Adding 4 team parlay
Parlay (+1158)
- Suns -9
- Thunder -5
- Nuggets -12.5
- Cavs -5.5
Parlay (+1158)
- Suns -9
- Thunder -5
- Nuggets -12.5
- Cavs -5.5
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Comment -
Wow... Frustrating night. The PHX/MIN U215 pushing took the sting off a bit, but losing the MIL/OKC Under by half a point in the way it happened sucked... so bad. Literally one less point in each game and I'd be sitting on a neutral night instead of a bad one. But these things happen.
The only other thing that happened was Memphis winning outright tonight, after I backed them on the big ML twice before. I knew it would happen eventually, but didn't expect it in Portland. Touche Grizzlies...
11/27: 3-7-1 (27.3%) (-6.77u)
NBA 2009: 96-94-2 (50.53%) (+7.07u)Comment -
11/28
More to come, but just a small parlay on the first game.
CHR +3.5 / Over 190.5 (+282) 0.5u to win 1.41
Late posting due to poor internet... my apologies.Comment -
11/28
DAL/CLE 1Q OVER 49 (-118)
DAL/CLE 1H OVER 99 (-101)
PARLAY: CLE ML / OVER 194 (+164)
I feel like the Cavs win this game, but I feel stronger about the total. DAL has proven themselves offensively this year, even on short rest and on the road. This game could easily be decided in the last few minutes and I can't go against Dirk & crew in this situation.Comment -
POR +5 (-111) x2.5
PARLAY: POR ML / Under 189.5 (+395) x1.5Comment -
And F*ck Pinnacle today... Quarters and Live are completely down, and the rest is in and out...Comment -
Hey suicide you from canada buddy? Where you from ?Comment -
Yeah, Canada. Vancouver, specifically.Comment -
POR/UTA - 2H UNDER 95 (-115)
POR 2H -1.5 (-111)
Sticking to the plan, despite mixed results in the last couple of days.Comment -
11/28: 3-5 (-3.28u)
YTD: 99-99-2 (+4.18u)Comment -
11/29:
NBA
TOR ML (+113)
MEM +3 (-103)
HOU ML (+120)
PHI/SAN - OVER 194 (-112)
TOR 1Q (Not available yet)
TOR 1H (Not available yet)
MEM 1Q (Not available yet)
ORL 1Q (Not available yet)
NFL
MIA -3 (-119)
I really don't think Buffalo can stop the Wildcat. Miami has won 3 of their last 4 games and are playing with confidence right now. They also know that the AFC East-leading NE is facing a very tough challenge this week in NO, and that they need this game to make any run at a playoff berth.
IND/HOU - UNDER 48 (-114)
These teams are actually fairly similar stats-wise, with Indy having an edge in passing and HOU with a slight rushing edge. I think this will be a very tight game, ruled by defense and I like this under a lot.
Soccer
2 Team Parlay (+289)
- Everton/Liverpool - OVER 2.5
- Arsenal/Chelsea - OVER 2.5Comment -
PHI/SAN Over 194
The Average Closing O/U & Final Score in each game:
PHI (on the road): Avg Closing O/U: 193.5, Avg Final Score: 199
SAN (at home): Avg Closing O/U: 196.5, Avg Final Score: 204.5
If you look at the O/U and scores without differentiating home and away, this total looks like it's right on, but the Over is 6-3 for the Spurs at home, and Philly tends to stay under at home and be about even on the road. This line is way too low for this matchup. I will likely put more on it if my early bets go well.
TOR 1Q, 1H & GM
I feel really strong about this matchup.
1Q: TOR is 5-3 in 1Qs at home on a +0.5 spread, and 6-2 in 1Hs for a +1 spread. PHX is 1-9 for both 1Q & 1H on the road at the spreads listed. I feel like TOR will be leading at the half and then it will be a bit of a tossup in the second half.
MEM 1Q, 1H & GM
Memphis is a very good 1Q/1H team. With a spread of +1 in the 1Q, and for a +2 for the 1H, Memphis is 7-2 for both. Their point differentials 1Q & 1H are +4.9 and +0.9.
LAC is average, going 4-5 for both 1Q & 1H at home on a 1Q-1 & 1H-2 spread. Both teams are poor second half teams, but I feel like Memphis is playing with more confidence right now, and are a better team overall.Comment -
TOR +2.5 (-107)
TOR 1q +0.5 (+100)
TOR 1h +1 (-105)
MEM 1q +1 (-105)
MEM 1h +2 (-110)
DET 1h +4 (-107)
DET is 6-1 (+2.3 pts) in 1Hs at home with a +4 spread. Atlanta is 1-7 on a -4 1H spread on the road (-3.6pts).Comment -
Hello, I have never posted but have been watching this thread for a few weeks. Suicide I like the stats you have been throwing up they have been a great help. Can I ask your opinion of the lakers 1H -8 1/2 and 14 1/2 for the game? it seems a little high to me but they are playing NJ who has not won a game. I'm just not sure if they played to hard last night against GSW. Thanks for any input.Comment -
The Lakers coasted through the game last night for the most part. Golden State never really got close.
Honestly, I avoid big chalk as much as possible, and very rarely play a game with this big of a spread. My game is the small stuff like quarters and halves, taking advantage of 1Q and 1H trends that diverge from full game trends. I like them because there's typically a lot less that can go wrong in 12 minutes than in 48.
The Lakers definitely have the capacity to win the 1Q/1H and the game ATS. This year they would be 7-4 for both the 1Q -4.5 and 1H -8.5, and 5-6 ATS for the game at a -14.5 spread at home (against tougher opponents than the Nets) with an average differential for the game of about +8.7 pts in all home games, and 13.3 pts in wins. I think in the previous seasons the Lakers have been lazy in games at the end, letting opponents back in for the backdoor cover, but having watched the last few games, I really like their team chemistry right now. It's very unselfish and this team seems to have a stronger work ethic than past Laker teams. The guys are playing so well together right now that it looks effortless.
It'll be a decision for later in the day for me, depending on how the day goes in NBA/NFL. It's hard to go against the Lakers at home, but again, it's really not my style to play big chalk.Comment -
SK -
Great stuff as always my man....love your write ups!
What you got in the NFL Today? I rolled with the following:
SF -3
Carolina +3.5
Miami -3
Washington +9.5
Miami Under 38.5
Parlay: Cleveland/Minny UNDER/Miami UNDER/Arizona OVER
Good luck! I look forward to your plays!
SimonComment -
Hey thanks a lot. I also like your reasoning for betting 1Q and 1H it makes sense.Comment -
I agree with everything on your card there except SF. I feel like JAC is going to win this game. I'm only actually playing the two games listed above, plus a small parlay: HOU ML / ARI +1 / PIT +9 / NE ML (+1281). I might add more for the later games if the morning goes well.
Good luck today
Comment -
Hi Suicide,
A Canuck that doesn't wager hockey...sacrilege
This is the type of (stronger) team that the Raps can beat...because they won't get physically intimidated. The 3rd quarter of the Raps/Celtics game was a bit embarrassing to watch as a Raptors fan...the Celts just bullied them into submission. It was up to Triano to confront Pierce after the knee/dunk on Bosh... no one on the court stepped up...the Raps just hid in the corner. We need Reggie Evans on the floor.
I'll place a small wager on this game (gonna watch it)...which of your wagers do you think is the strongest?
Appreciate the write-ups...
Cheers,
dogcityComment -
I'm the most confident in the PHI/SAN over 194. That line was just wrong to start with, and should have opened no lower than 198. Other than that, I think the TOR 1H, DET 1H, and MEM 1Q are all equally likely.
And I used to wager on hockey, but this season it was going poorly while basketball was going well, so I decided to make NBA my primary sport and see how isolating one sport affected my overall performance. With the exception of a couple of bad days where I didn't stick strictly to the plan, it's been a positive experiment.Comment -
I'll take Raptors 1st half...small...
Thanks and GL...I'll follow your thread...Comment -
DET 2H +5 (-109)
Just missed the DET 2H ML +235... Closed just as I was processing it.. No play on the TOR 2H.Comment -
NFL:
WAS 2H ML (+310)
Washington features excellent 2H defense, averaging just under 6pts allowed in the second half all year. Down by only 2pts, I like the Redskins to steal this one...Comment -
mem/lac - over 197.5 (-103)Comment -
Good luckComment -
NFL 1H Plays
MIN 1H -7 (+106)
ARI 1H +0.5 (+121)
SD 1H -7 (-118)Comment -
11/29 NBA
BOS/MIA - OVER 187 (-103)
This is another example of two good defensive teams with high powered offensive players meeting and the total being set too low (or in this case pushed by the market). These teams avg closing O/U and final total are:
BOS (on the road): 187.5 & 189
MIA (at home): 193.5 & 188
which is borderline, but both teams will be forced to push the pace early in an attempt to establish dominance. I expect Miami to win the first quarter, but after that, it's hard to say. No play on the side for me.Comment -
Well, looks like it's time for me to take a few days off. I knew it tonight when Memphis gave up that lead... A few days off and I'll come back with a clear perspective. I feel like right now I'm being too aggressive and my previously successful tactics are failing me. Now I'm back to just about where I started a month ago, so it seems like an appropriate time for a breather.
However, I had already booked two last plays for tonight:
LAL 1Q -4.5 (-121)
LAL 1Q Over 48.5 (-120)
Hopefully the Lakers can pull through for me. I'll still be around a bit. Just not playing until at least wed/thurs.Comment -
Suicide you need to stop playing overs. If you are playing totals always look for unders. It's no good hoping for these clowns to make shots. Also try to play full games. I 'm not sure why you are playing so many halves and quarters. I like your work. Taking time off is good sometimes but battling through it can be good too.Comment -
Battling through is good advice most of the time. I find if I'm getting frustrated though a day or two to clear my head is the way to get back on track the fastest. Just long enough to let the sting of the last beats go away.
As for the halves and quarters, I feel like they're the best opportunity to find rogue lines. Some teams are great 1Q or 1H teams, but fade in the 2H. These teams are often the dogs, and so will get favourable lines early like Memphis today, getting 1Q+1 and 1H+2, and then winning the quarter by 7 and the half by 15. Every day there are mismatches in the 1Q/1Hs to exploit and there's really nothing the books can do to tighten them up because the 1Q/1H lines are tied to the full game lines.
I think I'm just going to take another bit of advice from you and start mapping out my week a little further in advance. I've got faith my mojo will come back soon.Comment
