book A and Book B. By placing both bets in the same book you only need an additional unit instead of double your 5 tier system. If you look at the table for the 2007 Patriots you can see this happen. The Patriots beat the spread for 8 weeks in a row. They finally lost to the Colts in week 9. You can see the checker board pattern that this creates. I just noticed a typo for week 9. The box with the F (stands for fade) should be colored green to show a win. Both NE and F are colored red. Oops. Anyways, to answer your question what happens is that each chase after the start will only go to tier #2. That is the best scenario you could possibly have.

[arpeggiomeister]

To Athlete Kids







Normally I would not respond to such a derogatory comment.
Despite the insulting nature of your question it is a legitimate
question that I am sure many people will have so I will answer it.





The answer is because you will win more moey. You do not know for
sure when the team is going to win or lose. You just know that they
are a dominant team. By betting on their opponent you are guaranteed
to win every week.





If I simply chase the Steelers without betting the other side I
win $10 by week 4. If I bet one unit on the opponent for each of
these weeks I win $30 the first three weeks and then lose $11 in week
4. I then chase this $11 loss with the Steelers. As long as there
are no pushes and the chases all resolve I am guaranteed to win 1
unit per week until I exit. The last week that I bet I lose $11 and
subtract that amount from all the 1 unit gains I racked up.





In a straight 5 tier chase on the Steelers for 2009 I would have
won 5 units. By applying the Dual Martingale system I manage to win
13.9 units for the additional cost of just one unit.

[ATHLETE_KIDS]

you realize thats the dumbest thing anyones ever said boy

[ATHLETE_KIDS]

cheers

[DarkEraNYSports]

@meister don't even bother w/ athlete.

thx and idk why but this is super interesting and for lack of a better term mind blowing. i plan to pursue possibly w/ okc or mia (they will come into form for playoff push) after the all-star break.

The biggest snag i could see is a major roster change (injury/trade) has a much more profound effect in basketball than in football generally speaking. Obviously losing a QB would be major.

Suppose the thunder lose KD and you're down a decent amount of money, is it worth abandoning the chase or trying to chase w/ a different team? also one reason i probably won't play the heat is b/c they rest d. wade too often and look like a completely different team without him.

Thanks for the thread and BOL

[pazim]

Just bet less on the steelers like athlete said. In week 2, If you skip week 1, bet $11 on steelers and you would only be losing $11 instead of $14.10.

How are making over $700 each year by just making $11 bets?

[arpeggiomeister]

Pazim, The NFL Chase was starting with $110 and is a 5 tier system with a bankroll of over $4,000. The NBA has more games and thus needs a larger chase system to accommodate it. I increased to 7 tiers and reduced the $110 to $11. This requires a bankroll of $1,901. I explained all of this in the earlier posts but there is a lot of information so I can see how it would be easy to miss that. For each win in the NFL it is a gain of $100 whereas the NBA system I am proposing here is only gaining $10. As far as betting less, you have missed the entire point of the chase system. One side is going to win and the other is going to lose. I bank the profit on the $10 gain and trust the chase system to recoup the $11 loss. As long as I do not encounter a losing streak large enough to bust the chase system I will win one unit for every week I bet (with the exception of a push). I attempt to exit in week 15 on the NFL so I do not get caught in a chase that is unresolved. If I am in an unresolved chase by week 15 I will go into week 16 and 17 to try and tie up the loose end. In the 10 year study on the NFL I posted only one year had an unresolved chase; the 2007 NE Patriots. There were 3 losses in a row to end the season. I add up the cost of those three losses 1) $110 + 2) $231 + 3) $485.51 = $826.10 You won a total of $1,600. $1,600 - $826.10 = $773.90. Had you not bet both sides and simply done a 5 tier chase on the Patriots you would have 11 wins capped with a 3 game losing streak at the end of the season. The difference is $500. It only costs an $110 to get that extra $500. You are stuck on the 2 week results instead of seeing the bigger picture. The chase system will recuperate those losses. The only thing that can stop it is a losing streak large enough to wipe out your bankroll. This did not happen in the last 10 years in the NFL. For a 7 tier chase in the NBA it only happened once in the past 10 years. The 2007 San Antonio Spurs had an 8 game losing streak. 19 successful years vs one losing season is pretty strong evidence.

[arpeggiomeister]

@meister don't even bother w/ athlete.

thx and idk why but this is super interesting and for lack of a better term mind blowing. i plan to pursue possibly w/ okc or mia (they will come into form for playoff push) after the all-star break.

The biggest snag i could see is a major roster change (injury/trade) has a much more profound effect in basketball than in football generally speaking. Obviously losing a QB would be major.

Suppose the thunder lose KD and you're down a decent amount of money, is it worth abandoning the chase or trying to chase w/ a different team? also one reason i probably won't play the heat is b/c they rest d. wade too often and look like a completely different team without him.

Thanks for the thread and BOL

I agree. This is why you need to stay on top of the power rankings. You wouldn't continue betting on the Packers after Aaron Rodgers went down. Even star receivers or running backs can effect the outcome, like the Vikings losing AP or the Lions losing Megatron. If you are down deep when such an injury occurs you are in a sticky situation. You could cut your losses or take a risk on another team. You might even want to consider a teaser or money line parlay with heavy favorites to try and dig yourself out of the hole. I had quite a bit of success with 15 point teasers this last NFL season. Unfortunately I tried to many different ideas and blew up my account, but the 15 point teaser strategy was one worth hanging on to and trying again in the future.

[arpeggiomeister]

I said this would be controversial when I posted it and given some
of the responses it has not disappointed. I will not bother to
respond to derogatory and insulting people. I will instead let the
results speak for themselves.





Up to this point in the year OKC's largest losing streak ATS was 3
games. This means the system has worked flawlessly up to this point.
I will attempt to exit the season when there are 5 games left. My
exit before the end of the season is to allow enough time to wrap up
any loose ends. This system is very deep at 7 tiers. A 6 game
losing streak would result in a loss at the end of the season. Not a
catastrophic loss because it would be offset by plenty of winnings,
but a loss nonetheless. I will only continue into those last 5 games
if a chase is unresolved.





For the record, this is a paper trade. I am not risking real
money on it at this point, I am testing it in real time to see if it
is as successful as my back tests. If I succeed I will do it for
real in the NFL. I am also looking to see if I can make this work on
over/unders in MLB. That would require a very deep chase system and
would be a little trickier then simply looking up the top ranked
teams.





The first official play for the system is






A – OKC +1 $11 (to win $10)

B – POR -1 $11





This will be the only time that both bets are the same amount.
(unless this game results in a push) There will be a winning bet and
a losing bet. The next bet will be $23.10 on OKC and $11 on their
opponent. Every loss will be chased by betting on the top ranked
team in the ESPN power rankings. I will not abandon OKC if they fall
to #2 or #3, but if they drop below #5 I will finish out the chase
and replace them with the new #1 ranked team.

[BadLuckSanta]

This is going to be tough with nba but definitely interesting

So if okc wins today, you won't be betting on the lakers next game? Only okc? Do I have that right?

[arpeggiomeister]

This is going to be tough with nba but definitely interesting

So if okc wins today, you won't be betting on the lakers next game? Only okc? Do I have that right?

I will be betting on the Lakers. I will bet the Lakers for $11 and $23.10 on OKC. If they Beat the Lakers then I will bet $23.10 on them against the Heat on Thursday. If they lose to the Lakers I will bet $48.51 on them against the Heat on Thursday. I always bet 1 unit on the opponent. I always give chase with the top rated team. I am trusting they will not lose 7 in a row ATS. As long as that does not happen I gain 1 unit for every game I bet.

[DarkEraNYSports]

This is going to be tough with nba but definitely interesting

So if okc wins today, you won't be betting on the lakers next game? Only okc? Do I have that right?

@santa So here's the way i've interpreted it

regardless of result tn, there will be $23.10 ($11*2.1) on okc next game and $11 on opponent (Lakers?)

after the game vs por tn we will be down $1 regardless of the result.

if okc wins vs lakers we profit $9 (W - $23.10 to win $21, L - $11 to win $10 | $21 - $11 - $1 = $9)
- the following game we will bet $23.10 on okc and $11 on opponent

if okc loses vs lakers were down $14.10 (W - $11 to win $10, L - $23.10 to win $21 | $10 - $23.10 - $1 = -$14.10)
- the following game we will bet $48.51 ($23.10*2.1) on OKC and $11 on opponent.

After OKC victories revert to tier 2, where we bet $23.10 on okc and $11 on opponent to recover $11 lost on tier 1.

@meister if i'm wrong correct me, but i think i have a grasp of it

[BadLuckSanta]

Why not just skip this game instead of being down and start your chase with 23.10 and 11 bets?

[ATHLETE_KIDS]

YOU MUST LOSE EXTRA JUICE EACH WEEK OR THE CHASE WILL NOT WORK.



wow bro you can't be serious

[H2oDog]

That works fine if you are playing for nickels and dimes however if you are playing for big money you WILL lose your ass.

[arpeggiomeister]

OKC covers. POR loses. This starts our first chase. Here are tonight's bets. OKC +2 for $23.1, LA Lakers for $11.

[arpeggiomeister]

Why not just skip this game instead of being down and start your chase with 23.10 and 11 bets?

That is a good point. This reduces the chase system to effectively 6 tiers because we are always starting on tier 2. My back tests show this is not a problem most of the time, but it may be better to eat that $1 and have an extra tier up your sleeve in the end of the chase. That is why I do these experiments. In 2007 the Spurs were at the top of the power rankings and had an 8 game losing streak. If we expand the chase system to 9 tiers to compensate then the return for that year would be less then 10%. This was the only year in the past 10 that busted the 7 tier system. If you exit with 77 games then you make $770. Subtract $11 for the last losing bet on the chase system and you get $759. The 7 tier system requires $1,901. That would be a 39.9% ROI. If I chose to eat the $1 loss at the end of each chase then this will reduce your winnings by however many chases it took to make it to the end of the season. We will estimate 30 just to give ourselves a number to work with. This would reduce our number by $29. We ate $11 on the very last chase which is already figured in. $730 is still a 38.4% ROI. So the real question would be is it worth losing approximately $29 to have one extra tier up your sleeve? I think it is. I believe that is how I will play this. Rather then starting with $23.10 I will opt to keep the extra tier at the cost of $1 per chase. Excellent question. Thanks brother.

[ATHLETE_KIDS]

just pretend u made the bet and keep doing whatever drugs youre doing. trying to help you brotha

[ATHLETE_KIDS]

hint: back test your results without the stupid $11 bet on the other side

[arpeggiomeister]

That works fine if you are playing for nickels and dimes however if you are playing for big money you WILL lose your ass.

The gains are based on a percentage return. It does not matter whether you are playing for $200 or $20,000. 38% is 38%. Can this system lose? Of course it can. If you consider what you lost "losing your ass" then you should not have been risking that much money in the first place. The system will either win or lose. The success of the system is based on the size of the losing streaks and nothing else. If you are afraid of losing your ass then don't risk it in the first place.

[arpeggiomeister]

hint: back test your results without the stupid $11 bet on the other side

I have already done that. In my NFL examples the numbers are based on a starting unit of $110 instead of $11 because the system is only 5 tiers deep. The 2009 PIT Steelers would have won 5 units without the "stupid $11 bet" which is actually $110 in this case. With the "stupid $110 bet" it increases the return to 13.9 units. The math doesn't lie. As far as "pretending" goes, this is part of a logical process that any intelligent investor goes through. The first step is discovery. You do this with back testing. The next step is to paper trade it live. There is a big difference between back testing and actually betting. If there are any unforeseen variables you get to discover them without losing money. If the paper trades are successful the final step is execution. I have presented an idea. If it is a bad idea then the results will show that over time. They do not need any help from you. You, on the other hand, have presented nothing but insults. I have $100 that says this thing works. If you are right then this is easy money. Put up or shut up.

[rustie]

What am I missing here ? Where are you getting Okl cty +2

[axemagic]

@arpmeister...I like BadLuckSanta's idea of starting at tier 2 with the 23.10 bets, but I see your point eating the $1 and keeping that additional tier up your sleeve. It's only a buck, I probably lose more than that out of my wallet daily from my kids, lol. An additional safety net of sorts. Cool.

@Athlete...forums are for discussion by people that have something to contribute. Keep an open mind - this very well could work. Forgive me for stooping to your level, but why do you have to be a douchenozzle? I dare you to take Arp's bet and eat your words.

[arpeggiomeister]

What am I missing here ? Where are you getting Okl cty +2

The number was not up on BETdsi when I went to work so I grabbed it off from the live odds. If made a mistake and got the wrong line please feel free to post the line. I usually pull all of my back test material off from goldsheet so I will double check the number with them after the game is completed and make any correction if necessary. Thanks brother.

[arpeggiomeister]

What am I missing here ? Where are you getting Okl cty +2

I see what happened. I thought the game was tonight but it is tomorrow night. That line was Utah vs LAL. My bad. I will post the line tomorrow. Thanks again.

[arpeggiomeister]

@arpmeister...I like BadLuckSanta's idea of starting at tier 2 with the 23.10 bets, but I see your point eating the $1 and keeping that additional tier up your sleeve. It's only a buck, I probably lose more than that out of my wallet daily from my kids, lol. An additional safety net of sorts. Cool.

@Athlete...forums are for discussion by people that have something to contribute. Keep an open mind - this very well could work. Forgive me for stooping to your level, but why do you have to be a douchenozzle? I dare you to take Arp's bet and eat your words.

Thanks brother. I hear you. BadLuckSanta had a very good point. We do not want to lose money unless it is necessary. The thing about Martingale Systems and all other chasing variations is that they are a balancing act between profits and longevity. Every extra tier comes with a price. 6 tiers looks to be enough on 9 out of the 10 years I back tested. There were several 5 game losing streaks but only one streak that was greater which was in 2007 on the Spurs. 6 tiers would cover any 5 game losing streak but I would like to have that extra cushion just in case. I look at this like buying extra points or placing teaser bets. It is a little added insurance and when you find yourself walking a really fine line that extra insurance could be the difference between winning and losing. I can't tell you how many times I have placed 10 point teasers in the NFL and those extra 10 points ended up saving my butt. Instead of extra points this allows you to survive for one more game.

[figue]

[arpeggiomeister]

Okay, let's try this again. This is the 2nd tier in my first chase. We lost $11 on Portland and we will attempt to recover that in this chase. OKC is -11 vs LAL. We are betting $23.10 on OKC and $11 on LAL.