Dogs will turn it around for you, stick to your guns.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#143
1 play for the day. A small one for fun.
PARLAY: CHI ML / PHI +11 / UTA -9.5 / IND ML (+1829) - 0.5u to win 9.15u
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#144
Looking at the Bulls/Bucks 2H, the matchup is actually quite close. Both teams have been bad recently in the 2H, getting outscored by roughly the same margin in the 2H (-10pts in the 2H). I would not be surprised to see the Bulls take the 2H and for the 2H total to go over (95.5). No play on either though.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#145
Memphis is a bad 2H team, with a 2H differential of -9.5 pts on the road. I would probably take the UTA 2H -2.5
Comment
darkenergy
SBR MVP
01-08-09
4013
#146
I have the whole game UNDER.....just hope another 7 points' quarter from Memphis tonight
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#147
Originally posted by suicidekings
Looking at the Bulls/Bucks 2H, the matchup is actually quite close. Both teams have been bad recently in the 2H, getting outscored by roughly the same margin in the 2H (-10pts in the 2H). I would not be surprised to see the Bulls take the 2H and for the 2H total to go over (95.5). No play on either though.
Both predictions hit... wish I'd bet them...
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#148
Originally posted by darkenergy
I have the whole game UNDER.....just hope another 7 points' quarter from Memphis tonight
Sad thing is, it's not impossible. I wonder what the all-time lowest number of points scored in a quarter of an NBA game is... Is it possible that teams have been shut out in one?
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#149
12/1 Early Games
WAS +7 (-109) x2
WAS ML (+249)
CHR +4 (-114) x1.5 (bought last night, bought 0.5 pt)
No time for a writeup on these. Just got home...
No value in the 1Q/1H early lines today.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#150
Originally posted by suicidekings
I got that same Bobcats +10 (+100) for one unit. Not looking great now, but i really don't see how their current 28% shooting can continue for the entire game.
A little insurance added in the 2Q on live betting.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#151
DEN 1Q -4 (-121)
DEN 1H -8 (-112)
DEN -14.5 (-110) x1.5
Crappy prices on these, as I wasn't able to grab them when they came out... But it's hard not to feel great about Denver's chances tonight.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#152
MIA 1Q +2 (+105)
POR 1H -4 (+106)
Game available for live betting. Hoping for a fast start for Miami in the 1Q, leading to a better line on POR for the game. Portland has been starting slow recently, against two good 1Q teams (MEM & UTA).
Comment
HoulihansTX
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
02-12-09
30566
#153
Originally posted by suicidekings
MIA 1Q +2 (+105) POR 1H -4 (+106) Game available for live betting. Hoping for a fast start for Miami in the 1Q, leading to a better line on POR for the game. Portland has been starting slow recently, against two good 1Q teams (MEM & UTA).
LaMarcus Aldrige is OUT today.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#154
Originally posted by HoulihansTX
LaMarcus Aldrige is OUT today.
Hmm... That's unfortunate. I'm glad I held off on betting the full game early, but I think I still like the Blazers. I find the actual effect of a major player being out for a game is usually not as large as you'd think. Assuming the group has a good team dynamic (which the Blazers do), you usually see the extra effort from the other starters compensate for the missing player, at least early in the game. We'll see what happens.
Comment
HoulihansTX
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
02-12-09
30566
#155
I think they win any too. They are deep, and home were the Heat struggle. Cross country trip for the Heat, and this is their first game. Heat struggle to score on the road too, since the team is full of role players.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#156
Originally posted by suicidekings
DEN 1Q -4 (-121)
DEN 1H -8 (-112)
DEN -14.5 (-110) x1.5
Huge mis-step here on my part. GSW 8-1 in 1Qs when given +4 points... I got lazy, didn't check the stats, and paid for it. Here's hoping for 2/3...
DET GM+8 (-109) x2
DET GM ML (+322)
CLE 1Q -2 (-108) x2
MEM 1Q -1 (-105)
SAC 1H -0.5 (-107)
SAC GM -1.5 (-106)
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#166
ATL -9 (-105) x1.5
CLE -7.5 (-109)
Comment
lakerboy
SBR Aristocracy
04-02-09
94379
#167
Originally posted by SimonSayz
What is the purpose of a post like this?
Keep up the good work SK!
Listen man I support SK big time. I just think he bets too many outcomes. He values my opinion and vice versa. There is something called advice and constuctive criticism. He can say things to me and I wont get offended.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#168
Originally posted by lakerboy
Listen man I support SK big time. I just think he bets too many outcomes. He values my opinion and vice versa. There is something called advice and constuctive criticism. He can say things to me and I wont get offended.
Yeah man, no offense taken. I freely admit that I'm relatively new to the NBA, having only bet on it for just under a year. I'm here to learn, and as much as I appreciate the positive reinforcement from everyone when I succeed, that constructive criticism is much appreciated and necessary if I'm going to get any better. We disagree on certain elements, like the value of 1Q/1H betting, but in general, I think we're on the same page for most things. Trying to keep it professional rather than degenerate.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#169
Now in reference to your comment about playing too many games, this fall has been an experiment for me in the NBA. I didn't really set out a mission statement in the thread, but essentially my goal for the first two months of the season was to try as many different approaches as possible, letting them develop/evolve through trial and error. Every time I have an idea for a new angle, I build myself a stats model that does the job and play around with it for a bit, so now I have about 10 models on the go (all are automated). I'm keeping intensive records of my progress and the performance of the different approaches so that come January, I'll have narrowed it down to the most effective strategies that work for me.
Because of this, playing more games now is more useful to me than limiting it to less games. My current unit size is about 1/3 of normal to accommodate playing more games on a daily basis. Doing it just on paper wouldn't have had the same results (you have to have something riding on the line to make it real). At my current pace, I should have around 500 NBA wagers under my belt by Jan 1, and I feel that will be enough to draw conclusions about the different approaches. At that point, I will be cutting down to playing less wagers and increasing the bet size accordingly.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#170
PHI +7 (-114) x2
PHI ML (+228)
I would normally have waited on these lines to get better closer to game time, but I'm going out soon and may not be back in time for tipoff.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#171
12/2 Full Card
DET GM+8 (-109) x2
DET GM ML (+322)
PHI +7 (-114) x2
PHI ML (+228)
SAC GM -1.5 (-106)
ATL -9 (-105) x1.5
CLE -7.5 (-109)
DET @ CHI
- Too many points, straight up. After ATS losses to PHX, CLE, LAC, I feel like the Pistons turned the corner with the Atlanta game. They did catch the Hawks at a low point, but I still feel like they played them tough and ground out the win. CHI is tough at home, but I think DET can make this a close game, and possibly win it SU.
PHI @ OKC
- In November, 10 out of PHI's 15 games ended within a MOV of 6 points. Their current 7 game losing streak is not indicative of their improvement over that time. Eventually, that improvement is going to start translating into wins. OKC is in the middle of a homestand, coming off a SU loss and have the Celtics coming to town on Friday. I like Philly in this spot.
PHX @ CLE
- CLE 1Q autobet. The Cavs are a great 1Q team, and the Suns are a bad one. I like the Cavs to win the game ATS, but i'm more confident in the 1Q bet.
No more time. Good luck tonight guys.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#172
2H Parlay:
DET +1 / Min +4.5 (+243)
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#173
Added Live
LAC +3.5 (-108)
Over 199.5 (-108) Shit line, but I still like it.
I had been waiting on this to do live, trying to do better than the +2 available before the game.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#174
Originally posted by suicidekings
12/2 Full Card
DET GM+8 (-109) x2 WIN
DET GM ML (+322) LOSE
PHI +7 (-114) x2 LOSE
PHI ML (+228) LOSE
SAC GM -1.5 (-106) WIN
ATL -9 (-105) x1.5 WIN
CLE -7.5 (-109) WIN
HOU is actually 8-1 in 2Hs on the road (+6pts), while LAC is 3-7 in 2Hs at home (-2.7pts) on the season, however in the last 10 days, HOU has been much worse in 2Hs (-2.0pts), while the Clippers have been better (+6.3pts). Kind of a tossup....