Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[nobodyukno]

maybe our luck is turning around.....

serves busta and us right after rondo missed pretty much 3 free throws for the under to win...

[acarmelo1]

[KJ90]

no sim today nba/ncaab?

[BullDozer]

Because of the holidays, I think he's been posting the picks later in the day. I'm sure they'll be here in a few hours.

[bustabook]

Milwaukee @ Charlotte (-4.5) 185
Average Score: Milwaukee 92 - Charlotte 96 (Sim line: Charlotte -4, 188)
Outright wins: Milwaukee 401 - Charlotte 567 (Charlotte 58.6%)
ATS wins: Milwaukee 543 - Charlotte 457 (Milwaukee 54.3%)
O/U: Over 583 - Under 385 (Over 60.2%)

Okla City @ New Jersey (6) 196.5
Average Score: Okla City 100 - New Jersey 89 (Sim line: Okla City -11, 189)
Outright wins: Okla City 778 - New Jersey 206 (Okla City 79.1%)
ATS wins: Okla City 644 - New Jersey 331 (Okla City 66.1%)
O/U: Over 305 - Under 695 (Under 69.5%)

Washington @ Memphis (-6) 206
Average Score: Washington 108 - Memphis 106 (Sim line: Washington -2, 214)
Outright wins: Washington 539 - Memphis 436 (Washington 55.3%)
ATS wins: Washington 687 - Memphis 289 (Washington 70.4%)
O/U: Over 660 - Under 304 (Over 68.5%)


LA Lakers @ Phoenix (-2.5) 202
Average Score: LA Lakers 109 - Phoenix 101 (Sim line: LA Lakers -8, 210)
Outright wins: LA Lakers 701 - Phoenix 283 (LA Lakers 71.2%)
ATS wins: LA Lakers 773 - Phoenix 227 (LA Lakers 77.3%)
O/U: Over 678 - Under 288 (Over 70.2%)


Philadelphia @ Portland (-7) 189
Average Score: Philadelphia 88 - Portland 106 (Sim line: Portland -18, 194)
Outright wins: Philadelphia 106 - Portland 878 (Portland 89.2%)
ATS wins: Philadelphia 222 - Portland 752 (Portland 77.2%)
O/U: Over 625 - Under 358 (Over 63.6%)


Denver @ Sacramento (-2.5) 210
Average Score: Denver 112 - Sacramento 106 (Sim line: Denver -6, 218)
Outright wins: Denver 652 - Sacramento 325 (Denver 66.7%)
ATS wins: Denver 714 - Sacramento 286 (Denver 71.4%)
O/U: Over 688 - Under 287 (Over 70.6%)


Boston @ Golden State (6) 212.5
Average Score: Boston 107 - Golden State 94 (Sim line: Boston -13, 201)
Outright wins: Boston 792 - Golden State 189 (Boston 80.7%)
ATS wins: Boston 657 - Golden State 315 (Boston 67.6%)
O/U: Over 218 - Under 782 (Under 78.2%)

--------------------------

here you go guys.. still swamped with alot of things right now, but I will post my own personal plays later on in the day.

the Lakers/Phoenix and Denver/Sacramento sims were ran with made-up lines so I will rerun them again and post them before gametime.

GL

[maderpaker]

goodluck to us!

[bustabook]

Ticket #17012321
December-28,4:38:17 Internet/-1
December-28,9:10:00
NBA STRAIGHT BET
[708] PHX SUNS u216-120 (B+½) 120/100

Ticket #17012322
December-28,4:38:17 Internet/-1
December-28,10:10:00
NBA STRAIGHT BET
[709] DEN NUGGETS o211-120 (B+½) 120/100

Ticket #17012323
December-28,4:38:17 Internet/-1
December-28,10:10:00
NBA STRAIGHT BET
[712] POR TRAIL BLAZERS -5-130 (B+1) 65/50

Ticket #17012319
December-28,4:38:17 Internet/-1
December-28,7:10:00
NBA STRAIGHT BET
[701] MIL BUCKS o186-120 (B+½) 60/50

Ticket #17012320
December-28,4:38:17 Internet/-1
December-28,7:40:00
NBA STRAIGHT BET
[704] NJ NETS u193-110 55/50

---------------

here is my personal card for today, i may add a little to a couple.. not sure.

what do you guys think?

[lovesports]

let's roll!!!

[LaiLai]

LoLs. I taking kings, thunder, bobcats, lakers, almost efvfery thing dfifferent gfrm urs

[acarmelo1]

Risk WIN
2.16 2.00 Basketball - 702 Charlotte Bobcats -4½ -108 for Game
2.16 2.00 Basketball - 707 Los Angeles Lakers pk -108 for Game
2.16 2.00 Basketball - 709 Denver Nuggets -2 -108 for Game

[incomeraise]

good luck to all today

[Indecent]

the Lakers/Phoenix and Denver/Sacramento sims were ran with made-up lines so I will rerun them again and post them before gametime.

Try dumping the output of each simulated game into a database or text file, etc. Then adjusting to any changes in the line would be as easy as reading in the results of your sims and using the new spread as comparison.

I know your sim doesn't take too long to run, but doing this would allow you to run all games at any time, regardless of whether the lines are out. And, it should only take a few seconds to read the file and adjust the predictions for line changes.

[krazey47409]

Phoenix Suns/Los Angeles Lakers ( U +215 -107) (FG) 1.00.93
Milwaukee Bucks/Charlotte Bobcats ( O +185 -149) (FG) 1.00.67#16231145: Straight (2009/12/28 17:50) New Jersey Nets/Oklahoma City Thunder ( U +196½ -165) (FG) 1.00.61#16231125: Straight (2009/12/28 17:49) Denver Nuggets/Sacramento Kings ( O +211 -115) (FG) 1.00.87#16231119: Straight (2009/12/28 17:48) Philadelphia 76ers/Portland Trailblazers ( O +192½ -115) (FG) 1.00.87#16231113: Straight (2009/12/28 17:48) Golden State Warriors/Boston Celtics ( U +210½ -115) (FG) 1.00.87#16231099: Straight (2009/12/28 17:47) Boston Celtics ( -5½ -110) (FG) 1.00.91#16231096: Straight (2009/12/28 17:47) Portland Trailblazers ( -6 -105) (FG) 1.00.95#16231089: Straight (2009/12/28 17:47) Denver Nuggets ( -1½ -115) (FG) 1.00.87#16231085: Straight (2009/12/28 17:46) Los Angeles Lakers ( -1 -111) (FG) 1.00.9#16231072: Straight (2009/12/28 17:46) Washington Wizards ( +6 -122) (FG) 1.090.89#16231034: Straight (2009/12/28 17:45) Oklahoma City Thunder ( -6 -106) (FG) 1.00.94#16231028: Straight (2009/12/28 17:45) Milwaukee Bucks ( +4½ -111) (FG) 1.00.9
playing the whole sim except for la o/u and wash o/u caus simm line diff Team Parlay #162975917 (Placed by Web)
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Moneyline
(712) Portland Trail Blazers -260 Mon@10:05p
Competitor711) Philadelphia 76ers
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Moneyline
(713) Boston Celtics -230 Mon@10:35p
Competitor714) Golden State Warriors
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Total
(713) Boston Celtics vs. (714) Golden State Warriors Under 210 Mon@10:35p

2 Team Parlay #162975690 (Placed by Web)
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Los Angeles Lakers -1 (-105) Mon@9:05p
Competitor708) Phoenix Suns
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(709) Denver Nuggets -1½ Mon@10:05p
Competitor710) Sacramento Kings

[bustabook]

yo indecent, how goes it?

you are right about simply adjusting the percentages based on the different lines, and usually i would just do so.. but the lines were way off of what i made-up (the Lakers O/U was 13 points off and the Denver line was 4.5 points off).

I wasn't exactly sure how much of an adjustment could be made accurately... but here are the last 2 games.

-------------------------

LA Lakers @ Phoenix (-1) 215
Average Score: LA Lakers 110 - Phoenix 101 (sim line: LA Lakers -8, 211)
Outright wins: LA Lakers 721 - Phoenix 256
ATS wins: LA Lakers 744 - Phoenix 234 (LA Lakers 76.1%)
O/U: Over 370 - Under 610 (Under 62.2%)

Denver @ Sacramento (2) 211
Average Score: Denver 112 - Sacramento 105 (sim line: Denver -7, 217)
Outright wins: Denver 660 - Sacramento 317
ATS wins: Denver 615 - Sacramento 362 (Denver 62.9%)
O/U: Over 620 - Under 360 (Over 63.3%)

--------------------------

[bustabook]

i'm off to see sherlock holmes and run some errands, so I will be back later on tonight.. hopefully to congratulate everyone on a huge night.

[palmer2712]

Any consensus picks tonight Busta?

[Indecent]

yo indecent, how goes it?

Very good. Been uber busy, but I suppose that's a good thing. How about you?

you are right about simply adjusting the percentages based on the different lines, and usually i would just do so.. but the lines were way off of what i made-up (the Lakers O/U was 13 points off and the Denver line was 4.5 points off).

I wasn't exactly sure how much of an adjustment could be made accurately... but here are the last 2 games.

What I meant is somewhere you program spits out the results of each of the 1,000 simulations. Then you have a different function that is the given the spread and reads the 1,000 simulated final scores one at a time and keeps track of which side covers how many times using the spread given as a parameter.

The possibilities of how you could use the output are endless... You could run the simulation once then use that functions to run the percentages on all spreads within 2 or 3 points of the posted spread to help with line movement, save the output to run backtesting, etc. I can't imagine having to run my system all the way through each time I wanted to do analyze for strengths/weaknesses.

[Fa9to5homie]

Lets see what we can do tonight....

Parlay # 1 Portland/Denver/Oklahoma ATS 50 to win 300
Parlay # 2 Boston/Milwaukee/Washington ATS 50 to win 300
Parlay # 3 Boston/Milwaukee/Oklahoma/Portland ATS & Denver ML 100 to win 2350
5pt Teaser L.A. +4pts/Denver +3.5pts 450 to win 315

GL to all

[Time2Score]

Thanks for sims busta! I gonna go against sim on a couple games for those who would like some input. Washington over might be a close call due to the fact that memphis at home plays pretty well and washington has struggled putting up points in the 2nd half in their past few games esp on the road. Kings coming off that "should have won" game against the lakers will try to bounce back here at home against the nuggets without billups. This means less points due to less free throws. If melo and the rest of the team can't hold up the drag i can see Evans leading his team to a big SU win here while the score going under by about 5. Good Luck to everyone today lets cash big especially on that OKC game!!!!!

[Time2Score]

Lets see what we can do tonight....

Parlay # 1 Portland/Denver/Oklahoma ATS 50 to win 300
Parlay # 2 Boston/Milwaukee/Washington ATS 50 to win 300
Parlay # 3 Boston/Milwaukee/Oklahoma/Portland ATS & Denver ML 100 to win 2350
5pt Teaser L.A. +4pts/Denver +3.5pts 450 to win 315

GL to all

Good luck bro, lets hope boston doesnt screw up like last night!

[doublec]

Busta, how big is the randomization factor in your model? Do you just pick a certain percentage (+ or - 5%, etc.) or do you use some kind of normalized data?

[Time2Score]

Dammit Washington going into overtime!! There goes my Under bet... 4-Team Parlay still in play with Portland -6 pending and SAC +1 pending. I had no idea Evans wasn't playing today hopefully someone else steps up and slows Melo down for me.

[bustabook]

Very good. Been uber busy, but I suppose that's a good thing. How about you?


What I meant is somewhere you program spits out the results of each of the 1,000 simulations. Then you have a different function that is the given the spread and reads the 1,000 simulated final scores one at a time and keeps track of which side covers how many times using the spread given as a parameter.

The possibilities of how you could use the output are endless... You could run the simulation once then use that functions to run the percentages on all spreads within 2 or 3 points of the posted spread to help with line movement, save the output to run backtesting, etc. I can't imagine having to run my system all the way through each time I wanted to do analyze for strengths/weaknesses.

ahhh i see now... i haven't created a code to dump the game scores into a textfile because i haven't had a reason to.

i still don't see how this could help all that much with backtesting, however, because if i change the model the results would be different for the games simulated.

it wont take but a couple of lines of code to dump the scores into a textfile.. i will do that tonight when i get a chance.. thanks indecent.

[$Burm$]

gosh haywood, make a FT

[mlb]

another rough night .... keep your head up man

[iNEEDSmoney]

wizards went into OT and messed up the undr. what a slap in the face.

[Indecent]

i still don't see how this could help all that much with backtesting, however, because if i change the model the results would be different for the games simulated.

Honestly, save them anyway. I'm glad I did, I found countless ways to pick apart my model to find strengths and weaknesses. It might not be useful to you, but it would probably take up very little space and could be useful in the future.

thanks indecent.

No problem. Any luck getting the database code working to run backtesting?

[alittlemoresound]

tomrorrow JUMP ON HOUSTON.... best play of the night... simulation or not...lets see what busta says...

i pick'd

HOU
OKC
CLEV

3 team parlay

[bsimp3021]

hou okc atl for me
what you like about clev?

[ron.angeles]

picks!!!

ATL (they are hot at home!!!) sure win by 8+ points
OKC (fatigue and chemistry situations makin me pick okc)
CHI (indiana is playin bad ball they suck ryt nw!)
NO ( if no ariza) if he plays i go for HOU
MIN ( im sure jefferson cn stop duncan and other players too cn bring it close)
LAL (BLOWOUT!!!)
DET OR NYK (confused?!?!?!) )
any suggestions and comments plez

[Time2Score]

Careful what you guys play on the Cle/Atl game they playing at ATL tomorrow then at CLE against each other again the next night. Weird shit might happen. OKC seems to be a good pick after seeing Durant show some consistancy lately and the Wizards coming off the overtime loss. I'm actually liking the over on the Chicago/Indiana game instead of touching the spread, reason being pacers are just too unpredictable right now some nights they on fire and others they not, and chicago is one of the biggest 2nd half screw up teams like New Jersey (something to always consider). I think this is a good spot for the Hornets to bounce back with a SU upset against the rockets. Even if ariza does play, he's been so inconsistent over the past 5 games that I wouldn't expect him to put up that many points carrying that injury on his shoulders too now. I predict NO leading at the half and closing the game out by about 7 points. The spurs are giving way too many points which makes it seem as if they are asking people to grab minnesota. If the line starts to drop I'm gonna have to hop on the spurs train and ride parker/ginobili/duncan to a pounding. Lakers will pound whether artest starts or not, if he starts expect great defense, if he doesn't expect bynum/odum/gasol to run the show as the warriors have nothing to stop them inside. Catch this line before it starts to go up! Detroit is the pick for me no doubt. For a couple of reasons, Prince is finally back in the line up and will start taking more shots eventually, their defense is pretty much all the got so i don't see the knicks on the road hitting down their 3's as easy and accurate as they do at home. We'll see what the sims have to say though! Kinda anxious to find out since a lot of these teams are on the back to back!!

[palmer2712]

I had OKC, Temple, Cal, N. Colo last night 4 for 4, but lost 4 out 5 on Sims picks. All good Though Busta. Lets get them back. 2night I am on. LAL, SA, Cornell, St. Marys, Minnesota, Howard, Ohio, and maybe Kentucky if line is -23 of lower. Waiting on Sims as well to see if any other BBall picks tonight. Oh Yeh, and the U -3.5

[KJ90]

yo busta dont you do the sims for college ball no more?

[palmer2712]

I had OKC, Temple, Cal, N. Colo last night 4 for 4, but lost 4 out 5 on Sims picks. All good Though Busta. Lets get them back. 2night I am on. LAL, SA, Cornell, St. Marys, Minnesota, Howard, Ohio, and maybe Kentucky if line is -23 of lower. Waiting on Sims as well to see if any other BBall picks tonight. Oh Yeh, and the U -3.5

Add Temple (Football) Pacific (basketball) and Houston rockets to my method of madness.

[lovesports]

any sims today?