Reduced Juice, Significance

BernardMadoff · 12-30-09, 10:46 AM

I cant use Pinnacle anymore since Im in the U.S. but odds like that make it seem they want you to lean to a certain side, a greedy person would see that + sign and perhaps jump on it.

jdhender · 12-30-09, 10:57 AM

yeah its interesting - i live in the us as well ... would be interesting to see any trends on how teams with reduced juice perform ats

BAIT ATS: Magic -10.5 (-101), Grizz -2 (-103), Raps -6 (+100), Hawks +6 (-104), Nets +2 (-103), Heat +2 (-102), Wolves +7.5 (-102), 76ers (-102), Blazers -7 (+103)

PLAYS: Bucks +10.5 (-109), Pacers +2 (-107), Bobcats +6 (-110), Cavs -6 (-106), Knicks -2 (-107), Hornets -2 (-108), Jazz -7.5 (-108), Kings -2 (-108), Clippers +7 (-113)

Perhaps this is solely for book balancing purposes .......

namwen1 · 12-30-09, 11:01 AM

i think (not that i really know shit about anything) that reducing the juice is a ploy to even up one side without having to move the line. I often notice in games such as a phoenix v. golden state the o/u will be set at something like 233 and the books will offer -105 instead of the typical -110 to take the over. Seems to me that the odds makers have a strong opinion that this game will exceed the set line and are not willing to move it for fear that a lopsided majority will take the side they think will win. Example, i think the books have a strong opinion about charlotte/toronto game so they don't want to move the line to compensate for huge action on toronto but simply offer you a better deal to take charlotte (they probably feel charlotte can cover a lower number and looking to take the public while trying to appear they are not). the books have to deal with public perception as much as they do the intricate "going-ons" of the athletic matchup...but what do i know...just when i think i got this shit figured out i go 2-6 ATS or something

jdhender · 12-30-09, 11:14 AM

thank you, that is interesting - the truth is, the books can f with everybody no matter how good you are. I am going to keep an eye on this regardless

most notable discrepancies are in the tor/cha , lac/por and cle/atl matchups: perhaps one would be wise to side with LAC, CHA and CLE ATS?

BernardMadoff · 12-30-09, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by namwen1

i think (not that i really know shit about anything) that reducing the juice is a ploy to even up one side without having to move the line. I often notice in games such as a phoenix v. golden state the o/u will be set at something like 233 and the books will offer -105 instead of the typical -110 to take the over. Seems to me that the odds makers have a strong opinion that this game will exceed the set line and are not willing to move it for fear that a lopsided majority will take the side they think will win. Example, i think the books have a strong opinion about charlotte/toronto game so they don't want to move the line to compensate for huge action on toronto but simply offer you a better deal to take charlotte (they probably feel charlotte can cover a lower number and looking to take the public while trying to appear they are not). the books have to deal with public perception as much as they do the intricate "going-ons" of the athletic matchup...but what do i know...just when i think i got this shit figured out i go 2-6 ATS or something

Thats exactly what books do to balance the money, they either change the line or change the juice.

namwen1 · 12-30-09, 11:40 AM

yeah, basically what i was saying is that if they have a strong opinion about a particular game and the public is pounding the opposite side they'd rather offer up a little juice for an opportunity to make the big pay day. normally they like 50/50 action and take the juice as profit but every now and then their greed shows them an opportunity to put the f**k stick to the public