suicidekings NBA 2009

[suicidekings]

Rather than make new threads daily, I'm just going to start up a season thread. I'll post my plays in here when I have time, and hopefully not see my winning percentage drop. I've been focusing more and more on 1Q & 1H plays recently and I've been much more successful with them than in playing full games.

All plays are at Pinnacle and are for 1 unit, unless otherwise specified.

Wednesday, Nov 11

ATL 1Q -1.5 (-105) Knicks are the worst 1Q team in the NBA, losing 1Qs by an average of 9.1pts
UTA 1Q +3.5 (-105) Utah is the best 1Q team, winning 1Qs by an average of 6.3pts.
POR 1Q -2.5 (-105)
ORL 1Q PK (-110) Orlando matches up well with the Cavs, and have been a very strong 1Q team. Pretty much an AutoBet for me.

MIL 1H ML (+120) One of the best 1H point differentials, due in large part to their crippling defense (ranked #1), allowing an average of 38.8 points in the 1H.
DEN/MIL 1H Under 98 (-110) See above
ORL 1H PK (-110) Very strong 1H this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6pts.

Lots of strong 1H / weak 2H teams facing weak 1H / strong 2H teams today... There will be a lot of good opportunities for the 2H.

Good luck.

[suicidekings]

Added:

DEN/MIL Under 198 (-104)

So far this year, the Under is 5-0 in Bucks games and 4-2 in Denver road games.

[suicidekings]

det 1Q -1.5 (-105)

[suicidekings]

ATL 1Q -1.5 (-105) LOSE
UTA 1Q +3.5 (-105) LOSE
POR 1Q -2.5 (-105) LOSE
ORL 1Q PK (-110) LOSE
det 1Q -1.5 (-105) LOSE
ORL 1H PK (-110) LOSE
MIL 1H ML (+120) WIN
DEN/MIL 1H Under 98 (-110) LOSE
DEN/MIL Under 198 (-104) LOSE
DAL 2H -4 (-115) PUSH

Today: 1-8-1 (-7.34u)
YTD: 35-36-1 (49.3%) (+2.57u)

Brutal day, that definitely reinstated my faith in playing the full games rather than just the 1Q plays... On to tomorrow.

[suicidekings]

Tough plays to call tonight. I had something written about each game, but definitely just erased it by accident. Here's the short version.

I'm only making two plays today:

Teaser (5.5 pt side, 7pt total) (+160) 2 to win 3.2
- Cavs/Heat OVER 173
- Suns +13
- Lakers/Suns Over 213.5

Cavs/Heat OVER 179.5 (-110)


Heat/Cavs

When good defensive teams meet up, I feel the O/U is typically set lower than it should be. It makes sense when one of the teams is weaker on offense, however I find when teams that are both strong defensively, but possess strong offensive weapons as well, the Over becomes a stronger play. There's nothing about this matchup that makes me believe either team's defense will shut down the other team. Both have something to prove, having faced largely weaker teams so far this year.

To beat a strong defensive team, you can't allow them to set the tempo of the game. You need to be aggressive. I'm hoping for a strong start and a possible middle on the total.


Suns/Lakers

The Suns have won games this year by pushing the pace, and never letting up. They won't be able to manhandle the Lakers like they have other teams, but I don't expect them to be held to less than 100 points. They'll push the Lakers into foul trouble early by being aggressive and the Lakers will respond in kind. The Lakers have a tendency to play to the level of their opponents, but are often saddled with large spreads, which is what makes them a bad ATS team. The might cover 7.5, but it will require them to shut down the Suns more effectively than anyone else has this year.

I think the Lakers will win it, but I can't bet against the Suns covering. They're just too good in the 2H, with their bench being a huge reason for it. Even when they give up points, they continue to produce themselves, not allowing opposing teams to get back in the game.

[suicidekings]

Adding:

Suns ML +289, just for fun.

[suicidekings]

Mostly correct in my analysis of the games yesterday, but the PHX +13 ruined my teaser, resulting in a losing day.

Friday the 13th is made for upsets (I hope).

Knicks -4 (-104)
Clippers -1 (+115)
Hornets ML (+132)
Hornets +3 (-102)

Actually not that many standout lines today. Most of them are pretty tight. I like the big dogs today to cover though. Minnesota in particular.

[Dexter]

whats up buddy - good to see you back

[suicidekings]

whats up buddy - good to see you back

Thanks man. Work became too busy in the summer and I found myself not having enough time to put into capping, plus I suck at baseball... Stoked for NBA though.

[suicidekings]

Rough couple of days, returning to action on Monday. All picks posted prior to game time in the SBR spreadsheet.

Today, there's not a lot of games I love, but a few I like.

1) MIA O179.5 (-110), 1.5u
2) MIA 1H O92.5 (+100), 1u
3) 6 team Parlay just for fun (+5100), 0.5u
CLE U216, LAC O194, PHX+3, DET+9.5, SAC+2.5, IND-4

YTD: 38-44-1 (44.34%) (-3.51u)

[suicidekings]

Posted in another thread, copied over. Thoughts on the OKC/MIA game.

The Total
I originally capped this game at 185.5, buying it at 179.5 last night before the huge jump this morning. In my opinion, most of the value is gone from this pick now that the market has adjusted and it would be a no play for me at 185.5. However, the 1H line is sitting at Over 92.5 (+100) at Pinnacle right now, and that looks pretty good to me (I have it capped at 95.5). OKC tends to give up more points in the first half, particularly on the road.

This game is another example of a meeting between two good defensive teams with big offensive weapons (Wade & Durant). These games tend to be played at a faster pace early on, as both are trying to gain the advantage in the first half before allowing defense to dominate in the second half.

The Spread
As for the side, I capped it as an -1.5 edge for Miami. I feel like this game will see Miami ahead at the half with the Thunder clawing their way back to cover for the game. I like the Thunder +6.5 pick, but will be waiting until game time for the play, hoping for some Miami money to produce a +7 for OKC.

Plays so far:
1) OKC/MIA Over 179.5 (-110), 1.5u
2) OKC/MIA 1H Over 92.5 (+100), 1u

If you want to take advantage of the total, I would think about teasing the game (5pt side / 7pt total) as OKC +11.5 / Over 178.5.

[suicidekings]

Pacers ML (-159)
Thunder +7 (-111)

[suicidekings]

GS/CLE 2H Under 107 (-105)

[suicidekings]

SAC 1H +1 (-106), 2u

[suicidekings]

Sac ml (+122)

[suicidekings]

11/17: 4-4-0, -0.12u Sacramento spoiled what would have otherwise been an nice day.

Sitting at YTD: 42-48-1, -3.27u

[suicidekings]

Wednesday, Nov 18th

At first glance, the game that sticks out to me the most is the total in the NYK/IND game. I have it capped at 200.5. So far this year, the Knicks average closing O/U and final scores have been 208 & 203.6 respectively, while the Pacers O/U & final scores have averaged 207 & 197.9. 215 is way too high.

Otherwise, leaning towards:

Grizzlies: With a few days off, Iverson gone from the picture, and hosting the Clippers, the Grizz are in a great spot to pick up the win.

Jazz: Toronto in their last game of a 4 game trip, and Utah playing at home on 3 days rest. I see a blowout.

Heat: Wade put up some points later in the game tonight, but did not shoot well at all for most of the game. As great as Atlanta has been at home, -8 is too many points to give up.

Cavs: The Cavs have played better on the road this year, and won't be messing around in WAS.

[landers781]

Did you stop doing the 1st qs? They seemed to be working out pretty well besides that one day

[djiddish98]

Totally agree on that Pacers / Knicks game - I have it at a total of 197. It's even going up, now at 218. Either there's something Vegas knows, or there's a lot of dumb New York money on this one.

[suicidekings]

Did you stop doing the 1st qs? They seemed to be working out pretty well besides that one day

Took a break from it, after that one brutal day. The last couple of days I've been looking, but not liking the lines i saw. Earlier in the season there were some that were WAY off, giving the team I thought should be favoured +2 or +3. They tightened up.

[suicidekings]

11/18 Booked Plays

NYK/IND Under 215 (-116) - IMO, this line is way off, for the reasons stated above. I can't explain the line movement in the other direction, but I'm still very confident in the play.

CLE 1Q -1 (-110) - Cavs are the 2nd best road 1Q team (1st overall), while the Wiz are the 5th worst home 1Q team (15th overall). Even without Varejao and Shaq, I feel good about the Cavs 1Q.

MIA 1Q ML (+140) - When Wade has a bad night (like he did on 11/17), he typically responds strong in the next game. Miami got outplayed last night and need a strong performance tonight. To me, that translates to a strong 1Q effort from the Heat, knowing that they're up against a very tough opponent, even if the Hawks take the game. This is a situational play that's not really supported by stats.

IND 1Q -2 (+100) - Another situational play. The Pacers are a streaky team, and with Hibbert/Granger/Jones all playing well last night, they'll be looking for that fast start again tonight vs the Knicks, who are by far the worst 1Q team in the league and are playing their first game in a long road trip.

[darkenergy]

I like everything except Mia 1q. Booked UNDER NY/Ind, going to tail you Indi and Cavs 1q. I'll take Atlanta (will book before tipoff) for whole game, so technically I can root for you 1q......BUT 1Q only
GL tonight SK

[suicidekings]

I like everything except Mia 1q. Booked UNDER NY/Ind, going to tail you Indi and Cavs 1q. I'll take Atlanta (will book before tipoff) for whole game, so technically I can root for you 1q......BUT 1Q only
GL tonight SK

I think you're definitely on the right side of the ATL/MIA game. I think tonight will see the Hawks knock the Heat around overall, but Wade will have a good night.

Whatever the score after the 1H, I'll be looking at an ATL 2H play, if the line isn't too steep. Good luck to you as well.

[suicidekings]

Second Half play to watch out for:

OKC/ORL
OKC: 7-2-2 in second halves so far this year, averaging 5pts more than opponents in the 2H.
ORL: 5-6-0 in 2H, including the last meeting, where OKC outscored ORL by 19 in the 2H

I would expect OKC to be down at the half, so if your book offers 2H MLs, it might be a good opportunity.

[suicidekings]

Adding a small parlay: PHI ML / Over 183 (+221)

I capped this game as PHI -7.5 and 189. Despite the RLM, I like it enough to see what happens.

[suicidekings]

1-2 on 1Qs so far.

Adding:

Nets 1Q +3 (-101)
Nets 1Q ML (+197)
HOU 1Q -1.5 (-118)

[suicidekings]

2H plays

CLE +0.5 (-112)
IND +2.5 (-114)

[suicidekings]

Uta 1q -2.5 (+104)
det 1q +3.5 (-102)
mil 2h -8.5 (-113)

[suicidekings]

DAL 2H -1.5 (-107)

Late due to crashing internet...

[suicidekings]

DAL 2H -1.5 (-107)

Late due to crashing internet...

[suicidekings]

Tonight: 7-7-0, +0.76u
YTD: 49-55-1, -2.51u

Lessons learned:
1) Don't bet against the Knicks in the 2H if they're down at the half. (Knicks are 5-1-1 in second halves when trailing at the half).

2) Playing the Jazz at home in the 1Q is like getting smacked down by the hand of God (Jazz are 5-0 in 1Q at home, averaging 8.5pts more than opponents).

3) Milwaukee is a second half monster. In games when they're down at the half, they are 5-0 in second halves, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4pts.

4) Oklahoma City is 8-2-2 in second halves, outscoring opponents by an average of 5pts.

5) Dallas is 8-3 in Second Halves this year

6) Cleveland is 10-2 in 1Qs this year, outscoring opponents by 4.7pts in 1Q overall, and by 7.5 points in 1Q wins.

7) Orlando is 9-3 in 1Qs, outscoring opponents by 4.5 overall and by 7.8pts in 1Q wins

[suicidekings]

November 19 Plays

UTA @ SAN
UTA 1Q +1.5 (-110) - Already booked and it will count towards my record, but I think it will lose.
SAN 1H -2.5 (-102) x2 - San Antonio 4-0-1 in 1Hs at home this year, with an average MOV of 11.2pts

PHX @ NOH
NOH 1Q +2.5 (-103) - NOH home 1Q avg MOV = +2.6pts, phx road 1Q avg MOV = -4.4pts
NOH 1Q ML (+166)

CHI @ LAL
LAL 1Q -3 (-112) - Lakers 7-1 in 1Qs at home this year, winning by an average of 4.5pts
LAL 1H -5 (-120) x2 - Lakers are 5-1-2 in 1Hs at home this year, with an avg MOV of 6.3pts

[suicidekings]

The above plays are a product of my newest Excel creation that can isolate road/home scoring for 1Q/1H/2H at any spread for all teams and spit out the team's record ATS. The lines for 1Q/1H/2H are projected, as I don't have the actual records available. The spreadsheet just spits out data, it doesn't make/grade selections and I have no intention of trying to develop a "system" from it. It's just a tool.

ie: for the Lakers game, that 5-1-2 record is how they would have performed this year in their home games at the -5.5 1H spread which is available for today's game. The MOV listed is for all Laker home games, not just the wins.

[landers781]

Hey man, thanks for copying those stats in my thread, i am sure they might help me pick some winners. Very interested in your model you do with excel. Good luck on the rest of your plays

[suicidekings]

November 19 Plays

UTA 1Q +1.5 (-110) WIN
SAN 1H -2.5 (-102) x2 LOSE

NOH 1Q +2.5 (-103) WIN
NOH 1Q ML (+166) WIN

LAL 1Q -3 (-112) WIN
LAL 1H -5 (-120) x2 WIN

11/19: 5-1-0 (+4.62u)