Bucks host Mavericks in battle of hot teams on NBA TV
Monday, November 16, 2009
By: Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Milwaukee Bucks have won four in a row and look to keep the victory trend from being buck-ed by the visiting Dallas Mavericks on Monday night.
It will be the fourth home game in a row for Milwaukee where they have been undefeated this season and have also put up an increasing number of points on the board during all four home games. Meanwhile, Dallas is faced with their fourth straight road game and in the second night of a back to back after being victorious in Detroit yesterday against the Pistons.
This handicapper looks for the home dog Bucks to come through taking advantage of the situational spot and to get their fifth win at home by out-hustling the Mavericks on defense and the boards.
Although the Mavericks have had some explosive home wins this season, they have also put together a nice road record winning four out of their six games on the floor of the opposition. But the road may be starting to take its toll on Dallas as it took a second half comeback yesterday to beat the Pistons in Detroit 95-90. I feel the Mavericks lucked out with Detroit shooting only 2-for-13 from the three point line and Ben Gordon of the Pistons even missing a few free throws.
Dallas also did not get much production from the bench yesterday as all five starters scored in double figures, but even Jason Terry’s 29 minutes off the bench resulted in only Nine points and shooting only 1-for-7 from the field. The bench as a whole shot only 6 for 22 and this could hurt the Mavericks in a back-to-back spot like tonight where the starters may not be able to go the same kind of minutes as yesterday.
The Mavericks also benefited from fast break points yesterday as they outscored Detroit 14-6 there. This is another area that should be tougher in tonight’s spot as it would be surprising to see enough in the tank for Dallas to pull off fast break scoring without turnovers due to fatigue or lack of concentration.
Dallas only turned the ball over seven times against the Pistons yesterday and I feel that kind of success will also be tough to repeat. Look for the Milwaukee defense tonight to put more pressure on them than yesterday’s Pistons team who came in a little weary from playing in Washington the day before.
The Bucks defense has given up an average only 93 points a game this season which equals the Mavericks in being one of the NBA’s top ten teams in points allowed. This even includes some outliers in the average such as their last two games when the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets came to town and put up big numbers. But the Bucks still found ways to match that fire power and come out on top.
While I doubt we will see another 129 points on the board from Milwaukee which happened when beating Golden State on Saturday, the team has been hitting three pointers at a nice clip of 37% this season. Bucks center Andrew Bogut has also been one of the top shooters overall in the league connecting at 58% this season and it could be difficult for the Mavericks to contain him. Also, no one on Dallas can match that shooting percentage as you will not find any of their players even among the top 50 of the league for field goal percentage.
Rookie guard Brandon Jennings is also having a stellar season for the Bucks already as his 55 points on Saturday night got lots of attention in the Bucks victory. This brought his scoring average to over 25 points per game practically tying him with Dirk Nowitzki of the Mavericks this season in that department. He will face a more challenging defense against Dallas compared to Golden State but should also shake the Mavericks up a little with his fresh legs that could have him rolling just as big as Saturday once the second half hits tonight.
Bookmaker opened the spread for tonight’s game making the Mavericks road chalk by 1 ½ points. I feel the wrong side has been favored here and would have made the Bucks a slight favorite. Anytime you have a team who has not lost a game at home yet, it will take a pretty elite squad to come in and beat them.
The Mavericks on paper may have some more experienced talent than the Bucks, but this situation of a back to back spot at the end of a four game road trip which only began on Wednesday is not where I would want to be laying points. I will go with the younger squad here as the home underdog and look to cash in what could be an easier Bucks win than most people think.
Flip over to NBA TV for this tip before Monday Night Football kicks off. Take the Milwaukee Bucks to get your week started off with a winner instead of hoping the Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns cover.
More NBA action on Monday
Two other NBA matchups are on the board tonight making it only a three game card. The Portland Trail Blazers are visiting the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic host the Charlotte Bobcats.
Due to some injuries on the Magic, the line for their game against the Bobcats has not come out at press time yet. Forward Ryan Anderson is questionable and would make a difference in the margin of victory with his points and minutes should he play. Rashard Lewis is also expected to make his season debut for the Magic after serving his drug-related 10 game suspension to start the season.
Injuries or not, the Magic will likely be heavy chalk against Charlotte and it could make it a tough game in deciding on a side. The total would be where I concentrate on and I feel the 'under' would get my attention depending on how high the number is that comes out.
Charlotte has put up among the least amount of points this season in both the East and league as a whole. I would look for another low-scoring game similar to when the Magic faced the New Jersey Nets on Friday winning 88-72.
In Atlanta, it will be a clash of two hot teams as the Hawks have won six out of their last seven games and the Blazers have won seven of their last eight. The Hawks are home chalk here and were favored by 3 ½ points when the line came out at Bookmaker yesterday. Some early action before press time has already seen the line rise to 4 points and it could go higher as I agree with the early steam here.
While the Blazers have gone undefeated on their current road trip, the final stop in Atlanta will be the toughest of the journey and actually the only one where they have been made an underdog. Some gamblers may perceive it as getting some value with Portland, but I feel the line is a little too low here with the Blazers only getting a day of rest here. Statistically, the Blazers have had the top defense in the NBA giving up an average of only 87 points per game, but they have not faced the fire power of a team like the Hawks yet.
Atlanta has scored under 100 points in only three games this season and still pulled out victories in two of those matchups. When these two teams met two weeks ago in Portland, it was the Hawks coming out on top with a surprising road upset at the time. A 97-91 win by Atlanta that night was the second most points given up by the Blazers in a game this season and it will not get any easier for Portland in a spot like this for a road rematch.
I usually take revenge into account when teams have met each other recently but it may not mean as much here in an interconference battle and I will lay the points with the hometown Hawks.
Monday, November 16, 2009
By: Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Milwaukee Bucks have won four in a row and look to keep the victory trend from being buck-ed by the visiting Dallas Mavericks on Monday night.
It will be the fourth home game in a row for Milwaukee where they have been undefeated this season and have also put up an increasing number of points on the board during all four home games. Meanwhile, Dallas is faced with their fourth straight road game and in the second night of a back to back after being victorious in Detroit yesterday against the Pistons.
This handicapper looks for the home dog Bucks to come through taking advantage of the situational spot and to get their fifth win at home by out-hustling the Mavericks on defense and the boards.
Although the Mavericks have had some explosive home wins this season, they have also put together a nice road record winning four out of their six games on the floor of the opposition. But the road may be starting to take its toll on Dallas as it took a second half comeback yesterday to beat the Pistons in Detroit 95-90. I feel the Mavericks lucked out with Detroit shooting only 2-for-13 from the three point line and Ben Gordon of the Pistons even missing a few free throws.
Dallas also did not get much production from the bench yesterday as all five starters scored in double figures, but even Jason Terry’s 29 minutes off the bench resulted in only Nine points and shooting only 1-for-7 from the field. The bench as a whole shot only 6 for 22 and this could hurt the Mavericks in a back-to-back spot like tonight where the starters may not be able to go the same kind of minutes as yesterday.
The Mavericks also benefited from fast break points yesterday as they outscored Detroit 14-6 there. This is another area that should be tougher in tonight’s spot as it would be surprising to see enough in the tank for Dallas to pull off fast break scoring without turnovers due to fatigue or lack of concentration.
Dallas only turned the ball over seven times against the Pistons yesterday and I feel that kind of success will also be tough to repeat. Look for the Milwaukee defense tonight to put more pressure on them than yesterday’s Pistons team who came in a little weary from playing in Washington the day before.
The Bucks defense has given up an average only 93 points a game this season which equals the Mavericks in being one of the NBA’s top ten teams in points allowed. This even includes some outliers in the average such as their last two games when the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets came to town and put up big numbers. But the Bucks still found ways to match that fire power and come out on top.
While I doubt we will see another 129 points on the board from Milwaukee which happened when beating Golden State on Saturday, the team has been hitting three pointers at a nice clip of 37% this season. Bucks center Andrew Bogut has also been one of the top shooters overall in the league connecting at 58% this season and it could be difficult for the Mavericks to contain him. Also, no one on Dallas can match that shooting percentage as you will not find any of their players even among the top 50 of the league for field goal percentage.
Rookie guard Brandon Jennings is also having a stellar season for the Bucks already as his 55 points on Saturday night got lots of attention in the Bucks victory. This brought his scoring average to over 25 points per game practically tying him with Dirk Nowitzki of the Mavericks this season in that department. He will face a more challenging defense against Dallas compared to Golden State but should also shake the Mavericks up a little with his fresh legs that could have him rolling just as big as Saturday once the second half hits tonight.
Bookmaker opened the spread for tonight’s game making the Mavericks road chalk by 1 ½ points. I feel the wrong side has been favored here and would have made the Bucks a slight favorite. Anytime you have a team who has not lost a game at home yet, it will take a pretty elite squad to come in and beat them.
The Mavericks on paper may have some more experienced talent than the Bucks, but this situation of a back to back spot at the end of a four game road trip which only began on Wednesday is not where I would want to be laying points. I will go with the younger squad here as the home underdog and look to cash in what could be an easier Bucks win than most people think.
Flip over to NBA TV for this tip before Monday Night Football kicks off. Take the Milwaukee Bucks to get your week started off with a winner instead of hoping the Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns cover.
More NBA action on Monday
Two other NBA matchups are on the board tonight making it only a three game card. The Portland Trail Blazers are visiting the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic host the Charlotte Bobcats.
Due to some injuries on the Magic, the line for their game against the Bobcats has not come out at press time yet. Forward Ryan Anderson is questionable and would make a difference in the margin of victory with his points and minutes should he play. Rashard Lewis is also expected to make his season debut for the Magic after serving his drug-related 10 game suspension to start the season.
Injuries or not, the Magic will likely be heavy chalk against Charlotte and it could make it a tough game in deciding on a side. The total would be where I concentrate on and I feel the 'under' would get my attention depending on how high the number is that comes out.
Charlotte has put up among the least amount of points this season in both the East and league as a whole. I would look for another low-scoring game similar to when the Magic faced the New Jersey Nets on Friday winning 88-72.
In Atlanta, it will be a clash of two hot teams as the Hawks have won six out of their last seven games and the Blazers have won seven of their last eight. The Hawks are home chalk here and were favored by 3 ½ points when the line came out at Bookmaker yesterday. Some early action before press time has already seen the line rise to 4 points and it could go higher as I agree with the early steam here.
While the Blazers have gone undefeated on their current road trip, the final stop in Atlanta will be the toughest of the journey and actually the only one where they have been made an underdog. Some gamblers may perceive it as getting some value with Portland, but I feel the line is a little too low here with the Blazers only getting a day of rest here. Statistically, the Blazers have had the top defense in the NBA giving up an average of only 87 points per game, but they have not faced the fire power of a team like the Hawks yet.
Atlanta has scored under 100 points in only three games this season and still pulled out victories in two of those matchups. When these two teams met two weeks ago in Portland, it was the Hawks coming out on top with a surprising road upset at the time. A 97-91 win by Atlanta that night was the second most points given up by the Blazers in a game this season and it will not get any easier for Portland in a spot like this for a road rematch.
I usually take revenge into account when teams have met each other recently but it may not mean as much here in an interconference battle and I will lay the points with the hometown Hawks.