Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

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  • bustabook
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-14-09
    • 737

    #911
    thanks simon, you too!
    Comment
    • bustabook
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-14-09
      • 737

      #912
      for those of you still checking out the thread, here is a glimpse into the next big thing for me..

      it will make plays based on the strengths/weaknesses of teams, compared to the other team's strengths/weaknesses..

      i have high expectations for this.

      Comment
      • palmer2712
        Restricted User
        • 10-06-09
        • 231

        #913
        Originally posted by bustabook
        on a personal note.. i hate the indiana play and would recommend playing orlando (based on position strengths/weaknesses) for both teams.

        hope this helps.

        You may look at this as a push and a No play. If you have a match on sims and S/W, then a strong play on that.
        Comment
        • bustabook
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-14-09
          • 737

          #914
          to give you guys a better idea of what i am talking about when saying "a team's strengths/weaknesses"..

          take a look at this..

          Comment
          • Intangible
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-09-09
            • 337

            #915
            Interesting, keep at it busta
            Comment
            • bustabook
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-14-09
              • 737

              #916
              got alot done on the "positional performance" model.. here is the last screenshot before i go to bed. enjoy.



              if you notice... this is a matchup for tomorrow. i haven't gotten a formula put together for backtesting yet, but i should have something by tomorrow.

              i am really enjoying putting this thing together, it looks like it could have alot of potential.
              Comment
              • bustabook
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 11-14-09
                • 737

                #917
                just a quick formula, adding all the effective points by position together.. here are the results for tomorrow..

                ----------------------


                new jersey 94.3 - atlanta 102.9 (expected spread: atlanta -9, 197)
                washington 96.2 - cleveland 101.4 (expected spread: cleveland -5, 198)
                toronto 99.6 - orlando 103.5 (expected spread: orlando -4, 202)
                boston 98.8 - miami 94.9 (expected spread: boston -4, 194)
                golden state 106.2 - minnesota 103.9 (expected spread: golden state -2, 210)
                new orleans 97.2 - oklahoma city 99.7 (expected spread: oklahoma city -3, 197)
                detroit 93.7 - san antonio 99.0 (expected spread: san antonio -5, 193)
                houston 103.6 - phoenix 104.8 (expected spread: phoenix -1, 209)
                memphis 101.0 - utah 102.1 (expected spread: utah -1, 203)
                la lakers 101.9 - la clippers 96.7 (expected spread: la lakers -5, 199)

                -----------------------

                this is not the final version or anything near it.. i just thought it would be interesting to see what the effective points per position turned up. these numbers DO NOT account for injuries, home-court, scheduling or anything else that may affect lines/scores.

                i will be adding those adjustments into this in the next day or so..
                Comment
                • Jak
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-30-09
                  • 181

                  #918
                  Looks great!
                  Comment
                  • jeepsguy004
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-20-09
                    • 1292

                    #919
                    Keep up the good work Busta.
                    Comment
                    • MrSleepy
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-17-09
                      • 129

                      #920
                      very interesting. my #s are similar to yours using a different formula. will be keeping an eye out on this. good work!
                      Comment
                      • Welt446+
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 12-04-09
                        • 185

                        #921
                        Originally posted by palmer2712
                        You may look at this as a push and a No play. If you have a match on sims and S/W, then a strong play on that.
                        That's a really good idea.
                        Comment
                        • SpreadSniper
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-17-09
                          • 6125

                          #922
                          Keep on it bro... thats some interesting stuff you got going there... Was hoping you were locked in a room somewhere cooking up something new
                          Comment
                          • bustabook
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 11-14-09
                            • 737

                            #923
                            Originally posted by SpreadSniper
                            Keep on it bro... thats some interesting stuff you got going there... Was hoping you were locked in a room somewhere cooking up something new
                            you know me all too well..
                            Comment
                            • bustabook
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-14-09
                              • 737

                              #924
                              ok boys, i haven't gotten to backtest it yet.. but i put together a little formula that includes home-court advantage.. here were the results for today..

                              ----------------------------

                              New Jersey 92.1 - Atlanta 107.4 (expected line: Atlanta -15.3, 199.5)
                              Washington 97.5 - Cleveland 104.2 (expected line: Cleveland -6.7, 201.7)
                              Toronto 101.1 - Orlando 105.9 (expected line: Orlando -4.8, 207.0)
                              Boston 99.6 - Miami 99.3 (expected line: Boston -0.3, 198.9)
                              Golden State 106.6 - Minnesota 103.1 (expected line: Golden State -3.5, 209.7)
                              New Orleans 97.7 - Okla City 102.4 (expected line: Okla City -4.7, 200.1)
                              Detroit 92.4 - San Antonio 103.7 (expected line: San Antonio -11.3, 196.1)
                              Houston 102.2 - Phoenix 110.7 (expected line: Phoenix -8.5, 212.9)
                              Memphis 102.5 - Utah 104.3 (expected line: Utah -1.8, 206.8)
                              LA Lakers 103.3 - LA Clippers 99.7 (expected line: LA Lakers -3.6, 203.0)

                              ---------------------

                              plays:

                              atlanta (-14)
                              washington (+13)
                              toronto (+7.5)
                              golden state (+2.5)
                              san antonio (-10)
                              phoenix (-4.5)
                              memphis (+5.5)
                              la clippers (+5)

                              BIGGEST DIFFERENCES (hopefully stronger plays): washington (+13), golden state (+2.5)

                              i am not going to include over/under plays at this point.. i want to take a closer look at it first.
                              Comment
                              • bustabook
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 11-14-09
                                • 737

                                #925
                                summary for position performance model, january 6th..

                                ---------------------

                                atlanta (-14)
                                washington (+13)

                                toronto (+7.5)
                                golden state (+2.5)
                                san antonio (-10)
                                phoenix (-4.5)
                                memphis (+5.5)
                                la clippers (+5)


                                --------------------

                                looks like 6-2, feels good to start off on the right foot with this model.. i have high expectations for it.

                                that being said, it is not a finished product and i still need to add some things.. but the fact that it destroyed the card tonight makes me feel good about using this formula as a base.
                                Comment
                                • bustabook
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-14-09
                                  • 737

                                  #926
                                  there is only one game tomorrow...

                                  Charlotte 94.8 - New York 103.1 (expected line: New York -8.3, 197.9)

                                  the play is on the New York Knicks (-3.5)..

                                  ----------------------

                                  GL if anyone is following..
                                  Comment
                                  • lovesports
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 12-20-09
                                    • 55

                                    #927
                                    Originally posted by bustabook
                                    summary for position performance model, january 6th..

                                    ---------------------

                                    atlanta (-14)
                                    washington (+13)

                                    toronto (+7.5)
                                    golden state (+2.5)
                                    san antonio (-10)
                                    phoenix (-4.5)
                                    memphis (+5.5)
                                    la clippers (+5)


                                    --------------------

                                    looks like 6-2, feels good to start off on the right foot with this model.. i have high expectations for it.

                                    that being said, it is not a finished product and i still need to add some things.. but the fact that it destroyed the card tonight makes me feel good about using this formula as a base.
                                    excellent results!!!

                                    Keep it up!
                                    Comment
                                    • Welt446+
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 12-04-09
                                      • 185

                                      #928
                                      Originally posted by bustabook
                                      ok boys, i haven't gotten to backtest it yet.. but i put together a little formula that includes home-court advantage.. here were the results for today..

                                      ----------------------------

                                      New Jersey 92.1 - Atlanta 107.4 (expected line: Atlanta -15.3, 199.5)
                                      Washington 97.5 - Cleveland 104.2 (expected line: Cleveland -6.7, 201.7)
                                      Toronto 101.1 - Orlando 105.9 (expected line: Orlando -4.8, 207.0)
                                      Boston 99.6 - Miami 99.3 (expected line: Boston -0.3, 198.9)
                                      Golden State 106.6 - Minnesota 103.1 (expected line: Golden State -3.5, 209.7)
                                      New Orleans 97.7 - Okla City 102.4 (expected line: Okla City -4.7, 200.1)
                                      Detroit 92.4 - San Antonio 103.7 (expected line: San Antonio -11.3, 196.1)
                                      Houston 102.2 - Phoenix 110.7 (expected line: Phoenix -8.5, 212.9)
                                      Memphis 102.5 - Utah 104.3 (expected line: Utah -1.8, 206.8)
                                      LA Lakers 103.3 - LA Clippers 99.7 (expected line: LA Lakers -3.6, 203.0)

                                      ---------------------

                                      plays:

                                      atlanta (-14)
                                      washington (+13)
                                      toronto (+7.5)
                                      golden state (+2.5)
                                      san antonio (-10)
                                      phoenix (-4.5)
                                      memphis (+5.5)
                                      la clippers (+5)

                                      BIGGEST DIFFERENCES (hopefully stronger plays): washington (+13), golden state (+2.5)

                                      i am not going to include over/under plays at this point.. i want to take a closer look at it first.
                                      Nice to see you again busta.
                                      Comment
                                      • Wind gara
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-06-09
                                        • 1515

                                        #929
                                        and he is back!
                                        welcome back bro. let the winners keep rolling
                                        Comment
                                        • Wind gara
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-06-09
                                          • 1515

                                          #930
                                          hey what is the play on over and under?
                                          Comment
                                          • krazey47409
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-04-09
                                            • 2431

                                            #931
                                            good work hopefully this one wont get sloppy like the last one but 75% great night 6-2
                                            Comment
                                            • Time2Score
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 11-23-09
                                              • 150

                                              #932
                                              Originally posted by Wind gara
                                              hey what is the play on over and under?
                                              According to the sim he ran it seems as if the O/U is a No Play as it falls pretty much exactly on the 197 Total, which would be a toss up. Hope this helps
                                              Comment
                                              • Time2Score
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-23-09
                                                • 150

                                                #933
                                                Welcome back Busta looking forward to this new project of yours!
                                                Comment
                                                • Nick6570
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 04-15-09
                                                  • 163

                                                  #934
                                                  Originally posted by krazey47409
                                                  good work hopefully this one wont get sloppy like the last one but 75% great night 6-2
                                                  Im not sure the word "sloppy" is a good word to describe bustas last system. I would re-read what you post, considering your not the one doing all the work.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SpreadSniper
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-17-09
                                                    • 6125

                                                    #935
                                                    Originally posted by bustabook
                                                    summary for position performance model, january 6th..

                                                    ---------------------

                                                    atlanta (-14)
                                                    washington (+13)

                                                    toronto (+7.5)
                                                    golden state (+2.5)
                                                    san antonio (-10)
                                                    phoenix (-4.5)
                                                    memphis (+5.5)
                                                    la clippers (+5)
                                                    --------------------



                                                    I was locked in on Was too bro - then I hear Arenas was suspended
                                                    Oh well, can't win em all....
                                                    Comment
                                                    • KJ90
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 09-26-08
                                                      • 683

                                                      #936
                                                      busta any thoughts on the u/o nicks game??
                                                      Comment
                                                      • dogs1972
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 11-22-09
                                                        • 509

                                                        #937
                                                        Originally posted by Nick6570
                                                        Im not sure the word "sloppy" is a good word to describe bustas last system. I would re-read what you post, considering your not the one doing all the work.
                                                        I dont think krazey was trying to be disrespectful. i'm a busta fan, but sloppy results was what the system produced. He put a ton of work into it and i commend him for that, hes a stud, but the last system produced erratic results. This wasnt Busta's fault plus hes still working on it, but the way the system was set up previously there were some where great days and there were some were terrible, it lacked in consistancy....sloppy.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Nick6570
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 04-15-09
                                                          • 163

                                                          #938
                                                          Originally posted by dogs1972
                                                          I dont think krazey was trying to be disrespectful. i'm a busta fan, but sloppy results was what the system produced. He put a ton of work into it and i commend him for that, hes a stud, but the last system produced erratic results. This wasnt Busta's fault plus hes still working on it, but the way the system was set up previously there were some where great days and there were some were terrible, it lacked in consistancy....sloppy.
                                                          I understand what your saying, but I still don't think the word "sloppy" was appropriate to describe someone elses work. I mean would you like someone to refer to something you did as sloppy, no matter how they meant it??
                                                          Comment
                                                          • vic
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 12-16-09
                                                            • 176

                                                            #939
                                                            Hi Busta, just to let you know. Yesterday result was better than any sim on the net. Most of them when 5-5, only Dunkel 7-3. Dunkel are off most of the time.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • palmer2712
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 10-06-09
                                                              • 231

                                                              #940
                                                              Originally posted by bustabook
                                                              summary for position performance model, january 6th..

                                                              ---------------------

                                                              atlanta (-14)
                                                              washington (+13)
                                                              toronto (+7.5)
                                                              golden state (+2.5)
                                                              san antonio (-10)
                                                              phoenix (-4.5)
                                                              memphis (+5.5)
                                                              la clippers (+5)


                                                              --------------------

                                                              looks like 6-2, feels good to start off on the right foot with this model.. i have high expectations for it.

                                                              that being said, it is not a finished product and i still need to add some things.. but the fact that it destroyed the card tonight makes me feel good about using this formula as a base.

                                                              Yep, I would say it went 6-1. You can almost cancel the Washington game once Arenas was announced out.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ijenpo
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 12-09-09
                                                                • 460

                                                                #941
                                                                Best of luck on the success of your sims.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • doublec
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 12-16-09
                                                                  • 196

                                                                  #942
                                                                  Busta, I sure hope you have Milwaukee beating the spread tomorrow. My numbers have that as an easy win.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • biker1284
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 01-05-10
                                                                    • 184

                                                                    #943
                                                                    Originally posted by doublec
                                                                    Busta, I sure hope you have Milwaukee beating the spread tomorrow. My numbers have that as an easy win.
                                                                    I know you're running numbers, but I'd be careful... Bucks are 3-7 in L10, bulls 6-4 and had a nice hot streak until their past two games. The three times they've met (including pre-season) were decided by 1, 2, and 2. The bulls are healthy now, it's close to home, and they've still gotta make Vinny look good in a winnable game. It's a close call.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Wind gara
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-06-09
                                                                      • 1515

                                                                      #944
                                                                      i really like orlando tommorow. not sure why people arent jumping on magic -7 line
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Pensinger1
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 12-23-08
                                                                        • 505

                                                                        #945
                                                                        keep up the good work bustabook. looking forward to tomorrow's sim's.
                                                                        Comment
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