Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

thanks simon, you too!

[bustabook]

for those of you still checking out the thread, here is a glimpse into the next big thing for me..

it will make plays based on the strengths/weaknesses of teams, compared to the other team's strengths/weaknesses..

i have high expectations for this.

[palmer2712]

on a personal note.. i hate the indiana play and would recommend playing orlando (based on position strengths/weaknesses) for both teams.

hope this helps.

You may look at this as a push and a No play. If you have a match on sims and S/W, then a strong play on that.

[bustabook]

to give you guys a better idea of what i am talking about when saying "a team's strengths/weaknesses"..

take a look at this..

[Intangible]

Interesting, keep at it busta

[bustabook]

got alot done on the "positional performance" model.. here is the last screenshot before i go to bed. enjoy.



if you notice... this is a matchup for tomorrow. i haven't gotten a formula put together for backtesting yet, but i should have something by tomorrow.

i am really enjoying putting this thing together, it looks like it could have alot of potential.

[bustabook]

just a quick formula, adding all the effective points by position together.. here are the results for tomorrow..

----------------------


new jersey 94.3 - atlanta 102.9 (expected spread: atlanta -9, 197)
washington 96.2 - cleveland 101.4 (expected spread: cleveland -5, 198)
toronto 99.6 - orlando 103.5 (expected spread: orlando -4, 202)
boston 98.8 - miami 94.9 (expected spread: boston -4, 194)
golden state 106.2 - minnesota 103.9 (expected spread: golden state -2, 210)
new orleans 97.2 - oklahoma city 99.7 (expected spread: oklahoma city -3, 197)
detroit 93.7 - san antonio 99.0 (expected spread: san antonio -5, 193)
houston 103.6 - phoenix 104.8 (expected spread: phoenix -1, 209)
memphis 101.0 - utah 102.1 (expected spread: utah -1, 203)
la lakers 101.9 - la clippers 96.7 (expected spread: la lakers -5, 199)

-----------------------

this is not the final version or anything near it.. i just thought it would be interesting to see what the effective points per position turned up. these numbers DO NOT account for injuries, home-court, scheduling or anything else that may affect lines/scores.

i will be adding those adjustments into this in the next day or so..

[Jak]

Looks great!

[jeepsguy004]

Keep up the good work Busta.

[MrSleepy]

very interesting. my #s are similar to yours using a different formula. will be keeping an eye out on this. good work!

[Welt446+]

You may look at this as a push and a No play. If you have a match on sims and S/W, then a strong play on that.

That's a really good idea.

[SpreadSniper]

Keep on it bro... thats some interesting stuff you got going there... Was hoping you were locked in a room somewhere cooking up something new

[bustabook]

Keep on it bro... thats some interesting stuff you got going there... Was hoping you were locked in a room somewhere cooking up something new

you know me all too well..

[bustabook]

ok boys, i haven't gotten to backtest it yet.. but i put together a little formula that includes home-court advantage.. here were the results for today..

----------------------------

New Jersey 92.1 - Atlanta 107.4 (expected line: Atlanta -15.3, 199.5)
Washington 97.5 - Cleveland 104.2 (expected line: Cleveland -6.7, 201.7)
Toronto 101.1 - Orlando 105.9 (expected line: Orlando -4.8, 207.0)
Boston 99.6 - Miami 99.3 (expected line: Boston -0.3, 198.9)
Golden State 106.6 - Minnesota 103.1 (expected line: Golden State -3.5, 209.7)
New Orleans 97.7 - Okla City 102.4 (expected line: Okla City -4.7, 200.1)
Detroit 92.4 - San Antonio 103.7 (expected line: San Antonio -11.3, 196.1)
Houston 102.2 - Phoenix 110.7 (expected line: Phoenix -8.5, 212.9)
Memphis 102.5 - Utah 104.3 (expected line: Utah -1.8, 206.8)
LA Lakers 103.3 - LA Clippers 99.7 (expected line: LA Lakers -3.6, 203.0)

---------------------

plays:

atlanta (-14)
washington (+13)
toronto (+7.5)
golden state (+2.5)
san antonio (-10)
phoenix (-4.5)
memphis (+5.5)
la clippers (+5)

BIGGEST DIFFERENCES (hopefully stronger plays): washington (+13), golden state (+2.5)

i am not going to include over/under plays at this point.. i want to take a closer look at it first.

[bustabook]

summary for position performance model, january 6th..

---------------------

atlanta (-14)
washington (+13)
toronto (+7.5)
golden state (+2.5)
san antonio (-10)
phoenix (-4.5)
memphis (+5.5)
la clippers (+5)

--------------------

looks like 6-2, feels good to start off on the right foot with this model.. i have high expectations for it.

that being said, it is not a finished product and i still need to add some things.. but the fact that it destroyed the card tonight makes me feel good about using this formula as a base.

[bustabook]

there is only one game tomorrow...

Charlotte 94.8 - New York 103.1 (expected line: New York -8.3, 197.9)

the play is on the New York Knicks (-3.5)..

----------------------

GL if anyone is following..

[lovesports]

summary for position performance model, january 6th..

---------------------

atlanta (-14)
washington (+13)
toronto (+7.5)
golden state (+2.5)
san antonio (-10)
phoenix (-4.5)
memphis (+5.5)
la clippers (+5)

--------------------

looks like 6-2, feels good to start off on the right foot with this model.. i have high expectations for it.

that being said, it is not a finished product and i still need to add some things.. but the fact that it destroyed the card tonight makes me feel good about using this formula as a base.

excellent results!!!

Keep it up!

[Welt446+]

ok boys, i haven't gotten to backtest it yet.. but i put together a little formula that includes home-court advantage.. here were the results for today..

----------------------------

New Jersey 92.1 - Atlanta 107.4 (expected line: Atlanta -15.3, 199.5)
Washington 97.5 - Cleveland 104.2 (expected line: Cleveland -6.7, 201.7)
Toronto 101.1 - Orlando 105.9 (expected line: Orlando -4.8, 207.0)
Boston 99.6 - Miami 99.3 (expected line: Boston -0.3, 198.9)
Golden State 106.6 - Minnesota 103.1 (expected line: Golden State -3.5, 209.7)
New Orleans 97.7 - Okla City 102.4 (expected line: Okla City -4.7, 200.1)
Detroit 92.4 - San Antonio 103.7 (expected line: San Antonio -11.3, 196.1)
Houston 102.2 - Phoenix 110.7 (expected line: Phoenix -8.5, 212.9)
Memphis 102.5 - Utah 104.3 (expected line: Utah -1.8, 206.8)
LA Lakers 103.3 - LA Clippers 99.7 (expected line: LA Lakers -3.6, 203.0)

---------------------

plays:

atlanta (-14)
washington (+13)
toronto (+7.5)
golden state (+2.5)
san antonio (-10)
phoenix (-4.5)
memphis (+5.5)
la clippers (+5)

BIGGEST DIFFERENCES (hopefully stronger plays): washington (+13), golden state (+2.5)

i am not going to include over/under plays at this point.. i want to take a closer look at it first.

Nice to see you again busta.

[Wind gara]

and he is back!
welcome back bro. let the winners keep rolling

[Wind gara]

hey what is the play on over and under?

[krazey47409]

good work hopefully this one wont get sloppy like the last one but 75% great night 6-2

[Time2Score]

hey what is the play on over and under?

According to the sim he ran it seems as if the O/U is a No Play as it falls pretty much exactly on the 197 Total, which would be a toss up. Hope this helps

[Time2Score]

Welcome back Busta looking forward to this new project of yours!

[Nick6570]

good work hopefully this one wont get sloppy like the last one but 75% great night 6-2

Im not sure the word "sloppy" is a good word to describe bustas last system. I would re-read what you post, considering your not the one doing all the work.

[SpreadSniper]

summary for position performance model, january 6th..

---------------------

atlanta (-14)
washington (+13)
toronto (+7.5)
golden state (+2.5)
san antonio (-10)
phoenix (-4.5)
memphis (+5.5)
la clippers (+5)

--------------------



I was locked in on Was too bro - then I hear Arenas was suspended
Oh well, can't win em all....

[KJ90]

busta any thoughts on the u/o nicks game??

[dogs1972]

Im not sure the word "sloppy" is a good word to describe bustas last system. I would re-read what you post, considering your not the one doing all the work.

I dont think krazey was trying to be disrespectful. i'm a busta fan, but sloppy results was what the system produced. He put a ton of work into it and i commend him for that, hes a stud, but the last system produced erratic results. This wasnt Busta's fault plus hes still working on it, but the way the system was set up previously there were some where great days and there were some were terrible, it lacked in consistancy....sloppy.

[Nick6570]

I dont think krazey was trying to be disrespectful. i'm a busta fan, but sloppy results was what the system produced. He put a ton of work into it and i commend him for that, hes a stud, but the last system produced erratic results. This wasnt Busta's fault plus hes still working on it, but the way the system was set up previously there were some where great days and there were some were terrible, it lacked in consistancy....sloppy.

I understand what your saying, but I still don't think the word "sloppy" was appropriate to describe someone elses work. I mean would you like someone to refer to something you did as sloppy, no matter how they meant it??

[vic]

Hi Busta, just to let you know. Yesterday result was better than any sim on the net. Most of them when 5-5, only Dunkel 7-3. Dunkel are off most of the time.

[palmer2712]

summary for position performance model, january 6th..

---------------------

atlanta (-14)
washington (+13)
toronto (+7.5)
golden state (+2.5)
san antonio (-10)
phoenix (-4.5)
memphis (+5.5)
la clippers (+5)

--------------------

looks like 6-2, feels good to start off on the right foot with this model.. i have high expectations for it.

that being said, it is not a finished product and i still need to add some things.. but the fact that it destroyed the card tonight makes me feel good about using this formula as a base.

Yep, I would say it went 6-1. You can almost cancel the Washington game once Arenas was announced out.

[ijenpo]

Best of luck on the success of your sims.

[doublec]

Busta, I sure hope you have Milwaukee beating the spread tomorrow. My numbers have that as an easy win.

[biker1284]

Busta, I sure hope you have Milwaukee beating the spread tomorrow. My numbers have that as an easy win.

I know you're running numbers, but I'd be careful... Bucks are 3-7 in L10, bulls 6-4 and had a nice hot streak until their past two games. The three times they've met (including pre-season) were decided by 1, 2, and 2. The bulls are healthy now, it's close to home, and they've still gotta make Vinny look good in a winnable game. It's a close call.

[Wind gara]

i really like orlando tommorow. not sure why people arent jumping on magic -7 line

[Pensinger1]

keep up the good work bustabook. looking forward to tomorrow's sim's.