Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

Oh yeah... Oklahoma city is busy blowing a 13 point lead going into the 4th to the hapless pacers.

Jesus christ.

[bustabook]

Oh yeah, dont let me forget that indiana/oklahoma city score 16 points in the last ****ing minute to **** the under.

I am done.

[bustabook]

So to summarize...

Philly/detroit score 63 in the 4th, the game goes over by 2.5 points..
Minnesota/chicago score 63 in the 4th, the game goes over by 5 points..
Atlanta/orlando score 44 in the 4th, the game stays under by 2.5 points..
Indiana/charlotte score 16 points in the final minute, the game goes over by 3 points..

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[bustabook]

I just lost more money than i care to divulge.. And i think i am going to take a break from gambling indefinately.

Sorry guys.

[hedgejob]

Tell me about it bro Mavs/Jazz hit 59 points in 4Q crazy shit

[SpreadSniper]

I just lost more money than i care to divulge.. And i think i am going to take a break from gambling indefinately.

Sorry guys.

Sorry to hear that bro....keep your chin up and try not to get too down bout it.... I had the potential to win over 2k last night and woulda had I follwed your DEN pick... for whatever shite thats worth.....

Hope to see ya back soon mang....

[ijenpo]

I'm sorry to hear that man. Take it easy for a while. I always hear money management is the key and it's a marathon, not a sprint. If you ever decide to come back, I'm always interested in new systems/sims...

[MrSleepy]

sorry to hear about your plays today busta. dont worry though, you will be back on track soon.

hope you still run the sims daily to see when its time to jump back on track.

[MrSleepy]

i have...
Atl/Orl UNDER
Min/Chi OVER
Mem/Cha UNDER

no other lines have come out yet. but the #s im getting are close to being right on the money with yours. we are talking MAYBE a hairline or 2 from the over/unders that can swing both ways. once all the #s are out, lets see how the rest of the #s turn out.

im thinking maybe you should try to take baby steps back and see if you can "tweak" where you think might be the issues in your calculations. That is what i keep doing when i run #s on back plays to see if i can find the justification on why i lost. but definitely dont give up. its still a new year buddy. plenty of games still.

[jcygts6]

hey bustabook, sorry to hear about your losses! I totally agree with you that the philly and the minnesota game shouldnt have gone over... it was seriously a bad beat. Keep your head up and hang in there.

[Fairweatherfan]

Man, it was horribly predictable that the Kings make a last second shot to win by 2 and deny Busta of an overtime over and the +1.5 for Denver...what an unlucky day

[incomeraise]

sorry to hear that Busta. Keep your head up!

[doublec]

There's a difference between a bad simulation and bad luck. Last night was the latter. Think long term.

[LaiLai]

his confidence has hit another low point again.
u still believe that it isn't bad luck. but bad simulation instead.

[Nick6570]

Busta I know your probly discouraged but you have done a GREAT job and I dont think you should give up. I think your simulation is something that can be HUGE

[bustabook]

just thought you guys should see this... its absolutely hilarious.

New Orleans 99.1 - Washington 101.6 (Expected Line: Washington -2.5, 200.7)
Side play: Washington (-1) (Margin: 1.5)
Total Play: Over 197.5 (Margin: 3.2)
Miami 94.2 - LA Clippers 94.7 (Expected Line: LA Clippers -0.5, 188.9)
Side play: Miami (+1) (Margin: 0.5)
Total Play: Under 192 (Margin: 3.1)
Boston 104.2 - Toronto 97.8 (Expected Line: Toronto +6.4, 202.0)
Side play: Boston (-1.5) (Margin: 4.9)
Total Play: Over 198.5 (Margin: 3.5)
New Jersey 84.2 - San Antonio 104.6 (Expected Line: San Antonio -20.4, 188.8)
Side play: San Antonio (-14) (Margin: 6.4)
Total Play: Under 196 (Margin: 7.2)
Cleveland 91.5 - Portland 92.2 (Expected Line: Portland -0.7, 183.7)
Side play: Portland (+5) (Margin: 5.7)
Total Play: Under 190 (Margin: 6.3)
Milwaukee 93.3 - LA Lakers 105.6 (Expected Line: LA Lakers -12.3, 198.9)
Side play: LA Lakers (-9.5) (Margin: 2.8)
Total Play: Over 196 (Margin: 2.9)

---------------------

so far today, its 4-0... either going to be 6-0 or 5-1 after the san antonio game.

i dont expect you guys to believe it or care.. i just wanted to post it to feel sorry for myself.

blah.

[Nick6570]

See busta, your system has not failed and neither have you. Stick with it, I think you have something amazing.

[MrSleepy]

not bad. see it was just a bad saturday nite. that's all. cant wait to see what tomorrow's sims look like.

[CHAZ]

just thought you guys should see this... its absolutely hilarious.

New Orleans 99.1 - Washington 101.6 (Expected Line: Washington -2.5, 200.7)
Side play: Washington (-1) (Margin: 1.5)
Total Play: Over 197.5 (Margin: 3.2)
Miami 94.2 - LA Clippers 94.7 (Expected Line: LA Clippers -0.5, 188.9)
Side play: Miami (+1) (Margin: 0.5)
Total Play: Under 192 (Margin: 3.1)
Boston 104.2 - Toronto 97.8 (Expected Line: Toronto +6.4, 202.0)
Side play: Boston (-1.5) (Margin: 4.9)
Total Play: Over 198.5 (Margin: 3.5)
New Jersey 84.2 - San Antonio 104.6 (Expected Line: San Antonio -20.4, 188.8)
Side play: San Antonio (-14) (Margin: 6.4)
Total Play: Under 196 (Margin: 7.2)
Cleveland 91.5 - Portland 92.2 (Expected Line: Portland -0.7, 183.7)
Side play: Portland (+5) (Margin: 5.7)
Total Play: Under 190 (Margin: 6.3)
Milwaukee 93.3 - LA Lakers 105.6 (Expected Line: LA Lakers -12.3, 198.9)
Side play: LA Lakers (-9.5) (Margin: 2.8)
Total Play: Over 196 (Margin: 2.9)

---------------------

so far today, its 4-0... either going to be 6-0 or 5-1 after the san antonio game.

i dont expect you guys to believe it or care.. i just wanted to post it to feel sorry for myself.

blah.

Nice! You need to stop getting down on yourself with a bad night here and there. The system is proven to work over and over again. Nothing is 100% in this business. Shit, 65% is considered good. lol

Keep up the great work busta!

[dogs1972]

yep, thats the way it goes

[CHAZ]

Any plays today?

[MrSleepy]

plays please...

[palmer2712]

okc, and G st

[CHAZ]

Busta please post the plays even if its to late. I'm trying my own "system" out and would like to compare to your results.

[Nick6570]

yall relax and let him post the picks if he wants

[Joe Dogs]

You should keep posting Busta......Even if its just for experimental purposes

[umdterps2002]

Sounds like you had some bad bankroll management if one night ripped you apart that bad. I've been there many times although mine were more about "taking shots" than anything.

Mostly lurk but I've been intrigued by your thread and you may be onto something. Take a break and when your ready get back to the grind and stay well within your BR. Good luck sir.

[bustabook]

ty umd, you are 100% correct about me having terrible bankroll management.

i am usually pretty well disciplined but saturday i went really big on quite a few games, and they ALL went south.

i am still working on the systems, and currently i am working with someone else backtesting all of them very thoroughly.

by the way, tonights plays (version 2) are:

houston/charlotte Under 190.5
detroit/washington Under 199
la lakers/san antonio Over 194

GL.. FWIW i really like the houston/charlotte Under...

i am currently creating a backtesting system which will allow me to tweak the system and re-backtest very quickly.. eventually i would like to create some sort of artificial intelligence backtesting system which tweaks itself and re-tests.

anyway, talk to you guys soon..

[Joe Dogs]

BOL Busta

[CHAZ]

ty umd, you are 100% correct about me having terrible bankroll management.

i am usually pretty well disciplined but saturday i went really big on quite a few games, and they ALL went south.

i am still working on the systems, and currently i am working with someone else backtesting all of them very thoroughly.

by the way, tonights plays (version 2) are:

houston/charlotte Under 190.5
detroit/washington Under 199
la lakers/san antonio Over 194

GL.. FWIW i really like the houston/charlotte Under...

i am currently creating a backtesting system which will allow me to tweak the system and re-backtest very quickly.. eventually i would like to create some sort of artificial intelligence backtesting system which tweaks itself and re-tests.

anyway, talk to you guys soon..

Team plays too or just over/unders?

[bustabook]

blah

[MrSleepy]

good to see you back. hope we can get back on track buddy...

[Welt446+]

Nice to see you back

[Nick6570]

Hope you get back into it busta, you had something really good going

[bustabook]

hi everyone.. been doing some backtesting on version 2, and the results are stunning so far.

i will share more soon..