Thanks Tgoat. Your right they are both spot on. Having the benefit of a system increases your chances of being a consistent winner. If you are anything like my father you have looked and back tested many different agles many times over. Thanks again for sharing your system with us. I feel certain it will prove to be a valuable tool going forward.
-
Comment -
Lots to do tomorrow, so I'm posting early. I just made all of these plays at the SBR Sports Book with these lines.
5 Games, 5 Plays
Remember: if the difference between the projected line (second number) and your line (first number) is greater than or equal to 4 (third number), then the game is a play. If it's less than 4, then it's a pass.
hou/tor 203.5, 199, 4.5 (Under)
nj/atl 199, 211, 12.3 (Over)
mem/mia 199, 184, 14.7 (Under)
cle/okl 191, 202, 10.9 (Over)
san/la 187.5, 183, 4.2 (Under)Comment -
yo goat.. i'm working on an NCAA system... you should give it a try when you get your total system where you want it.
i really wanted to try the college game, my thinking being that there will be much softer lines with the amount of gamesinvolved. NBA lines are so sharp that i think if you hit 60% you are an absolute god. what do you think?Comment -
I think 60% is excellent no matter what the sport. Long term, with all the ups and downs, and allowing for the juice, 60% is absolutely outstanding. I don't care who you are. I would simply love to hit 60% over a multi-year period...but I don't personally believe it's attainable...I'm hoping to prove myself wrong.
One reason I've passed on the college games is because of the smaller volume of games and the larger number of teams. There are 82 NBA games and 30 (give or take about 3) college games. And according to WIKI there are 347 schools in 32 division 1 conferences. I'm not saying it couldn't be done but...one thing at a time. Plus, I'm a long way off from long term profitability doing what I'm doing now.
A couple of other things about college ball. The schedules, especially at the beginning of the year can be very soft. In other words, the better teams seem to start out playing weaker teams and that would play havoc with the numbers.
But the biggest drawback of all is finding a line. Here in Vegas they don't put up totals on every college game. Perhaps they do online, but that's not how I roll just yet. It would be very frustrating to find a big edge on a Towson/Idaho St game only to have it not listed.
That being said, I personally believe there are probably a lot of gold nuggets in the college basketball hills.Comment -
yeah it is definately a totally different ball game.. and the part about the numbers being tainted early in the season is right on.
im kind of hoping to get it up and running by the middle of the season so that when the stats become more reliable during conference play i have an idea of where the edges lie. to compensate right now i am incorporating an RPI/strength of schedule adjustment.. hopefully that helps even the playing field.
anyway, GLComment -
hehe there is my cavs over pick
Comment -
lol wind... told yaComment -
hey can you reply to that . i got to deside my 2nd pick. seems like most dont have the same thing for tommorow.
txComment -
I just found a major error in my data. It's not in the algorithm's, but in the record keeping. This could reflect a change in strategy, but I'm not sure yet. I still have to think about it. [It might possibly change the consideration for a play from a 4 point difference to a 6 point or higher difference. But again, not sure yet.]
Something was bugging me, and I couldn't quite figure out what it was...then it dawned on me. I kept staring at the chart in post 16 and it just didn't make any sense. The numbers were ridiculously high. I finally tracked down the error and fixed it. [The error was in my brain.]
Posts 15 and 16 of this thread were incorrect. I've edited them to account for the errors, and I've replaced the bad chart in post 16 with the correct one.
They should be accurate now.Comment -
really like what your doing Tgoat keep up the good work
Comment -
Great call on Toronto's gameComment -
Points Per Minute
When sweating games I like to calculate the "points per minute" needed to fall on the number.
Taking today's games and totals these are the required PPM needed to break even. If the game has completed, the final number will show the actual PPMs.
hou/tor u 203.5 (4.24) (3.94) (WIN)
nj/atl o 199 (4.15)
mem/mia u 199 (4.15)
cle/okl 191 o (3.98)
san/la 187.5 u (3.91)
It's currently 3 minutes before half-time in the nj/atl game. The total points scored so far is 95. 95 divided by 19 minutes played=5PPM. This is well over the pace of 4.15 PPM. You can do this at any point in the game to have a more accurate idea of where you stand.
Multiplying 5PPM x 48 minutes per game we come up with a projected final score of 240, which is 41 points over the betting line.
This game will probably have a 99% chance of covering.
[Perhaps some sort of histogram can be created to form a quick snapshot showing your probability off success (or failure) at any point in the game. You input the score and the spreadsheet calculates your probability of success at that point in time. Doing this, you could know right away if the game will probably win, maybe win, too close to call, or maybe lose, or probably lose. I'll have to think about this, but I like the idea.]
*It's half-time and the score is 50-62, for 112. That's 4.66 PPM for a projected total of 224. It's coming down, as expected, but still 25 points over the pace.Comment -
Tgoat the rooks reading this might not be impressed with the start so far. I know it's early in the game, but if you can maintain the early start of 56% winners you have got something big.
I got one for you that your system will have tommorow.
I already booked GSW/PHI under 209 1/2
I'm about 100% positive your system will give you the same game and pick.Comment -
How neat is that? Now if only it cashes it will be even better. I have said so many times recently that your system plays and my handicapping totals are very similar. I trust the system. I think it will prove to be huge going forward. How much or how far back are you going to feed your system data?? Thanks Again TGoat!Comment -
i like the hs/phi play too. any predictions for the line movement?Comment -
The one thing that scares me is I have been seeing other people that are on to this. Golden St has kept this inflated totals on the road were they don't score the same. There games have been an under machine lately and other's have caught on. I was excited it about it and booked it already @ 209 1/2. In the end nothing is certain, but I love the play and T-goat's system has it also. I think under his criteria and past data it is 60% or better chance of winning. I'll take anything over +EVComment -
How many units should we play?Comment -
For now, all of my plays in this thread are 1 Unit. At the SBR sports book I'm betting 3 Units on the higher percentage plays. [I can afford to loosen up there, because it's only points. See posts 15 & 16 for one possible example of unit play. This is the betting scheme I implement at the SBR Sports Book.]
As far as betting real money, I wouldn't advise betting anything on these picks. The system has proved itself over the last several hundred games on my spreadsheet, but it's unproven over a large enough sample size in real time for all to observe.
That being said, I don't think 2 units is out of line. Two and three unit plays lose too and usually when you least expect it.Comment -
tgoat... your post earlier about seeing where you stand can be found on covers NBA scoreboard throughout the game.. it shows the projected total at every point during the game..Comment -
Do you have today's plays?Comment -
12/14/09
7 Games 5 Plays
ind/orl 208.5, 200, 8.5 (Under)
gs/phil 211, 186, 24.9 (Under)
bos/mem 194.5, 205, 10.3 (Over)
no/dal 198.5, 194, 4.3 (Under)
wash/la 193.5, 184, 9 (Under)Comment -
Looks like you got a nice night brewing T-Goat. As of now I am projecting at worst 3-2, but pssibly 4-1
Nice job once again!!Comment -
great job man, good night for youComment -
Great job my friend! I'm playing exactly as you say. I love it!Comment -
One game I bet I lost. Jeeeez been a rough week. I went with the under with the G state game.Comment -
I bet on the Gst game twice by mistake and lost it... oh well...Comment -
Whats the record on your totals since you started?Comment -
nice work tgoat... 80% tonight, well done!Comment
