Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[JohnAnthony]

How are we doing tonight busta?

[bustabook]

if you were betting the system blindly tonight you lost a small amount, but with a little bit of common sense you guys should have been able to pick out which plays to avoid and make a small profit.

like i said, if you use this information as a base for your plays.. you will be ok.

[palmer2712]

iagree busta. Anyway to start back up email on consensus picks with both your s/w mode; adn sims as well as your business partners? or place consensus picks on all systems in here. We all want to bustabook Thanks again.. How is college treating you?

[bustabook]

Version 2, January 17th...

Version 2 posted below.

[Wind gara]

shouldnt this be over?

but i think might be trick line. line too low

[bustabook]

line seems about right..

simulations say line should be 210.. but even that isnt that far off...

[bustabook]

Simulations, January 17:

Sims posted below.

[TGHMak]

My numbers are pretty close to yours, just need to find a way to filter out days like saturday and last friday

[JohnAnthony]

iagree busta. Anyway to start back up email on consensus picks with both your s/w mode; adn sims as well as your business partners? or place consensus picks on all systems in here. We all want to bustabook

I second that!

[bustabook]

Version 2, January 17:

Dallas 104.8 - Toronto 102.9 (Expected Line: Toronto +1.9, 207.7)
Side play: Dallas (-1.5) (Margin: 0.4)
Total Play: Over 206 (Margin: 1.7)

Utah 100.8 - Denver 105.7 (Expected Line: Denver -4.9, 206.5)
Side play: Denver (-3.5) (Margin: 1.4)
Total Play: Under 209 (Margin: 2.5)

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Simulations, January 17:

Dallas @ Toronto (1.5) 206
Average Score: Dallas 106 - Toronto 104
Outright wins: Dallas 561 - Toronto 421
ATS wins: Dallas 526 - Toronto 474
O/U: Over 575 - Under 394

Utah @ Denver (-3.5) 209
Average Score: Utah 100 - Denver 104
Outright wins: Utah 369 - Denver 608
ATS wins: Utah 492 - Denver 508
O/U: Over 348 - Under 626

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The Denver line isn't out yet, but I feel like Denver -3.5/209 is a fair line that should be close to the actual numbers.. I am posting the Denver game anyway because it will not be very hard to make the adjustment and find the margin yourself for the side/total (in version 2).

I don't see any big edges today, but I am really starting to like Denver.. Utah is coming on a B2B (3 games/4 nights, actually), having to go play in thin air versus a team that plays extremely well at home. I like denver all the way up to the "zero" margin, which would be Denver -5.. Anything above that and I think the value is gone, as Utah is still a good team.

So, in conclusion.. No plays today, but Denver is looking like they are in a good spot to catch a tired Utah team.

GL hope this helps.. if the line is way off I will re-run the sims/version2.

[bustabook]

the denver line opened up at 7..

no plays for the games today, boys. GL if you choose to bet.

btw.. im liking the jets/chargers under.

[Nick6570]

Hey busta are you gonna tell us which angles to go for on your picks or are you gonna leave that part up to us??
Thanks for the picks!!

[bustabook]

nick, there are no "huge" angles on the games today.. each of the margins are pretty small.

you are on your own today, i will run sims and version 2 tomorrow and we will have some plays.

GL bud.

[bustabook]

Version 2 Summary, January 18th...

Okla City 95.0 - Atlanta 101.5 (Expected Line: Atlanta -6.5, 196.5)
Side play: Atlanta (-6) (Margin: 0.5)
Total Play: Over 195.5 (Margin: 1.0)
Sacramento 95.3 - Charlotte 100.5 (Expected Line: Charlotte -5.2, 195.8)
Side play: Sacramento (+6.5) (Margin: 1.3)
Total Play: Under 196.5 (Margin: 0.7)
Milwaukee 95.1 - Houston 100.2 (Expected Line: Houston -5.1, 195.3)
Side play: Milwaukee (+6.5) (Margin: 1.4)
Total Play: Under 197 (Margin: 1.7)
Philadelphia 102.4 - Minnesota 99.6 (Expected Line: Minnesota +2.8, 202.0)
Side play: Philadelphia (-1.5) (Margin: 1.3)
Total Play: Under 205.5 (Margin: 3.5)
San Antonio 100.6 - New Orleans 95.8 (Expected Line: New Orleans +4.8, 196.4)
Side play: San Antonio (-1) (Margin: 3.8)
Total Play: Over 190.5 (Margin: 5.9)
Chicago 104.1 - Golden State 106.6 (Expected Line: Golden State -2.5, 210.7)
Side play: Golden State (+1) (Margin: 3.5)
Total Play: Under 218 (Margin: 7.3)
Phoenix 112.6 - Memphis 111.7 (Expected Line: Memphis +0.9, 224.3)
Side play: Phoenix (+2) (Margin: 2.9)
Total Play: Under 225 (Margin: 0.7)
Orlando 96.6 - LA Lakers 101.6 (Expected Line: LA Lakers -5.0, 198.2)
Side play: Orlando (+6) (Margin: 1.0)
Total Play: Under 202 (Margin: 3.8)

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I am looking over backtesting now and will have some plays out later on tonight..

[cinaj05]

to many games for tomorrow I'm just hoping we have a play tonight with so many game with big margins.

[bustabook]

cinja.. no plays from the systems tonight..

FWIW I took the denver Over 210, simply because of the heavy line movement early on in the day..

GL

[BullDozer]

cinja.. no plays from the systems tonight.. FWIW I took the denver Over 210, simply because of the heavy line movement early on in the day.. GL

I'm feeling good about this too. Took Utah at +7.5 and Over 213. Hopefully, I don't get screwed with by 3 points...

[bustabook]

yeah, i got lucky and saw the moving early.. but atleast you got a good line on utah

[bustabook]

Version 2 plays, January 18th...

Golden State (+1)
Chicago/Golden State (Under 218)
Phoenix (+2)

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There may be a couple more plays when the last few lines come out..

GL

[cinaj05]

Ok thanks, what time you will post the simulation for January 18th game? to many games to study.

[TheMaster]

Version 2, January 17th... Version 2 posted below.

You need to jump straight to version 10 which has the special handicapping app.

[bustabook]

lol master... it does seem like every time i say "FWIW.. here is what i like" it wins..

thats pretty funny, though..

[BigTrev]

WHOAH

Dam that was a close Jazz match, had denver down for -6.5.

cant believe i won by 0.5 of a point. had me on the edge of my seat lol

Thanks for the tip busta

[bustabook]

sure thing trev... you figure out that spread thing yet?

[BigTrev]

yeah i did , thanks a lot, i tried looking it up on the net but the examples they gave were long worded and hard to understand.

glad i understand it now. backed both the Raptors and Nuggets today

[MrSleepy]

nice Jan 18 calculations. yours and my predictions came REALLY close on all but 2 games. I will stay away from those 2 and make some kind of play on a few of the ones that we agree on.

[bustabook]

Simulations, January 18th...

Okla City @ Atlanta (-6) 195
Average Score: Okla City 95 - Atlanta 100 (Sim line: Atlanta -5, 195)
Outright wins: Okla City 380 - Atlanta 601 (Atlanta 61.3%)
ATS wins: Okla City 530 - Atlanta 452 (Okla City 54.0%)
O/U: Over 499 - Under 471 (Over 51.4%)

Sacramento @ Charlotte (-6.5) 196.5
Average Score: Sacramento 91 - Charlotte 103 (Sim line: Charlotte -12, 194)
Outright wins: Sacramento 195 - Charlotte 793 (Charlotte 80.3%)
ATS wins: Sacramento 356 - Charlotte 644 (Charlotte 64.4%)
O/U: Over 414 - Under 586 (Under 58.6%)

Milwaukee @ Houston (-6.5) 198
Average Score: Milwaukee 97 - Houston 99 (Sim line: Houston -2, 196)
Outright wins: Milwaukee 416 - Houston 559 (Houston 57.3%)
ATS wins: Milwaukee 599 - Houston 401 (Milwaukee 59.9%)
O/U: Over 447 - Under 534 (Under 54.4%)

Philadelphia @ Minnesota (1.5) 205.5
Average Score: Philadelphia 102 - Minnesota 106 (Sim line: Minnesota -4, 208)
Outright wins: Philadelphia 406 - Minnesota 575 (Minnesota 58.6%)
ATS wins: Philadelphia 382 - Minnesota 618 (Minnesota 61.8%)
O/U: Over 571 - Under 429 (Over 57.1%)

San Antonio @ New Orleans (1) 190.5
Average Score: San Antonio 101 - New Orleans 98 (Sim line: San Antonio -3, 199)
Outright wins: San Antonio 568 - New Orleans 407 (San Antonio 58.3%)
ATS wins: San Antonio 538 - New Orleans 432 (San Antonio 55.5%)
O/U: Over 710 - Under 290 (Over 71.0%)

Chicago @ Golden State (1) 218
Average Score: Chicago 103 - Golden State 100 (Sim line: Chicago -3, 203)
Outright wins: Chicago 550 - Golden State 416 (Chicago 56.9%)
ATS wins: Chicago 526 - Golden State 450 (Chicago 53.9%)
O/U: Over 144 - Under 848 (Under 85.5%)

Phoenix @ Memphis (-2) 225
Average Score: Phoenix 108 - Memphis 111 (Sim line: Memphis -3, 219)
Outright wins: Phoenix 410 - Memphis 569 (Memphis 58.1%)
ATS wins: Phoenix 457 - Memphis 518 (Memphis 53.1%)
O/U: Over 350 - Under 624 (Under 64.1%)

Orlando @ LA Lakers (-6.5) 202
Average Score: Orlando 93 - LA Lakers 99 (Sim line: LA Lakers -6, 192)
Outright wins: Orlando 333 - LA Lakers 635 (LA Lakers 65.6%)
ATS wins: Orlando 520 - LA Lakers 480 (Orlando 52.0%)
O/U: Over 254 - Under 729 (Under 74.2%)

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Here are the simulations for today, with a few left out i didn't have lines for...

I am heading out for a few hours and wont get a chance to post before the early games, so GL to everyone..

[gangeriver]

Charlotte (%64,4) and Lakers (%65,6)

I play

Good Luck busta!

[vic]

Busta, all lines are out. Will you run Ver 2 again or we'll just go with what we have from what you released last night? Just a question?

[CHAZ]

Golden state line has move to 216. What do you think???

[Nick6570]

Good Job busta, I feel like were gonna have a good night

[bustabook]

chaz... i was afraid of that.. i said somewhere to get that game in early because the line will move big time...

as it stands, i still like it. we lost 2 points of value because we were slow with the draw but i think it is still the right side.

[vic]

Busta, can you give me the result for Celtics game on Ver 2? TKS.

[bustabook]

here you go, vic...

Okla City 95.0 - Atlanta 101.5 (Expected Line: Atlanta -6.5, 196.5)
Side play: Atlanta (-6) (Margin: 0.5)
Total Play: Over 195.5 (Margin: 1.0)
Sacramento 95.3 - Charlotte 100.5 (Expected Line: Charlotte -5.2, 195.8)
Side play: Sacramento (+6.5) (Margin: 1.3)
Total Play: Under 196.5 (Margin: 0.7)
Milwaukee 95.1 - Houston 100.2 (Expected Line: Houston -5.1, 195.3)
Side play: Milwaukee (+6.5) (Margin: 1.4)
Total Play: Under 197 (Margin: 1.7)
Philadelphia 102.4 - Minnesota 99.6 (Expected Line: Minnesota +2.8, 202.0)
Side play: Philadelphia (-1.5) (Margin: 1.3)
Total Play: Under 205.5 (Margin: 3.5)
San Antonio 100.6 - New Orleans 95.8 (Expected Line: New Orleans +4.8, 196.4)
Side play: San Antonio (+1) (Margin: 5.8)
Total Play: Over 190.5 (Margin: 5.9)
Chicago 104.1 - Golden State 106.6 (Expected Line: Golden State -2.5, 210.7)
Side play: Golden State (+1) (Margin: 3.5)
Total Play: Under 218 (Margin: 7.3)
Phoenix 112.6 - Memphis 111.7 (Expected Line: Memphis +0.9, 224.3)
Side play: Phoenix (+2) (Margin: 2.9)
Total Play: Under 225 (Margin: 0.7)
Orlando 96.6 - LA Lakers 101.6 (Expected Line: LA Lakers -5.0, 198.2)
Side play: Orlando (+6) (Margin: 1.0)
Total Play: Under 202 (Margin: 3.8)
Dallas 93.3 - Boston 100.4 (Expected Line: Boston -7.1, 193.7)
Side play: Boston (-5.5) (Margin: 1.6)
Total Play: Under 194 (Margin: 0.3)
New Jersey 86.2 - LA Clippers 99.4 (Expected Line: LA Clippers -13.2, 185.6)
Side play: LA Clippers (-8) (Margin: 5.2)
Total Play: Under 194.5 (Margin: 8.9)

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Plays:

Golden State (+2)
Chicago/Golden State (Under 218.5) (Now @ 216)
Phoenix (+2)
San Antonio (+1) *ADDED
San Antonio/New Orleans Over 190 *ADDED
LA Clippers (-8) *ADDED
New Jersey/LA Clippers Under 194.5 *ADDED

[Nick6570]

Hey busta, i feel like youve already said this and i appologize if you have
but what are your parameters for your "plays"??