Pendulum Cycle Theory Dual Martingale NBA Experiment

arpeggiomeister · 03-04-14, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by cchobo

Well this has been entertaining ...

As I understand it, on level 7 you are betting $943.43 to win $10. Best of luck on that 7th game, should it come.

I don't understand your math though. For the illustrated betting seasons, it appear there were 62 wins and 77 losses for the opposite game. You would have had better results over those samples just going with the martingale.

For the 2007 Patriots, there were 10 martingale wins and 1 loss [the series wasn't closed out]. Just using your martingale, you should have netted 9 units [if I understand the progression]. Using $100 units, it would be $900 [I understand that is what you were using, but I might be confused]. The opposite series was 4-10 that year, or -6 units. I would think you netted 3 units combined, yet the caption is

Win $1,059 – ROI 25.9%

Equal weighted bets would have gone 10 - 4

Equal weights on the power team over 10 years went 77 - 62 or 55.4% ....

Anyway I liked the concept of yours. I have used opposite systems on craps, but always cancelled opposing bets. But that was just so I didn't look any more stupid than I already did

Let's look at
that example. I will show you how I came up with that number. I am
not above making mistakes. If there is a flaw in my math please
feel free to point it out. The whole point of doing exercises like
this is to discover any errors in judgment before I do it using real
money.

2007 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

BYE

NE

F

NE

NP

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

BYE

F

NE

F

NP

Win $1,059 –
ROI 25.9%

Each green
square that you see represents a gain of $100. The only way you can
lose is if a losing streak outlasts the size of the chase system,
which is 5 tiers deep in this case.

You have 14
green squares. 14 x $100 = $1,400.

The last chase
does not resolve and goes 2 tiers deep. Tier 1 is $110 and tier 2 is
$231. $110 + $231 = $341. The Martingale system recuperates losses
so every red square you see before this was recovered by the green
squares along with a $100 gain.

$1,400 - $341 =
$1,059.

Had you just
chased the Pats you would have won 10 units and lost in week 15 making
a $890 gain. By betting with this system you increase your returns
by $169.

If you look at
the Steelers example the difference is substantially larger because
they lost ATS much more then the Pats in this example.

The second
benefit of betting the opponent is that if you do lose 5 tiers the
wins offset the loss. It is still a devastating loss, but not total.

Hopefully that
clears up any confusion. If I have made an error then please let me
know. I believe my math is correct but I am far from infallible.

arpeggiomeister · 03-04-14, 01:09 PM

We start our 3rd chase tonight. Miami is -1 vs HOU. $231 on Miami and $110 on Houston.

arpeggiomeister · 03-04-14, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by cchobo

Well this has been entertaining ...

As I understand it, on level 7 you are betting $943.43 to win $10. Best of luck on that 7th game, should it come.

I don't understand your math though. For the illustrated betting seasons, it appear there were 62 wins and 77 losses for the opposite game. You would have had better results over those samples just going with the martingale.

For the 2007 Patriots, there were 10 martingale wins and 1 loss [the series wasn't closed out]. Just using your martingale, you should have netted 9 units [if I understand the progression]. Using $100 units, it would be $900 [I understand that is what you were using, but I might be confused]. The opposite series was 4-10 that year, or -6 units. I would think you netted 3 units combined, yet the caption is

Win $1,059 – ROI 25.9%

Equal weighted bets would have gone 10 - 4

Equal weights on the power team over 10 years went 77 - 62 or 55.4% ....

Anyway I liked the concept of yours. I have used opposite systems on craps, but always cancelled opposing bets. But that was just so I didn't look any more stupid than I already did

I Believe you are not accounting for the Martingale System recuperating the losses incurred by the opponents. Every time I covered with the Patriots and the opponent lost I would chase that loss using the Patriots. Percentage wins vs losses are irrelevant when discussing chase systems. It is the size of the losing streaks that determines the success or failure of the system. The reason chase systems fail against random games is because losing streaks of 5, 10, 15 or greater or larger are common. The reason is that the last outcome, say roll of the dice, or spin of the roulette wheel, have absolutely no bearing on what the outcome will be of the next game. The entire basis of this theory is that this logic does not apply to sports. Each outcome has a drastic affect on the outcome of the next game. It affects the bettors who will get scared to bet if they get burned. It affects the players because they get pissed when they lose. This makes them try harder the next time around. That creates the perfect storm with the spread and is why I believe that the gambler's fallacy is sound logic when applied to sports. The Martingale System is based on the gambler's fallacy. I believe that it should work. It is a matter of having a system deep enough to ride out these waves of psychology from the betting public and the players.

cchobo · 03-05-14, 05:06 AM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

I Believe you are not accounting for the Martingale System recuperating the losses incurred by the opponents.

That is true.

A super martingale would do something similar, where each level is playing for progressively more than the original one unit.

If you shopped for lines you might get a middle and might quiet critics of betting both sides instead of letting the bets cancel.

Good luck

arpeggiomeister · 03-05-14, 01:52 PM

The Heat loses. We will be on the 3rd tier against SAS tomorrow.

arpeggiomeister · 03-05-14, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by cchobo

That is true.

A super martingale would do something similar, where each level is playing for progressively more than the original one unit.

If you shopped for lines you might get a middle and might quiet critics of betting both sides instead of letting the bets cancel.

Good luck

While that would silence them you lose the advantage of winning when they lose. A grand martingale, or super martingale as you referred to it would have cut into the profits much deeper on the Patriots season in 2007 if I am not mistaken. I would have to double check the numbers to be sure, but by gaining $200 in the last two games I offset losses that I incurred on the Patriots. That is the primary advantage of betting both sides. I get where you are coming from. I will look closer at it when I have time but I have to fly right now. Thanks brother.

arpeggiomeister · 03-06-14, 11:02 AM

Miami is +2.5 vs SAS tonight. $48.51 on Miami and $11 on the Spurs.

bihon · 03-06-14, 03:16 PM

I am not sure why do you so stubbornly refuse good advices to cancel the opposing bet, but if you really insist on your way, the best way for you to do it properly would be to IMAGINE you made both bets while betting one side and continue math with imaginary results, but always betting one side.

E.g. using your original example:

First week: 11-11=0, skipping.

Week 2: You are to bet on the Steelers for $23.10 and on their opponent $11.
You bet 12.10 on Steelers, pretending you made both bets.
You lose $12.10

Week three: You are to bet $48.51 on the Steelers and $11 on their opponent.
You bet $37.51 on Steelers.
You lose $37.51

Week 4: You are to bet on the Steelers for $101.87 and $11 on their opponent.
You bet $90.87 on Steelers.
You win $81.70

$81.70-$49.60 = $32.10

In this way you not only earn more money, but you also have smaller bets and less risk.

Note that the math above is not really how it should be played, but it is used to prove the point.

arpeggiomeister · 03-07-14, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by bihon

I am not sure why do you so stubbornly refuse good advices to cancel the opposing bet, but if you really insist on your way, the best way for you to do it properly would be to IMAGINE you made both bets while betting one side and continue math with imaginary results, but always betting one side.

E.g. using your original example:

First week: 11-11=0, skipping.

Week 2: You are to bet on the Steelers for $23.10 and on their opponent $11.
You bet 12.10 on Steelers, pretending you made both bets.
You lose $12.10

Week three: You are to bet $48.51 on the Steelers and $11 on their opponent.
You bet $37.51 on Steelers.
You lose $37.51

Week 4: You are to bet on the Steelers for $101.87 and $11 on their opponent.
You bet $90.87 on Steelers.
You win $81.70

$81.70-$49.60 = $32.10

In this way you not only earn more money, but you also have smaller bets and less risk.

Note that the math above is not really how it should be played, but it is used to prove the point.

Because if the chase does not resolve the wins you make on the opposing team buffers the losses you made betting on the favorite. Go back and look at the Patriots example again.

bihon · 03-07-14, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

Because if the chase does not resolve the wins you make on the opposing team buffers the losses you made betting on the favorite. Go back and look at the Patriots example again.

I hope you understand that betting $12.10 on the favorite is more favorable than betting $23.10 on the favorite and $11 on the opponent. There is no "win" on the opposing team if you make a counter bet. You lose more because of juice as many pointed out.

Regarding Petriots game I'll come back to it when I find more time. I suppose you reffer to post #71?

arpeggiomeister · 03-07-14, 02:10 PM

Miami loses. Will go into tier 4. Miami $101.87 and Chicago $11 on Sunday.

arpeggiomeister · 03-07-14, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by bihon

I hope you understand that betting $12.10 on the favorite is more favorable than betting $23.10 on the favorite and $11 on the opponent. There is no "win" on the opposing team if you make a counter bet. You lose more because of juice as many pointed out.

Regarding Petriots game I'll come back to it when I find more time. I suppose you reffer to post #71?

I believe you are suffering from the same problem that most people who have tried to argue this with me have. You are not seeing the recuperative powers of the Martingale system. I will give you the benefit of the doubt. Demonstrate your theory using the entire season. I will compare your profits with mine. I am a reasonable man, but nobody has sufficiently proven that this method does not work. The only thing I have seen so far is proof that people are missing key components. $23.10 on one bet and $11 on the other do not concern me because the Martingale system will recup the loss. The juice is not a consideration if it is recuperated. Don't trip over pennies on your way to dollars. That is where people have been getting lost. Show me your full results for the Patriots 2007 season. That will demonstrate if there is a flaw or not.

bihon · 03-07-14, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

You are not seeing the recuperative powers of the Martingale system.

See below about it.

The only thing I have seen so far is proof that people are missing key components. $23.10 on one bet and $11 on the other do not concern me because the Martingale system will recup the loss. The juice is not a consideration if it is recuperated.

Nothing is consideration if it is recuperated. You can add your speeding tickets and utility bills to your losses and Patriots will cover them too unless your last tier being hit.
There is simply no point in making a 100% sure losing bet.

Show me your full results for the Patriots 2007 season. That will demonstrate if there is a flaw or not.

OK, I'll do it later.

bihon · 03-07-14, 04:31 PM

SO, this is your "A" way for season 2007. Make correction if necessary.

Week Patriots Opponent W/L
1 230 110 99,3
2 230 110 99,3
3 230 110 99,3
4 230 110 99,3
5 230 110 99,3
6 230 110 99,3
7 230 110 99,3
8 230 110 99,3
9 230 110 -129,9
10 485,1 110 331,441
11 230 110 99,3
12 230 110 -129,9
13 485,1 110 -385
14 1018,7 110 817,017
15 230 110 99,3
16 230 110 -129,9
-----------------------------------------
Total profit: +$1366,75
Total bet: $6738.90
Return: 20.3%

"B" way:

Week	Patriots	W/L
1	120	109,2
2	120	109,2
3	120	109,2
4	120	109,2
5	120	109,2
6	120	109,2
7	120	109,2
8	120	109,2
9	120	-120
10	375,1	341,341
11	120	109,2
12	120	-120
13	375,1	-375,1
14	908,7	826,917
15	120	109,2
16	120	-120

-----------------------------------------------
Total: +$1525.1
Total bet: $4744
Return: 32%

Which way do you choose?

mcdonae101 · 03-07-14, 10:30 PM

I sent u a pm arpp

arpeggiomeister · 03-08-14, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by bihon

See below about it.

Nothing is consideration if it is recuperated. You can add your speeding tickets and utility bills to your losses and Patriots will cover them too unless your last tier being hit.
There is simply no point in making a 100% sure losing bet.

OK, I'll do it later.

First off, do not get on here and start disrespecting me. It does
not matter whether you are right or wrong, it makes you look like an
asshole. If you recuperate your money in a betting system then the
system has done what it is designed to do. Your comments about
parking tickets are derogatory and essentially just make you look
like a dick.

Now that I have that out of the way, I have been looking over your
math and it appears to be working. I have to look deeper into it. I
am a little baffled as to how you are managing to stay ahead of the
juice by subtracting $11 from each of my initial Martingale which was
designed to compensate for the juice. Whether I understand it or not
does not take away from the fact that it seems to be working. I am
going to test this idea with a 7 tier deep system and see if the
juice starts to erode the profits or if it still holds up. I am
afraid I do not have the time to do that right now.

I calculated the Steelers season using the math you suggested in
your initial message. It boosted the ROI to almost 45%. If you
start by betting on week one with $12.10 it increases the ROI by $11,
thus putting it over the 50% mark. That is a very strong return. I
would consider adding an extra tier. It would reduce the ROI but
give an added measure of safety. You would still be looking at over
a 20% return.

2009 PIT Steelers

PIT

F

BYE

PIT

F

PIT

F

PIT

BYE

F

PIT

F

12.1

37.51

90.87

12.1

37.51

90.87

12.1

37.51

90.87

12.1

37.51

90.87

202.93

33

11

33

44

$154

12.10 + 37.51 + 90.87 + 202.93 = $343.41 (required bankroll)

44.8% ROI

Thank you for your input. Please be a little more respectful in
the future.

arpeggiomeister · 03-08-14, 06:24 PM

Tested 7 tiers and it is holding up.

pip2 · 03-08-14, 06:53 PM

This site is pretty much 98% full of dicks and cockroaches and other creatures of the sort that scurry out when you overturn a log or a rock. Compared to those creatures, I think bihon is relatively gentlemanly and urbane. That said, he does seem to be kind of fine-tuning a little bit early, kind of like scolding the Wright brothers for not building planes with air-filled rubber tires, before the Wright brothers have even proven they can keep a plane in the air for an extended period of time...

bihon · 03-08-14, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

First off, do not get on here and start disrespecting me. It does
not matter whether you are right or wrong, it makes you look like an
asshole. If you recuperate your money in a betting system then the
system has done what it is designed to do. Your comments about
parking tickets are derogatory and essentially just make you look
like a dick.

Huh??
I am sorry you interpreted that in such a way.
I am also sorry I waisted my time in your thread emphasizing some ABC's of gambling in order to make you start thinking in a logical way for your own sake and without ridiculing you as some others did.
You are obviously not capable of grasping the matter, absolutely no disrespectful intentions here.

Good luck with your Martingale.

keel44 · 03-09-14, 01:11 AM

So where are we at now? How about a refresher with updated rules? I am interested to see what it all looks like.... each bet and everything.

arpeggiomeister · 03-09-14, 02:28 AM

What bihon has done is create a “Grand Martingale” adjusted
for the juice. Cchobo was the first to suggest it and I responded in
message #76. I said I would have to look closer at the numbers to
see if it would hold up. I have been on the run all week and have
not had the time to sit down with it.

The mistake I made was thinking that the Grand Martingale would
not remain profitable after the 2 losses at the end of the 2007 Patriots season , but it does. Because it does
hold up it will make more profit by not having to pay the juice on
the other bet and then chase it down. We are essentially dealing
with the same idea. We are attempting to make one unit with each bet
placed. By tacking the extra money onto the favorite and just
betting one side it streamlines the amount of money being wagered.
You pay only the juice on the favorite and not on both teams.

The way bihon explained this was a bit confusing, imagining that
you are skipping a bet and just placing it on the favorite, etc.
Plus he figured things out in $11 units instead of $10. He
essentially reverse engineered a Grand Martingale system from the
numbers I gave. It was tough to follow because I was in a hurry to
get out the door, but once I had time to sit and go over the numbers
I could see what he was doing.

The way you would chase this is to start with your initial bet.
We will play for $10 units. The first bet would be $11 to win $10.
If this bet loses you multiply $11 x 2.1 and then add another $11.
You do this each time you lose. We will call the losing bet L. The
equation would look like this:

(L x 2.1) + 11 = Next Bet

	Bet	Total Spent
1	$11.00	$11.00
2	$34.10	$45.10
3	$82.61	$127.71
4	$184.48	$312.19
5	$398.41	$710.60
6	$847.66	$1,558.61

I think it would be more confusing to switch mid-stream then it
would be to just switch once the chase resolves. This is because we
are on the 4^th tier, but it would only be the 3^rd
tier had we not bet on the opposing team. We will let this chase
resolve and switch to the Grand Martingale afterwards.

arpeggiomeister · 03-09-14, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by keel44

So where are we at now? How about a refresher with updated rules? I am interested to see what it all looks like.... each bet and everything.

I will work those numbers up for you. I plan to go back over my back tests with it and see what the results are. It should be fairly simple for you are gaining one unit for each bet placed. For the NFL you will need to move your decimal point over to create $100 units instead of $10. Pretty straight forward.

arpeggiomeister · 03-09-14, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by bihon

You are obviously not capable of grasping the matter, absolutely no disrespectful intentions here.

Good luck with your Martingale.

That is pretty funny! First you insult me by saying I am not
capable of grasping the matter. You then go on to say you have no
disrespectful intentions. That is completely laughable!!!

Respect means making your point without acting condescending or
arrogant. I went through your numbers and when they turned out to be
correct I told everyone so. I even thanked you for your input.

My integrity is fully intact. I have said multiple times in this
thread that the entire point of doing a paper trade is to see any
flaws in the system before committing real money. I share this
information so that when people like you see a flaw you can point it
out and corrections can be made. Others get the benefit of seeing an
idea as it develops and gets refined. I benefit from having input
from people like yourself instead of having to think of everything
myself. You benefit because when you contribute something that
improves the idea you gain respect from your peers on this site.

However, the respect you gain by having a positive contribution is
negated when you tell people they are “not capable of grasping the
matter”. Can you see how arrogant and condescending that statement
is? You acted like a dick and I flamed you for it.

I do not hate you. I am not looking for this to be an ongoing
feud. I created this thread with a spirit of exploration. It is
about trying new ideas. You have made a positive contribution and I
am grateful for that. That contribution is marred by your derogatory
comments though, and that is something I will not stand for.

If anyone gets on this thread and insults me or anyone else on
here I will rip you a new ass. There is no damn need of it. This is
not about egos. I do not give a flying turd who is smarter. It
doesn't matter. It is about making money. If you can learn
something from me great! If you can teach me something fantastic!
That is the spirit of this thread.

If you are here to prove your superiority by insulting people and
talking down to them get the hell of my thread. You are not welcome
here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

arpeggiomeister · 03-09-14, 12:17 PM

The Heat are -4.5

arpeggiomeister · 03-09-14, 03:37 PM

Keel wanted an update on the changes that have been made. I will
start by talking about the evolution the system has gone through
since posting it on this thread. There are essentially two main
developments that occurred.

The first is when Bad Luck Santa recommended starting on the
second tier. The original system started by betting $11 on the
favorite and the opponent. This is a guaranteed loss of $1. By
starting on the second tier you start out with a profit if the
favored team wins. This increased the ROI but also effectively
decreased the 7 tier system to a 6 tier system. That makes me a
little uncomfortable because the largest average losing streak for
the #1 ranked team in the NBA over the last 10 years is 5 games, and
they cover on the 6^th. Having one more tier is just a
little added insurance. The price of adding that extra tier is
pretty expensive though. We are talking about betting roughly $2,000
to win $10. That is pretty scary. Anyways, after looking over Bad
Luck Santa's suggestion I took his advice and started each new chase
with $23.10 on the favorite and $11 on the opponent.

The next suggestion was initially made by CCHOBO and
mathematically proven by BIHON. CCHOBO recommended using a “Super
Martingale” system. I am assuming what he is calling a Super
Martingale and what I know as a Grand Martingale are the exact same
thing. Instead of doubling your bet each time you double it and add
one additional unit. This effectively allows you to win one unit for
every bet you place as long as the chase resolves without busting.
Each time you chase a loss the juice compounds with each consecutive
tier. By switching to the Grand Martingale and betting strictly on
the favorite you eliminate half of this compounding juice problem.
While both methods win 1 unit each time the Grand Martingale
streamlines the amount of money you are paying. This increases your
profit margin.

I have not yet decided whether I want to keep this a 6 tier system
or add a 7^th tier for extra insurance. I will figure in
the 7^th tier so the info is there. If the system can pull
in 20% consistently I am happy.

Tier	Bet Size	Money Spent
1	$11.00	$11.00
2	$34.10	$45.10
3	$82.61	$127.71
4	$184.48	$312.19
5	$398.41	$710.60
6	$847.66	$1,558.26
7	$1,791.86	$3,350.12

We are looking to exit after 75 games in the NBA. This gives us
enough time to try and close any unresolved chases. If we win on the
75^th game we gain $750 for the season.

$750 / $3,350.12 = 22.4% That is a respectable gain in my book.
I think it would be better to have a 22% gain and have one more tier
to go then to have a 6 tier system producing a 48% gain and coming
down to the wire on that final tier multiple times. It is a fine
line. The only time that line was crossed in my back tests was with
the 2007 Spurs. In that case the extra tier didn't do you any good
anyways. They lost 8 in a row ATS before rebounding. I do question
if they were still the #1 ranked team at that time? What caused that
streak? Was a key player injured? I would have to do some digging
to know for sure. I think there is a possibility that this losing
streak could have been avoided but I will not know that for sure
unless I go back and see what was happening during that stretch. For
now I must assume that the system failed until I have evidence to the
contrary. One failure in 10 years is not bad. When you combine that
with zero failures in the NFL 5 tier system in the past 10 years the
evidence is pretty compelling. We do not have thousands of trials to
back it up, but in sports you will never have that luxury if your
system filters out games in any substantial way. We have to act on
small sample sizes and hope that what we are seeing is more the
merely a trend.

The updated system will now be a Grand Martingale system that bets
on the #1 ranked team on the ESPN power rankings. If the team
changes as in the case of the Heat taking the top spot over the
Thunder we try and resolve the chase we are in and then switch to the
new top ranked team.

Our first bet was on OKC vs POR. This would be for $11 to win
$10.

I quoted -5.5 on this game from BETdsi on this game at
10:30am. Goldsheet has this game listed as -6.5. I counted this
game as a win because my numbers were pulled from real time. I
swtiched to Miami after this game.
I included the next game listed on Goldsheet because OKC
covered unquestionably against the Bobcats. This chase would have
been really scary because it brings us all the way to our final tier
before we cover if we lost against Memphis with a -6.5 spread. It
did cover and thereby supports my main theory.

We switched to the Miami Heat after the OKC vs Memphis game.

Miami just lost to Chicago so we are now in our 4^th
tier. We would be up by $70 after the Heat faced the Bobcats. We
have now lost 3 games in a row. We would have lost a total of
$127.71 on those 3 bets. $70 - $127.71 = -$57.71

If we use a 7 tier system we have 4 tiers left to capture a win.

arpeggiomeister · 03-09-14, 04:21 PM

Dual
Martingale 10 Year NFL Experiment

Green means win

Red means lose

Blue means push

I adapted the NBA chase for the NFL. I was lazy and just moved
the decimal point over so these numbers are not exact, but pretty
close. I did a 5 tier system. The average return is a little lower
then I would like but I am not going to complain about 19.7%. You
can make more by reducing this to a 4 tier system but you are living
on the edge. With only 4 tiers you would make it to that final tier
several times in the examples listed here.

To show a fair comparison I am calculating a 4 tier Grand
Martingale. The money gained is exactly the same as it was with the
Dual Martingale but the bankroll is smaller so the ROI is better.

It is a little confusing to look at because I used the Dual
Martingale charts I had made. Simply count the number of games that
were bet. Add $100 for each of these games.

The 2007 Patriots did not resolve by week 15. You must subtract
the last tier from the money you gained to figure out the profit.
This also occurred with the Packers in 2011

Tier	Bet Size	Money Spent
1	$110.00	$110.00
2	$341.00	$451.00
3	$826.10	$1,277.10
4	$1,844.80	$3,121.90
5	$3,984.10	$7,106.00

2004 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

BYE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NP

F

BYE

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

NP

Win $1,300 – ROI 31.8%

Grand Martingale 41.6%

2005 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

F

NE

F

BYE

F

NE

F

NE

NP

F

NE

F

NE

BYE

NE

F

NE

F

NP

Win $1,400 – ROI 34.2%

Grand Martingale 44.8%

2006 SEA Seahawks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

SEA

F

SEA

BYE

SEA

F

SEA

NP

F

SEA

F

BYE

F

SEA

F

NP

Win $1,500 – ROI 36.6%

Grand Martingale 48%

2007 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

BYE

NE

F

NE

NP

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

BYE

F

NE

F

NP

Win $1,059 – ROI 25.9%

Grand Martingale $1,300 - $110 = $1,190 38.1%

2008 NE Patriots

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

F

BYE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NE

NP

F

NE

BYE

NE

F

NE

F

NE

F

NP

Win $1,400 – ROI 34.2%

Grand Martingale 44.8%

2009 PIT Steelers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

PIT

F

BYE

PIT

F

PIT

F

PIT

BYE

F

PIT

F

Win $1,500 – ROI 36.6%

Grand Martingale 48%

2010 IND Colts

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

IND

F

IND

F

BYE

F

IND

F

IND

NP

F

IND

F

IND

BYE

IND

F

IND

F

NP

Win $1,300 – ROI 31.8%

Grand Martingale 41.6%

2011 GB Packers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GB

F

GB

F

GB

F

BYE

F

GB

F

GB

F

NP

F

GB

F

GB

F

GB

BYE

GB

F

GB

F

GB

NP

Win $1,059 – ROI 25.9%

Grand Martingale $1,300 - $110 = $1,190 38.1%

2012 GB Packers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GB

F

GB

F

BYE

GB

F

GB

NP

F

GB

F

GB

BYE

F

GB

F

NP

Win $1,300 – ROI 31.8%

Grand Martingale 41.6%

2013 SEA Seahawks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

SEA

F

SEA

F

SEA

F

SEA

BYE

F

SEA

NP

F

SEA

F

SEA

F

SEA

F

BYE

SEA

F

NP

Win $1,400 – ROI 34.2%

Grand Martingale 44.8%

keel44 · 03-10-14, 12:32 AM

Very good. Nicely done, I would caution you that even though your NFL results go back 10 years, you are only betting with 1 team each year. That is not a lot of games to prove successful for a 5 game chase. Let me ask you what your total profit overall would be if you were to lose a chase in NFL right off the bat next year?

arpeggiomeister · 03-10-14, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by keel44

Very good. Nicely done, I would caution you that even though your NFL results go back 10 years, you are only betting with 1 team each year. That is not a lot of games to prove successful for a 5 game chase. Let me ask you what your total profit overall would be if you were to lose a chase in NFL right off the bat next year?

I hear ya brother. I have responded to this same though before. If you filter out NFL games in any manner the sample sizes become so small that they can not be used as conclusive evidence. It could be nothing more then a trend. It is at this point that you must ask yourself the reasons why you believe this is happening. I believe this is happening because the point spread is a free market with bubble phenomenon. I do not believe this is a fluke, but rather evidence that results ATS are not random. Everyone has been so hung up about losing the juice betting the opposite team that it has overshadowed my primary theory. This is it. These bubbles can be tracked, an average can be set, and a chase system can be designed to beat it. That is what these experiments are all about, testing this theory.

arpeggiomeister · 03-10-14, 12:38 PM

Miami is -6.5 vs the Wizards tonight. This would be tier 5 on the Dual Martingale, Tier 4 using the Grand Martingale.

keel44 · 03-10-14, 11:14 PM

Do you change midstream in the NFL if the power rankings change? I see in your back test, you did not. Will you in the future?

Do you happen to know how many chases you won in the NFL in your back test? Just wondering.

arpeggiomeister · 03-11-14, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by keel44

Do you change midstream in the NFL if the power rankings change? I see in your back test, you did not. Will you in the future?

Do you happen to know how many chases you won in the NFL in your back test? Just wondering.

I did not change midstream in my back tests, but for the strongest results I believe you must switch teams when a new team emerges as #1. You do not switch until your chase has resolved. The only exception would be if something major happens like when Aaron Rodgers went down for the Packers this year. You are begging for a loss if you try to ride out something like that. I have a 15 point teaser strategy that I would use to get me out of that situation. I decided to do this test so I could switch on the fly and see what happens. It is much easier then having to sift through every week of power rankings for a season. If I did enough digging I could probably come up with that info and get a more accurate back test. I figured it would be better just to test it live and see what happens. This is not costing me a dime so if I fall on my face it is no big deal. If it succeeds I can say it warrants taking the next step. I would probably spend the summer digging that info up and creating the most accurate back tests I can. If it still holds up I will throw some money at it when the NFL starts again, at least $500 but probably not more then $2,000.

arpeggiomeister · 03-11-14, 11:07 AM

Miami covers. This was the perfect display of the Pendulum Cycle Theory. Miami crushed the Bobcats. This was the peak of a boom cycle. They were subsequently overvalued going into the Rockets game. They remained overvalued against the Spurs and Bulls. These were away games. When they came back home to face the Wizards the spread had become weak. Every team in the league goes through this cycle. There are several teams out there that if you try to use a chase system the cycle will be too slow and you will lose your shirt. The #1 ranked team theoretically will have the quickest boom and bust cycles of any team in the league. The reason is that the public is throwing their money on this team constantly. When the public gets burned they back off. When they see the team winning again they jump right back in. If my theory is correct then this whole set up was tailor-made for a chase system to kick its ass!!!

arpeggiomeister · 03-11-14, 11:16 AM

The Houston Rockets have taken over the #1 spot. They just lost ATS to Portland. I think they probably have a little more deflation to go through before covering but I do not try to predict when the cycle will break. I just use the chase system to snag the wins. They look like they have a tough road stretch ahead of them but we are going to ride it and see what happens. We are switching to the Grand Martingale System. It is 7 tiers deep. We are on tier 1: HOU+4 for $11 (vs OKC).

keel44 · 03-11-14, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

Miami covers. This was the perfect display of the Pendulum Cycle Theory. Miami crushed the Bobcats. This was the peak of a boom cycle. They were subsequently overvalued going into the Rockets game. They remained overvalued against the Spurs and Bulls. These were away games. When they came back home to face the Wizards the spread had become weak. Every team in the league goes through this cycle. There are several teams out there that if you try to use a chase system the cycle will be too slow and you will lose your shirt. The #1 ranked team theoretically will have the quickest boom and bust cycles of any team in the league. The reason is that the public is throwing their money on this team constantly. When the public gets burned they back off. When they see the team winning again they jump right back in. If my theory is correct then this whole set up was tailor-made for a chase system to kick its ass!!!

I just don't see evidence of what you are describing. It almost sounds like you should strictly fade the power team. I don't think the market changes that quickly. I don't know for sure, but the Heat ended up being -8 at home against the Wizards, if you got a lower line it was from injury concerns. -8 seems about right does it not?

arpeggiomeister · 03-12-14, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by keel44

I just don't see evidence of what you are describing. It almost sounds like you should strictly fade the power team. I don't think the market changes that quickly. I don't know for sure, but the Heat ended up being -8 at home against the Wizards, if you got a lower line it was from injury concerns. -8 seems about right does it not?

What do you think that line would have been had they roasted the Spurs and Bulls? -10, -12, higher? It is most definitely happening. The reason why it is so hard to see is you have two teams in two different cycles facing each other. It took me looking at the 2007 Patriots season to see it for what it was. It most definitely happens, and yes it is that quick. Ask yourself how the spread stays so close to 50/50 all the time even though there are teams that are clearly dominant. Is it random chance or public opinion that is keeping the spread in line. If it is random chance then chase systems are useless. If it is public opinion then chase systems are viable tools to exploit it. Fading the power team will do nothing for you. If the spread is doing it's job it will keep things balanced. It should not matter if you fade them or ride them, you are going to lose as a flat bettor. There are times when the favorite will do much better then 50/50 because they are so dominant and the public has undervalued them. That is exactly what happened in the case of the 2007 Patriots. When the pendulum finally did swing the other way it over-corrected. They couldn't win a game ATS to save their lives in the second half of the season. It is pretty rare, at least at this moment in time, that they do terrible aka 30/70 ATS. The public will back off from them and the numbers will correct themselves. Anything other then a 50/50 split is an anomaly awaiting a correction. That is exactly how the spread was built to function. Yes the bookies have a good pulse on what public opinion will be, but it is the public that causes these anomalies and it is the public that corrects them. If the markets are efficient as many claim then you are better off studying crowd psychology then stats. The crowd is a bunch of lemmings. They will bet a spread up when they should be fading. They fade when they should be betting on the favorite again. This is so similar to the stock market it's not funny. With enough study I believe I will be able to understand these cycles well enough to make accurate predictions. When that happens I can dump the risky chase systems and start doing some real damage.