Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[CHAZ]

Enough with everyone posting there own picks. Everyone is in here for busta's simulations and to talk about valid points pertaining to his picks. Anything else get out start your own thread. Your wasting space and your own time.

[mlb]

balling

[Time2Score]

Enough with everyone posting there own picks. Everyone is in here for busta's simulations and to talk about valid points pertaining to his picks. Anything else get out start your own thread. Your wasting space and your own time.

As you can see there are no sims out yet for today, and if you didn't notice we are talking about possible picks and lines for todays games. Its called a discussion and busta has never once complained about his followers to discuss with each other about games and updates on the players or teams. If you're gonna just follow the sims sit down quietly and stop complaining about wasted space as you're not doing jack s**t to help out this thread.

[CHAZ]

My post was towards Palmer, the guy just posting random picks anywhere from college basketball to college football. Last time I checked this was busta's simulation thread in the NBA handicapping section. I guess you missed the part where I said valid points or you would of already known I wasn't talking to you.

[krazey47409]

im done messing with these sims they aint gonna make you no money or at leats not the type of monye im looking for

[Nick6570]

what did you expect to get rich quick?? People need to stop bitching about how the plays are doing or arent doing, if you dont like them, then get off the fourm.

[iNEEDSmoney]

what did you expect to get rich quick?? People need to stop bitching about how the plays are doing or arent doing, if you dont like them, then get off the fourm.

i agree. i mean lets not be ungrateful. busta didnt even once mention charging us. im sure what hes doing is hella time consuming, so lets be thankful and not bash. also, he titles this as a BETA. i dont know about the complainers but i assumed there would be tons of bumps along the way. i mean, not even pro cappers are perfect.

[mantorras77]

Enough with everyone posting there own picks. Everyone is in here for busta's simulations and to talk about valid points pertaining to his picks. Anything else get out start your own thread. Your wasting space and your own time.

I totally agree Chaz...i'm here for Busta's picks and his picks only since this is his thread. The "hijacking" going on in this thread is ridiculous.

[mlb]

balling

[tnnt]

it was a very tough card. Most of us did not win Go easy on the guy.

[Wind gara]

anyone know what is up with busta? seems he just is takeing time off?

[iNEEDSmoney]

i have wondered too. maybe hes working on the system, or like you said-taking time off.

[$Burm$]

absolutely pitiful..cant stand all this hijacking of picks

[mlb]

pitiful i tell ya

[ijenpo]

If the sims keep picking losers, it's not a total loss. Just start fading the picks for some $.

[Time2Score]

~12/30 Plays~
Miami ATS -1 2u
Miami Over 192 1u
Orlando ATS -10.5 1u
Memphis ATS -3 4u
Charlotte ATS +5.5 2u
New York ATS -2.5 4u
Sacramento ATS -2.5 2u
Phoenix ATS -5 2u
Phoenix Over 206.5 3u

College (if interested)
Texas Arl ATS +33 1u
UNC ATS -25.5 1u
St. Marys ATS -29.5 1u
Temple ATS -12.5 3u

Total Risking 32.4u to win 27u

Fade or Follow simple as that.

[mlb]

i wish busta would come back for one last horra

[suicidekings]

anyone know what is up with busta? seems he just is takeing time off?

Probably enjoying the holidays, putting the hobby on hold for a bit...

The first rule of systems like this one is when it fails, shut it down immediately. I know everyone enjoys the sim data, but for those of you complaining about him not posting picks, cut him some slack. Running these sims is tedious work and doing every game is time consuming. He'll start it up again when he's ready.

[bustabook]

thanks for the support, fellas..

i have been really really frustrated over the last few days and needed to take a break from it. i am not killing the project or anything like that, just needed some time to re-evaluate it.

you guys can feel free to post your own plays in here, i like seeing them and take no offense at all..

FWIW i went pretty big on detroit in today's early game, GL

[BullDozer]

thanks for the support, fellas..

i have been really really frustrated over the last few days and needed to take a break from it. i am not killing the project or anything like that, just needed some time to re-evaluate it.

you guys can feel free to post your own plays in here, i like seeing them and take no offense at all..

FWIW i went pretty big on detroit in today's early game, GL

Hope the New Year gets better for you. That Detroit game was a pisser....

[jeepsguy004]

Alright busta. Good to hear from you. Hop you had a good holiday.

[Jshap1515]

Not everyday can be a winner.

[SpreadSniper]

Back at er today bud, we'll get em....

[mlb]

this forum kinda died .. but im resurrecting it

[LaiLai]

Busta. I'm kinda disappointed with you.
Just a few days of failure. And you got so depressed.
You Should know from the very first day.
That computers are man made.
And dun forget.
You Did won alot at the start.
If you continue.
Who knows the bad days may only be for a week at most??"
Come On.
BUCK UP!!*
DUN MAKE ME LOOK DOWN ON YOU!!*

[Trev Dog]

man chill out lailai... he already said he was just re-evaluating and not killing it all together. Buck up cowboy...DUN make busta look down on you.. With that said, yes, im rather anxious to hear from him myself. patience my friend.

[CHAZ]

Any picks today Busta?

[LaiLai]

busta made a pick daily on william best bet thread. not sure abt the score though.

[HeX]

what do you think about accuscore , cause seems like all simulation software gets 50%

[LaiLai]

actually i think all software is the same. he's current soft ware is infact quite accurate. but there's no 100percent. he have to learnt to accept it. maybe he's takiing it to hard. NOBODY'S BLAMING YOU BUSTA!!*

[bustabook]

ok guys, here's whats going on..

i haven't been running the sims very much lately and i apologize.. its not because i have lost faith in the simulation process or the model, its just that i hate giving you guys plays that are sub-par and thats what was happening as of late.

i have a few theories on what is happening of late, and i am still working on correcting the problem. for one, i think injuries are taking a bigger toll as the season goes on and since this particular model doesn't account for injuries, it's causing a disparity in the sim results vs actual results. also, i never realistically thought that the program would continue to run at 60%.. i think that alot of the late downswing is simply a "correction" (in stockmarket terms). that being said, i don't think it is impossible to hit 60% of plays solely using a simulation program..

that brings me to my next point.. i have ideas for about 3-4 other models that i think could be very powerful once combined into one. one has to do with player's plus/minus ratings (mostly for injury adjustment), another to do with using PER ratings to predict outcomes, another is a simulation model weighted for recent play, and another (my favorite so far) has to do with team vs. team strengths/weaknesses by position. i also have some ideas for incorporating "motivational factors" into a model but haven't quite wrapped my head around how i want to do it.

i have been working hard on the new models, and as i finish them to a satisfactory state i will be posting results/plays for you guys. stay tuned to the thread for the next couple weeks.. i assure you that you will NOT be disappointed with some of the things you will find.

as for now, i will try to keep posting the old model's sims and you guys can do with them what you will..

here ya go, GL

----------------------

Atlanta @ Miami (1.5) 196.5
Average Score: Atlanta 99 - Miami 98 (Sim line: Atlanta -1, 197)
Outright wins: Atlanta 545 - Miami 438 (Atlanta 55.4%)
ATS wins: Atlanta 512 - Miami 488 (Atlanta 51.2%)
O/U: Over 527 - Under 473 (Over 52.7%)

Okla City @ Chicago (-1.5) 193.5
Average Score: Okla City 91 - Chicago 92 (Sim line: Chicago -1, 183)
Outright wins: Okla City 460 - Chicago 515 (Chicago 52.8%)
ATS wins: Okla City 514 - Chicago 486 (Okla City 51.4%)
O/U: Over 257 - Under 743 (Under 74.3%)

New Orleans @ Utah (-8) 197
Average Score: New Orleans 94 - Utah 104 (Sim line: Utah -10, 198)
Outright wins: New Orleans 237 - Utah 745 (Utah 75.9%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 413 - Utah 567 (Utah 57.9%)
O/U: Over 476 - Under 507 (Under 51.6%)

Portland @ LA Clippers (-3) 188
Average Score: Portland 101 - LA Clippers 98 (Sim line: Portland -3, 199)
Outright wins: Portland 552 - LA Clippers 426 (Portland 56.4%)
ATS wins: Portland 624 - LA Clippers 354 (Portland 63.8%)
O/U: Over 756 - Under 223 (Over 77.2%)

-------------

i have reverted back to only playing plays over the 54% mark, and will be omitting any games involving teams with a high injury rate.

so the plays for today, january 4th are:

Oklahoma City/Chicago Under 193.5
Utah (-8)

-------------------

Best of luck everyone, and thanks again for all the support.. i won't let you guys down.

[palmer2712]

Sounds good Busta. Looking forward to emails. Information is still helpful

[bustabook]

Orlando @ Indiana (11) 210
Average Score: Orlando 103 - Indiana 96 (Sim line: Orlando -7, 199)
Outright wins: Orlando 642 - Indiana 331 (Orlando 66.0%)
ATS wins: Orlando 368 - Indiana 602 (Indiana 62.1%)
O/U: Over 225 - Under 755 (Under 77.0%)

Washington @ Philadelphia (-4.5) 206.5
Average Score: Washington 104 - Philadelphia 106 (Sim line: Philadelphia -2, 210)
Outright wins: Washington 422 - Philadelphia 553 (Philadelphia 56.7%)
ATS wins: Washington 562 - Philadelphia 438 (Washington 56.2%)
O/U: Over 587 - Under 413 (Over 58.7%)

Chicago @ Charlotte (-6.5) 187
Average Score: Chicago 88 - Charlotte 91 (Sim line: Charlotte -3, 179)
Outright wins: Chicago 412 - Charlotte 575 (Charlotte 58.3%)
ATS wins: Chicago 595 - Charlotte 405 (Chicago 59.5%)
O/U: Over 282 - Under 700 (Under 71.3%)

Milwaukee @ New Jersey (1.5) 191
Average Score: Milwaukee 102 - New Jersey 93 (Sim line: Milwaukee -9, 195)
Outright wins: Milwaukee 707 - New Jersey 268 (Milwaukee 72.5%)
ATS wins: Milwaukee 683 - New Jersey 317 (Milwaukee 68.3%)
O/U: Over 596 - Under 386 (Over 60.7%)

Detroit @ Dallas (-8.5) 189.5
Average Score: Detroit 91 - Dallas 106 (Sim line: Dallas -15, 197)
Outright wins: Detroit 157 - Dallas 825 (Dallas 84.0%)
ATS wins: Detroit 343 - Dallas 657 (Dallas 65.7%)
O/U: Over 675 - Under 325 (Over 67.5%)

Golden State @ Denver (-6) 222.5
Average Score: Golden State 97 - Denver 113 (Sim line: Denver -16, 210)
Outright wins: Golden State 163 - Denver 820 (Denver 83.4%)
ATS wins: Golden State 270 - Denver 712 (Denver 72.5%)
O/U: Over 218 - Under 782 (Under 78.2%)

Memphis @ Portland (-1) 199.5
Average Score: Memphis 96 - Portland 105 (Sim line: Portland -9, 201)
Outright wins: Memphis 257 - Portland 719 (Portland 73.7%)
ATS wins: Memphis 281 - Portland 690 (Portland 71.1%)
O/U: Over 559 - Under 441 (Over 55.9%)

Phoenix @ Sacramento (2.5) 225.5
Average Score: Phoenix 111 - Sacramento 112 (Sim line: Sacramento -1, 223)
Outright wins: Phoenix 467 - Sacramento 505 (Sacramento 52.0%)
ATS wins: Phoenix 416 - Sacramento 584 (Sacramento 58.4%)
O/U: Over 433 - Under 567 (Under 56.7%)

-----------------

Plays:

Indiana (+11)
Orlando/Indiana (Under 210)
Washington (+4.5)
Washington/Philadelphia (Over 206.5)
Chicago (+6.5)
Chicago/Charlotte (Under 187)
Milwaukee (-1.5)
Milwaukee/New Jersey (Over 191)
Dallas (-8.5)
Detroit/Dallas (Over 189.5)
Denver (-6)
Golden State/Denver (Under 222.5)
Portland (-1)
Portland/Memphis (Over 199.5)
Sacramento (+2.5)
Phoenix/Sacramento (Under 225.5)

---------------------

GL

[bustabook]

on a personal note.. i hate the indiana play and would recommend playing orlando (based on position strengths/weaknesses) for both teams.

hope this helps.

[SimonSayz]

Best of luck busta! Lets get em!