suicidekings NBA 2009

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  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #141
    11/29: 6-8-1 (-2.28u)
    YTD: 105-107-3 (49.53%) (+1.90u)
    FAVES: 88-70-3 (55.70%) (+13.08u)
    DOGS: 17-37-0 (31.48%) (-11.18u)
    Comment
    • shoebox
      Restricted User
      • 11-26-08
      • 5710

      #142
      Dogs will turn it around for you, stick to your guns.
      Comment
      • suicidekings
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-23-09
        • 9962

        #143
        1 play for the day. A small one for fun.

        PARLAY: CHI ML / PHI +11 / UTA -9.5 / IND ML (+1829) - 0.5u to win 9.15u
        Comment
        • suicidekings
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-23-09
          • 9962

          #144
          Looking at the Bulls/Bucks 2H, the matchup is actually quite close. Both teams have been bad recently in the 2H, getting outscored by roughly the same margin in the 2H (-10pts in the 2H). I would not be surprised to see the Bulls take the 2H and for the 2H total to go over (95.5). No play on either though.
          Comment
          • suicidekings
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-23-09
            • 9962

            #145
            Memphis is a bad 2H team, with a 2H differential of -9.5 pts on the road. I would probably take the UTA 2H -2.5
            Comment
            • darkenergy
              SBR MVP
              • 01-08-09
              • 4013

              #146
              I have the whole game UNDER.....just hope another 7 points' quarter from Memphis tonight
              Comment
              • suicidekings
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-23-09
                • 9962

                #147
                Originally posted by suicidekings
                Looking at the Bulls/Bucks 2H, the matchup is actually quite close. Both teams have been bad recently in the 2H, getting outscored by roughly the same margin in the 2H (-10pts in the 2H). I would not be surprised to see the Bulls take the 2H and for the 2H total to go over (95.5). No play on either though.
                Both predictions hit... wish I'd bet them...
                Comment
                • suicidekings
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-23-09
                  • 9962

                  #148
                  Originally posted by darkenergy
                  I have the whole game UNDER.....just hope another 7 points' quarter from Memphis tonight
                  Sad thing is, it's not impossible. I wonder what the all-time lowest number of points scored in a quarter of an NBA game is... Is it possible that teams have been shut out in one?
                  Comment
                  • suicidekings
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-23-09
                    • 9962

                    #149
                    12/1 Early Games

                    WAS +7 (-109) x2
                    WAS ML (+249)
                    CHR +4 (-114) x1.5
                    (bought last night, bought 0.5 pt)

                    No time for a writeup on these. Just got home...

                    No value in the 1Q/1H early lines today.
                    Comment
                    • suicidekings
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-23-09
                      • 9962

                      #150
                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                      I got that same Bobcats +10 (+100) for one unit. Not looking great now, but i really don't see how their current 28% shooting can continue for the entire game.
                      A little insurance added in the 2Q on live betting.
                      Comment
                      • suicidekings
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-23-09
                        • 9962

                        #151
                        DEN 1Q -4 (-121)
                        DEN 1H -8 (-112)
                        DEN -14.5 (-110) x1.5

                        Crappy prices on these, as I wasn't able to grab them when they came out... But it's hard not to feel great about Denver's chances tonight.
                        Comment
                        • suicidekings
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 03-23-09
                          • 9962

                          #152
                          MIA 1Q +2 (+105)
                          POR 1H -4 (+106)


                          Game available for live betting. Hoping for a fast start for Miami in the 1Q, leading to a better line on POR for the game. Portland has been starting slow recently, against two good 1Q teams (MEM & UTA).
                          Comment
                          • HoulihansTX
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 02-12-09
                            • 30566

                            #153
                            Originally posted by suicidekings
                            MIA 1Q +2 (+105) POR 1H -4 (+106) Game available for live betting. Hoping for a fast start for Miami in the 1Q, leading to a better line on POR for the game. Portland has been starting slow recently, against two good 1Q teams (MEM & UTA).
                            LaMarcus Aldrige is OUT today.
                            Comment
                            • suicidekings
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-23-09
                              • 9962

                              #154
                              Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                              LaMarcus Aldrige is OUT today.
                              Hmm... That's unfortunate. I'm glad I held off on betting the full game early, but I think I still like the Blazers. I find the actual effect of a major player being out for a game is usually not as large as you'd think. Assuming the group has a good team dynamic (which the Blazers do), you usually see the extra effort from the other starters compensate for the missing player, at least early in the game. We'll see what happens.
                              Comment
                              • HoulihansTX
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 02-12-09
                                • 30566

                                #155
                                I think they win any too. They are deep, and home were the Heat struggle. Cross country trip for the Heat, and this is their first game. Heat struggle to score on the road too, since the team is full of role players.
                                Comment
                                • suicidekings
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-23-09
                                  • 9962

                                  #156
                                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                                  DEN 1Q -4 (-121)
                                  DEN 1H -8 (-112)
                                  DEN -14.5 (-110) x1.5
                                  Huge mis-step here on my part. GSW 8-1 in 1Qs when given +4 points... I got lazy, didn't check the stats, and paid for it. Here's hoping for 2/3...
                                  Comment
                                  • suicidekings
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-23-09
                                    • 9962

                                    #157
                                    First TV timeout:

                                    POR GM -3 (-108)
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962

                                      #158
                                      MIA/POR 2H Over 92.5 (-102)
                                      Comment
                                      • suicidekings
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-23-09
                                        • 9962

                                        #159
                                        12/1 Results

                                        12/1: 6-5-0 (+3.04u)
                                        YTD: 111-112-3 (49.78%) (+4.94u)
                                        Comment
                                        • lakerboy
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-02-09
                                          • 94379

                                          #160
                                          You bet too many outcomes
                                          Comment
                                          • suicidekings
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 03-23-09
                                            • 9962

                                            #161
                                            Charlotte vs Boston was a mistake, and the numbers were against me on the DEN 1Q, but I'm content with the other choices I made tonight.
                                            Comment
                                            • alittlemoresound
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 12-14-08
                                              • 472

                                              #162
                                              OK CITY THUNDER tomorrow....don't miss out
                                              Comment
                                              • suicidekings
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-23-09
                                                • 9962

                                                #163
                                                2009 NBA SEASON STATS

                                                TOTAL WAGERS: 226
                                                BET TYPE: W-L-P (W%) (NET GAIN/LOSS IN UNITS)

                                                FULL GAME: 37-46-1 (44%) (-4.81u)
                                                1Q: 37-26-0 (58.7%) (+12.89u)
                                                1H: 22-14-1 (59.5%) (+7.23u)
                                                2H: 10-16-1 (37%) (-11.83u)
                                                _________________________________

                                                SPREAD: 74-29-2 (51%) (-4.46u)
                                                MONEYLINE: 11-18-0 (37.9%) (+0.44u)
                                                OVER/UNDER: 20-15-1 (55.6%) (+6.01u)
                                                PARLAYS: 3-6-0 (40%) (+5.53u)
                                                _________________________________

                                                COMBINED 1Q & 1H: 59-40-1 (59%) (+20.12u)
                                                Comment
                                                • SimonSayz
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 10-17-09
                                                  • 859

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                  You bet too many outcomes
                                                  What is the purpose of a post like this?

                                                  Keep up the good work SK!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • suicidekings
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 03-23-09
                                                    • 9962

                                                    #165
                                                    12/2 Plays

                                                    DET GM+8 (-109) x2
                                                    DET GM ML (+322)
                                                    CLE 1Q -2 (-108) x2
                                                    MEM 1Q -1 (-105)
                                                    SAC 1H -0.5 (-107)
                                                    SAC GM -1.5 (-106)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • suicidekings
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                      • 9962

                                                      #166
                                                      ATL -9 (-105) x1.5
                                                      CLE -7.5 (-109)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • lakerboy
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 04-02-09
                                                        • 94379

                                                        #167
                                                        Originally posted by SimonSayz
                                                        What is the purpose of a post like this?

                                                        Keep up the good work SK!

                                                        Listen man I support SK big time. I just think he bets too many outcomes. He values my opinion and vice versa. There is something called advice and constuctive criticism. He can say things to me and I wont get offended.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • suicidekings
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-23-09
                                                          • 9962

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                          Listen man I support SK big time. I just think he bets too many outcomes. He values my opinion and vice versa. There is something called advice and constuctive criticism. He can say things to me and I wont get offended.
                                                          Yeah man, no offense taken. I freely admit that I'm relatively new to the NBA, having only bet on it for just under a year. I'm here to learn, and as much as I appreciate the positive reinforcement from everyone when I succeed, that constructive criticism is much appreciated and necessary if I'm going to get any better. We disagree on certain elements, like the value of 1Q/1H betting, but in general, I think we're on the same page for most things. Trying to keep it professional rather than degenerate.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • suicidekings
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-23-09
                                                            • 9962

                                                            #169
                                                            Now in reference to your comment about playing too many games, this fall has been an experiment for me in the NBA. I didn't really set out a mission statement in the thread, but essentially my goal for the first two months of the season was to try as many different approaches as possible, letting them develop/evolve through trial and error. Every time I have an idea for a new angle, I build myself a stats model that does the job and play around with it for a bit, so now I have about 10 models on the go (all are automated). I'm keeping intensive records of my progress and the performance of the different approaches so that come January, I'll have narrowed it down to the most effective strategies that work for me.

                                                            Because of this, playing more games now is more useful to me than limiting it to less games. My current unit size is about 1/3 of normal to accommodate playing more games on a daily basis. Doing it just on paper wouldn't have had the same results (you have to have something riding on the line to make it real). At my current pace, I should have around 500 NBA wagers under my belt by Jan 1, and I feel that will be enough to draw conclusions about the different approaches. At that point, I will be cutting down to playing less wagers and increasing the bet size accordingly.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • suicidekings
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                              • 9962

                                                              #170
                                                              PHI +7 (-114) x2
                                                              PHI ML (+228)

                                                              I would normally have waited on these lines to get better closer to game time, but I'm going out soon and may not be back in time for tipoff.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • suicidekings
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 03-23-09
                                                                • 9962

                                                                #171
                                                                12/2 Full Card

                                                                DET GM+8 (-109) x2
                                                                DET GM ML (+322)
                                                                PHI +7 (-114) x2
                                                                PHI ML (+228)
                                                                SAC GM -1.5 (-106)
                                                                ATL -9 (-105) x1.5
                                                                CLE -7.5 (-109)

                                                                CLE 1Q -2 (-108) x2
                                                                MEM 1Q -1 (-105)
                                                                SAC 1H -0.5 (-107)

                                                                _____________________________

                                                                DET @ CHI
                                                                - Too many points, straight up. After ATS losses to PHX, CLE, LAC, I feel like the Pistons turned the corner with the Atlanta game. They did catch the Hawks at a low point, but I still feel like they played them tough and ground out the win. CHI is tough at home, but I think DET can make this a close game, and possibly win it SU.

                                                                PHI @ OKC
                                                                - In November, 10 out of PHI's 15 games ended within a MOV of 6 points. Their current 7 game losing streak is not indicative of their improvement over that time. Eventually, that improvement is going to start translating into wins. OKC is in the middle of a homestand, coming off a SU loss and have the Celtics coming to town on Friday. I like Philly in this spot.

                                                                PHX @ CLE
                                                                - CLE 1Q autobet. The Cavs are a great 1Q team, and the Suns are a bad one. I like the Cavs to win the game ATS, but i'm more confident in the 1Q bet.

                                                                No more time. Good luck tonight guys.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                  • 9962

                                                                  #172
                                                                  2H Parlay:

                                                                  DET +1 / Min +4.5 (+243)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • suicidekings
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 03-23-09
                                                                    • 9962

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Added Live

                                                                    LAC +3.5 (-108)
                                                                    Over 199.5 (-108) Shit line, but I still like it.

                                                                    I had been waiting on this to do live, trying to do better than the +2 available before the game.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                      • 9962

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                      12/2 Full Card

                                                                      DET GM+8 (-109) x2 WIN
                                                                      DET GM ML (+322) LOSE
                                                                      PHI +7 (-114) x2 LOSE
                                                                      PHI ML (+228) LOSE
                                                                      SAC GM -1.5 (-106) WIN
                                                                      ATL -9 (-105) x1.5 WIN
                                                                      CLE -7.5 (-109) WIN

                                                                      CLE 1Q -2 (-108) x2 WIN
                                                                      MEM 1Q -1 (-105) LOSE
                                                                      SAC 1H -0.5 (-107)WIN

                                                                      DET +1 / Min +4.5 (+243) LOSE
                                                                      LAC +3.5 (-108) LOSE
                                                                      LAC/HOU Over 199.5 (-108) LOSE
                                                                      12/2: 6-7-0 (-0.01u)
                                                                      YTD: 117-119-3 (49.58%) (+4.93u)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • suicidekings
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 03-23-09
                                                                        • 9962

                                                                        #175
                                                                        HOU is actually 8-1 in 2Hs on the road (+6pts), while LAC is 3-7 in 2Hs at home (-2.7pts) on the season, however in the last 10 days, HOU has been much worse in 2Hs (-2.0pts), while the Clippers have been better (+6.3pts). Kind of a tossup....
                                                                        Comment
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