Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

hey guys, i worked 10 hours today after getting 1 hour of sleep last night.. i cam home, passed out and MISSED THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!!

but the truth of the matter is that the first game i looked at when i woke up was the knicks game and... winner winner!!

that makes the new model 7-2 and rolling..

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good work hopefully this one wont get sloppy like the last one but 75% great night 6-2

i agree and disagree with this statement.. when i think of sloppy i think of careless, and that's not at all true. but i do agree with you that the old sims stopped producing winners like we all had hoped (and expected)

I was locked in on Was too bro - then I hear Arenas was suspended

yeah i really really liked washington, and was quite heartbroken when i heard that arenas was suspended. that was kind of a tough break.

I dont think krazey was trying to be disrespectful. i'm a busta fan, but sloppy results was what the system produced. He put a ton of work into it and i commend him for that, hes a stud, but the last system produced erratic results. This wasnt Busta's fault plus hes still working on it, but the way the system was set up previously there were some where great days and there were some were terrible, it lacked in consistancy....sloppy.

if this is your definition of sloppy, than i agree 100%.. well put dogs.

Hi Busta, just to let you know. Yesterday result was better than any sim on the net. Most of them when 5-5, only Dunkel 7-3. Dunkel are off most of the time.

really? thats pretty damn cool!

Yep, I would say it went 6-1. You can almost cancel the Washington game once Arenas was announced out.

i would love to say it went 6-1, LOL... but the fact is that at gametime, the washington play was still up.. and that is my fault. given that, i would by lying to you guys if i counted that game as a "no play" even though it was a weird circumstance. i pride myself in complete and total honesty about everything going on here, and i would hope that you guys expect no less. even so, palmer.. 7-2 so far is not bad, eh?

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i'm runnning the plays right now, and one plus about this system is that i can have plays for an entire day in a matter of about 15 minutes..

i'll post them very soon for you guys so you can get the early lines..

talk to you guys soon.

[Wind gara]

so what you think on orlando -7?

locked it already just curious if its a winner :P

[hedgejob]

i really like orlando tommorow. not sure why people arent jumping on magic -7 line

Cause they stiffed too many punters recently. Plenty of other games tomorrow.

[bustabook]

Plays for Friday, January 8th..

Toronto 102.8 - Philadelphia 103 (expected line: Philadelphia -0.2, 205.8)
Orlando 101.9 - Washington 101.6 (expected line: Orlando -0.3, 203.5)
Boston 100.1 - Atlanta 105.4 (expected line: Atlanta -5.3, 205.5)
Utah 100.9 - Memphis 105.9 (expected line: Memphis -5.0, 206.8)
Indiana 99.5 - Minnesota 101.1 (expected line: Minnesota -1.6, 200.6)
New Jersey 92.8 - New Orleans 102.2 (expected line: New Orleans -9.4, 195.0)
Chicago 93.8 - Milwaukee 100.8 (expected line: Milwaukee -7.0, 194.6)
Dallas 99.6 - San Antonio 104.1 (expected line: San Antonio -4.5, 203.7)
Miami 99.2 - Phoenix 110 (expected line: Phoenix -10.8, 209.2)
LA Lakers 101.9 - Portland 100.3 (expected line: LA Lakers -1.6, 202.2)
Cleveland 100.6 - Denver 107 (expected line: Denver -6.4, 207.6)
Sacramento 105.8 - Golden State 109.9 (expected line: Golden State -4.1, 215.7)

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my qualifier for "plays" is that the expected line is 1.5 points or more different than the actual line.. there are 3 games as of right now without lines.. and i am still not playing totals, even though following them showed some promise in the first day or two.

here are the plays:

washington (+7) *injury factor omission
atlanta (-3)
milwaukee (-4)
phoenix (-6.5)

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GL everyone, and thanks for the support..

[bustabook]

wind gara.. i don't really have an opinion on this game, it all depends on how much you think arenas is worth (point-wise) to the wizards..

if you take the recent game (against cleveland), than arenas is worth ALOT of points.. you have to make the decision, is arenas worth more than 6 points (actual line - expected line)?

hope this helps.

[Wind gara]

well the issue is that orlando is overdue for a good game.

this is like the one atl was playing nj the other day and knew they were going to blow them out.

overdue factor i guess. magic just been to crappy lately

[bustabook]

wind.. i dont know if i like using the word "due". i think if a team is playing badly, they are doing simply that.. playing badly.

detroit was "due" for about 5 games straight recently.. how did that work out?

[MrSleepy]

busta, my calculations for the over/unders are similar... like +/-4pts to yours and i always check in and compare your results with mine before i place my bets. keep up the great work buddy!

[bustabook]

all lines are out, so here is the final plays post for january 8th..

atlanta (-3)
milwaukee (-4)
phoenix (-6.5)
memphis (-3.5)
denver (+2.5)

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GL

[SpreadSniper]

denver (+2.5)

Awww man... I even gots my LBJ jersey on today.... watch out prior to tip off for injury info bro... Billups/Nene/Melo all won't be @ 100% if they play so tread easy

[bustabook]

good advice spread...

ok boys, here are the sims for today. do with them what you will...

Toronto @ Philadelphia (-1.5) 208
Average Score: Toronto 104 - Philadelphia 107 (Sim line: Philadelphia -3, 211)
Outright wins: Toronto 413 - Philadelphia 560 (Philadelphia 57.6%)
ATS wins: Toronto 473 - Philadelphia 527 (Philadelphia 52.7%)
O/U: Over 554 - Under 417 (Over 57.1%)

Orlando @ Washington (7) 201
Average Score: Orlando 105 - Washington 99 (Sim line: Orlando -6, 204)
Outright wins: Orlando 646 - Washington 338 (Orlando 65.7%)
ATS wins: Orlando 460 - Washington 516 (Washington 52.9%)
O/U: Over 551 - Under 422 (Over 56.6%)

Boston @ Atlanta (-3) 196
Average Score: Boston 99 - Atlanta 93 (Sim line: Boston -6, 192)
Outright wins: Boston 634 - Atlanta 332 (Boston 65.6%)
ATS wins: Boston 726 - Atlanta 254 (Boston 74.1%)
O/U: Over 366 - Under 601 (Under 62.2%)

Utah @ Memphis (-3) 202
Average Score: Utah 105 - Memphis 100 (Sim line: Utah -5, 205)
Outright wins: Utah 643 - Memphis 330 (Utah 66.1%)
ATS wins: Utah 725 - Memphis 253 (Utah 74.1%)
O/U: Over 582 - Under 389 (Over 59.9%)

Indiana @ Minnesota (-3) 206
Average Score: Indiana 102 - Minnesota 102 (Sim line: PK, 204)
Outright wins: Indiana 491 - Minnesota 489 (Indiana 50.1%)
ATS wins: Indiana 565 - Minnesota 414 (Indiana 57.7%)
O/U: Over 416 - Under 559 (Under 57.3%)

New Jersey @ New Orleans (-10.5) 193.5
Average Score: New Jersey 97 - New Orleans 104 (Sim line: New Orleans -7, 201)
Outright wins: New Jersey 290 - New Orleans 682 (New Orleans 70.2%)
ATS wins: New Jersey 585 - New Orleans 415 (New Jersey 58.5%)
O/U: Over 697 - Under 303 (Over 69.7%)

Chicago @ Milwaukee (-4) 193
Average Score: Chicago 92 - Milwaukee 98 (Sim line: Milwaukee -6, 190)
Outright wins: Chicago 332 - Milwaukee 634 (Milwaukee 65.6%)
ATS wins: Chicago 443 - Milwaukee 534 (Milwaukee 54.7%)
O/U: Over 411 - Under 563 (Under 57.8%)

Dallas @ San Antonio (-4) 195.5
Average Score: Dallas 93 - San Antonio 97 (Sim line: San Antonio -4, 190)
Outright wins: Dallas 390 - San Antonio 580 (San Antonio 59.8%)
ATS wins: Dallas 491 - San Antonio 482 (Dallas 50.5%)
O/U: Over 340 - Under 660 (Under 66.0%)

Miami @ Phoenix (-6.5) 213
Average Score: Miami 108 - Phoenix 104 (Sim line: Miami -4, 212)
Outright wins: Miami 604 - Phoenix 376 (Miami 61.6%)
ATS wins: Miami 752 - Phoenix 248 (Miami 75.2%)
O/U: Over 436 - Under 537 (Under 55.2%)

LA Lakers @ Portland (3) 194.5
Average Score: LA Lakers 100 - Portland 95 (Sim line: LA Lakers -5, 195)
Outright wins: LA Lakers 632 - Portland 343 (LA Lakers 64.8%)
ATS wins: LA Lakers 552 - Portland 422 (LA Lakers 56.7%)
O/U: Over 504 - Under 496 (Over 50.4%)

Cleveland @ Denver (-2) 206
Average Score: Cleveland 100 - Denver 98 (Sim line: Cleveland -2, 198)
Outright wins: Cleveland 555 - Denver 421 (Cleveland 56.9%)
ATS wins: Cleveland 594 - Denver 382 (Cleveland 60.9%)
O/U: Over 289 - Under 690 (Under 70.5%)

Sacramento @ Golden State (-3.5) 228
Average Score: Sacramento 110 - Golden State 109 (Sim line: Sacramento -1, 219)
Outright wins: Sacramento 520 - Golden State 453 (Sacramento 53.4%)
ATS wins: Sacramento 616 - Golden State 384 (Sacramento 61.6%)
O/U: Over 270 - Under 703 (Under 72.3%)

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i am running out the door so i didn't get a chance to bolden anything for you, so you have to look through it..

GL

[bustabook]

FWIW i have confidence in the new system regarding sides.. and still have alot of confidence in the sims totals.

[CHAZ]

Am I missing something???

all lines are out, so here is the final plays post for january 8th..

atlanta (-3)
milwaukee (-4)
phoenix (-6.5)
memphis (-3.5)
denver (+2.5)

Boston @ Atlanta (-3) 196
Average Score: Boston 99 - Atlanta 93 (Sim line: Boston -6, 192)
Outright wins: Boston 634 - Atlanta 332 (Boston 65.6%)
ATS wins: Boston 726 - Atlanta 254 (Boston 74.1%)
O/U: Over 366 - Under 601 (Under 62.2%)

Chicago @ Milwaukee (-4) 193
Average Score: Chicago 92 - Milwaukee 98 (Sim line: Milwaukee -6, 190)
Outright wins: Chicago 332 - Milwaukee 634 (Milwaukee 65.6%)
ATS wins: Chicago 443 - Milwaukee 534 (Milwaukee 54.7%)
O/U: Over 411 - Under 563 (Under 57.8%)

Miami @ Phoenix (-6.5) 213
Average Score: Miami 108 - Phoenix 104 (Sim line: Miami -4, 212)
Outright wins: Miami 604 - Phoenix 376 (Miami 61.6%)
ATS wins: Miami 752 - Phoenix 248 (Miami 75.2%)
O/U: Over 436 - Under 537 (Under 55.2%)


Utah @ Memphis (-3) 202
Average Score: Utah 105 - Memphis 100 (Sim line: Utah -5, 205)
Outright wins: Utah 643 - Memphis 330 (Utah 66.1%)
ATS wins: Utah 725 - Memphis 253 (Utah 74.1%)
O/U: Over 582 - Under 389 (Over 59.9%)

Cleveland @ Denver (-2) 206
Average Score: Cleveland 100 - Denver 98 (Sim line: Cleveland -2, 198)
Outright wins: Cleveland 555 - Denver 421 (Cleveland 56.9%)
ATS wins: Cleveland 594 - Denver 382 (Cleveland 60.9%)
O/U: Over 289 - Under 690 (Under 70.5%)

[Welt446+]

Am I missing something???

Yeah, I think he might have faded his own system on accident

[SpreadSniper]

I think he is compiling data from 2 different sims.... The ones he appears to be "fading" are the old system plays, I think his plays are based on the new system, but Im not 100%

[CHAZ]

Posted about 3 hours apart maybe he ran the sims again.....

[bustabook]

the plays are NOT based on the sims.. they are based on a completely different system that uses completely different statistics.. completely unrelated.

i didn't post plays for the sims.. the plays posted are for the "new" model, which is based on strengths/weaknesses of teams based on positions (PG, SG, SF, PF, C).

hope this helps.

[Wind gara]

son of a ..... 14-29 in the 4th. magic suxxxxxxx!!!duh

[JohnAnthony]

Great...

[CHAZ]

So the plays listed are the new system you are using and the simulations you posted are the old system used???

Correct?

[bustabook]

great what? everyone on the magic tonight?

[bustabook]

chaz... exactly..

[Time2Score]

Not looking good for me today...bucks not scoring at all in 4th on top of that magic screwed up big time once again...they turning out to be a big disappointment again just like playoffs last year...i just hope the grizzlies and suns can pull off something magicial or its gonna be a losing night for me once again...

[bustabook]

atlanta (-3)
milwaukee (-4)
phoenix (-6.5)
memphis (-3.5)
denver (+2.5)

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kind of a "tough luck" night.. as we lost 2 plays by less than 2 points. ended up 2-3, but could've been better..

for the next couple of hours i will be backtesting 2 models, both of which are based on the position performance system.. i will let you guys know how it goes..

[MrSleepy]

no worries busta. just do what you do. Is there a big difference between the 2 models you have now?

[lovesports]

[bustabook]

mrsleepy.. there is a pretty big difference between the two models. its hard to explain how they differ other than to tell you that they are reading the same statistics (based on positional strengths/weaknesses) but are interpreting them differently.

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i am going to post 2 sets of plays; version 1 and version 2.

version 1 is very basic and uses simple averages to determine expected lines. version 2 is more in-depth and uses a relative-strength approach in determining expected lines.

i only got to backtest version 2, and it was only tested for the last few weeks.. but the results were very solid, especially the plays in which the difference in expected line vs. actual line was over 7 points.. the system hit over 64% with those plays, and this includes sides AND totals.

give me just a few minutes and i will post both versions for tomorrows card.

[MrSleepy]

mrsleepy.. there is a pretty big difference between the two models. its hard to explain how they differ other than to tell you that they are reading the same statistics (based on positional strengths/weaknesses) but are interpreting them differently.

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i am going to post 2 sets of plays; version 1 and version 2.

version 1 is very basic and uses simple averages to determine expected lines. version 2 is more in-depth and uses a relative-strength approach in determining expected lines.

i only got to backtest version 2, and it was only tested for the last few weeks.. but the results were very solid, especially the plays in which the difference in expected line vs. actual line was over 7 points.. the system hit over 64% with those plays, and this includes sides AND totals.

my calculations i use is i would say similar to your version 1 as i am using basic averages to make my choices of plays. Maybe we just need to see more of the version 2 and see how it does. a few weeks of back testing should be more than enough to see if your system is working out.

i have my #s for 1/9 games so im very interested how your #s look for the next few games to come. great work though!

[bustabook]

Version 1: **** NOT BACKTESTED ****

Memphis 99.7 - Charlotte 96.99999 (expected line: Memphis -2.7, 196.7)
Side play: Memphis (+5.5) (Margin: 2.8)
Total Play: Under 200.5 (Margin: 3.8)
Atlanta 101 - Orlando 102.5 (expected line: Orlando -1.5, 203.5)
Side play: Atlanta (+3.5) (Margin: 2.0)
Total Play: Over 196 (Margin: 7.5)
Minnesota 94.3 - Chicago 97.2 (expected line: Chicago -2.9, 191.5)
Side play: Minnesota (+8.5) (Margin: 5.6)
Total Play: Under 199.5 (Margin: 8.0)


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Version 2: **** backtested w/good results ****

Memphis 95.2 - Charlotte 98.7 (Expected Line: Charlotte -3.5, 193.9)
Side play: Memphis (+5.5) (Margin: 2.0)
Total Play: Under 200.5 (Margin: 6.6)
Atlanta 99.3 - Orlando 101.9 (Expected Line: Orlando -2.6, 201.2)
Side play: Atlanta (+3.5) (Margin: 0.9)
Total Play: Over 196 (Margin: 5.2)
Minnesota 91.2 - Chicago 99.39999 (Expected Line: Chicago -8.2, 190.6)
Side play: Minnesota (+8.5) (Margin: 0.3)
Total Play: Under 199.5 (Margin: 8.9)

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Plays (Version 2):

Memphis/Charlotte Under 200.5
Atlanta/Orlando Over 196
Minnesota/Chicago Under 199.5*

* - indicates plays w/over 7 point difference between expected line/actual line.. these plays won at a rate of over 64% during backtesting.

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To qualify as a play, an expected side/total must be more than 3 points away from the actual side/total.

i only posted plays from version 2, because it is the only version which has been tested on prior games..

GL

[MrSleepy]

Plays (Version 2):

Memphis/Charlotte Under 200.5
Atlanta/Orlando Over 196
Minnesota/Chicago Under 199.5*

* - indicates plays w/over 7 point difference between expected line/actual line.. these plays won at a rate of over 64% during backtesting.

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To qualify as a play, an expected side/total must be more than 3 points away from the actual side/total.

i only posted plays from version 2, because it is the only version which has been tested on prior games..

GL

i have...
Atl/Orl UNDER
Min/Chi OVER
Mem/Cha UNDER

no other lines have come out yet. but the #s im getting are close to being right on the money with yours. we are talking MAYBE a hairline or 2 from the over/unders that can swing both ways. once all the #s are out, lets see how the rest of the #s turn out.

[Nick6570]

busta, just wondering how come you only have the lines and plays posted for three games?? not sure if you just haven't got to them.

[bustabook]

nick, when i posted them there were only lines for three games..

here are the rest..

Version 1: **** Not Backtested ****

Philadelphia 95.60001 - Detroit 95.79999 (expected line: Detroit -0.2, 191.4)
Side play: Philadelphia (+5) (Margin: 4.8)
Total Play: Under 192 (Margin: 0.6)
Indiana 95.6 - Okla City 101.3 (expected line: Okla City -5.7, 196.9)
Side play: Indiana (+8.5) (Margin: 2.8)
Total Play: Under 206 (Margin: 9.1)
Utah 97.4 - Dallas 101.8 (expected line: Dallas -4.4, 199.2)
Side play: Utah (+7.5) (Margin: 3.1)
Total Play: Over 196 (Margin: 3.2)
New York 99.7 - Houston 102.7 (expected line: Houston -3.0, 202.4)
Side play: New York (+6.5) (Margin: 3.5)
Total Play: Under 202.5 (Margin: 0.1)
Denver 104.9 - Sacramento 104.9 (expected line: Pick 0.0, 209.8)
Side play: Denver (+1.5) (Margin: 1.5)
Total Play: Under 214 (Margin: 4.2)

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Version 2: **** Backtested w/good results ****

Philadelphia 92.2 - Detroit 95.2 (Expected Line: Detroit -3.0, 187.4)
Side play: Philadelphia (+5) (Margin: 2.0)
Total Play: Under 192 (Margin: 4.6)
Indiana 92.60001 - Okla City 104.1 (Expected Line: Okla City -11.5, 196.7)
Side play: Okla City (-8.5) (Margin: 3.0)
Total Play: Under 206 (Margin: 9.3)
Utah 95.5 - Dallas 100.4 (Expected Line: Dallas -4.9, 195.9)
Side play: Utah (+7.5) (Margin: 2.6)
Total Play: Under 196 (Margin: 0.1)
New York 100.1 - Houston 105.2 (Expected Line: Houston -5.1, 205.3)
Side play: New York (+6.5) (Margin: 1.4)
Total Play: Over 202.5 (Margin: 2.8)
Denver 110.8 - Sacramento 107.4 (Expected Line: Denver 3.4, 218.2)
Side play: Denver (+1.5) (Margin: 4.9)
Total Play: Over 214 (Margin: 4.2)

Plays (for Version 2):

Philadelphia/Detroit Under 192
Oklahoma City (-8.5)
Indiana/Oklahoma City Under 206*
Denver (+1.5)
Denver/Sacramento Over 214

* - * - indicates plays w/over 7 point difference between expected line/actual line.. these plays won at a rate of over 64% during backtesting.

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here are the rest of the plays.. there are only 2 plays today which fall under the "64%" category, and they are Minnesota/Chicago Under 199.5 and Indiana/Oklahoma City Under 206.

GL

[Fairweatherfan]

I know this new system takes into account injuries, so does it also take into account people returning? Granger being back for the Pacers could make a significant difference.

[bustabook]

as of right now neither system takes into account for injuries... i am leaving it up to you guys to decide whether a team is too banged up to play.

[bustabook]

Wtf is going on.

Philadelphia/detroit.. They score 63 points in the 4th quarter of a ****ing blowout to **** the under.. Not to mention 12 points in the last minute.

Minnesota/chicago.. They score 63 points in the 4th quarter of a ****ing blowout to **** the under.

Meanwhile, atlanta/orlando fall asleep in the 4th quarter to **** the over.

Someone just shoot me in the ****ing face and put me out of my misery.