suicidekings NBA 2009

[suicidekings]

11/25 Quarters

CLE 1Q -1.5 (-110) - Autobet CLE 1Q. This has been a very successful bet this year, going 11-2-1. The only losses came against TOR in their 2nd game and WAS in their 4th (before Shaq had really integrated himself), and the push required IND to score 38 points in the 1Q. Let's see them accomplish that again...

CLE/DET 1Q Over 46.5 (-115) - This number is a full 4.5 points lower than it should be. Cleveland is a fast starting team that forces their opponents to match suit or be buried early. When I see two good defensive teams facing off, and there's at least one spark player like Lebron in the game, I'll take the Over every time.

NOH 1Q -0.5 (-115) - The Hornets are strong in the 1Q at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.9pts while the Bucks give up 3.6pts more than opponents in 1Q on the road.

HOU 1Q -1 (-115) - The Rockets are 5-0-1 in 1Qs at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 pts. They need this fast start to set the tone for the game as they try to take advantage of a weakened DAL.

MEM 1Q +3.5 (+100) - The Grizz are a great 1Q road team (+4.3pts), and I expect them to win the 1Q outright. Even if you like the Suns to win the game, the Grizz are the better 1Q team and +3.5 is way too much to give them.
__________________________________

All of the above lines are far off from where they should be, based on the season averages for each team. However, since the 1Q/1H lines are inherently tied to the full game lines, there are some severe mismatches available. These five are the softest lines you'll see all day (plus a couple of 1H lines).

[HoulihansTX]

Nice stats Suicide.

By the way do you know who the best 1st half home team is??

[jdhender]

love these calls - Houston big tonight

[suicidekings]

Nice stats Suicide.

By the way do you know who the best 1st half home team is??

For point differential and SU W/L record, the best 1H home teams are:

1) PHX: +9.8 pts (4-1-0)
2) POR: +8.9 pts (8-0-0)
3) TOR: +8.9 pts (5-2-0)
4) LAL: +8.5 pts (9-2-0)
5) SAN: +7.9 pts (5-2-1)
6) ATL: +7.3 pts (6-1-0)
7) ORL: +6.1 pts (4-2-1)
8) DET: +5.4 pts (4-1-0)
9) BOS: +4.8 pts (6-2-0)
10) HOU: +4.5 pts (6-0-0)

And the worst are:

1) NYK: -6.1 pts (3-5-0)
2) MIN: -4.9 pts (2-5-0)
3) CHI: -4.8 pts (1-4-0)
4) NJN: -4.2 pts (1-4-1)
5) WAS: -3.2 pts (1-5-0)

[HoulihansTX]

No doubt. Thanks. I dont do to many exotic bets, but may lay the Wood with the Spurs 1st half. Warriors are getting love for that win last night. But they should be tired, and complacent with the win. 3 players played all 48mins last night, and the are on a B2B road game. I like my odds.

[suicidekings]

11/25 First Half Plays

CLE/DET 1H Over 93.5 (-113) - Same logic as the 1Q pick. I expect a fast start and for the Over for the full game to be a foregone conclusion before the 1H is done.

NOH 1H -1 (-108) - Again, the Hornets are a solid 1H team and are 5-1-1 ATS at home this year on a projected -1.5 line. I bought it down to -1 for a little extra insurance as the -1.5 was available at plus money and there was some flexibility.

[suicidekings]

If you're interested in that game, the GSW average -4.1 pts in 1Hs on the road, but are still 4-4 ATS on a +7.5 spread projected over their 8 road games. The point differentials seem appealing, but +7.5 is a ton of points to give a team that when let off the leash, can score as well as any team in the NBA.

The biggest problem I have with the bet is that the Warriors have been playing with a short roster for most of the season, and time after time we think they're going to run out of gas, and they just don't, as proven by the CLE & BOS games on B2B nights. They were actually better rested for this B2B than they were for the CLE/BOS one and don't play again for a couple of days so there's nothing holding them back from pushing just as hard tonight.

[H-Diesel503]

I agree with you on GS being tired. Spurs have such a deliberate half court offense that GS will have to play quite a bit of defense, or lack there of, tonight.

Spurs win big.

[suicidekings]

11/25 - Second Half Play

CHR pk (-110) - CHR is a stronger 2H team when at home, and they're doing everything right tonight. They're scoring in the paint, they're playing better defense in every aspect, and most importantly, they're doing an excellent job of neutralizing Chris Bosh.

[suicidekings]

11/25 - Second Half Play #2

CLE/DET 2H OVER 90.5 (+102)

[suicidekings]

november 25th results

totals

phi / bos - over 186 (-110) x1.5 win
cle / det - over 183 (-114) x1.5 win
dal / hou - over 201 (-113) x1.5 win
nyk / sac - under 218 (-111) x1.5 win

sides

chr -2.5 (-108) x1.5win
hou -4 (-105) x1.5 lose
noh -4 (-103) x1.5 lose... This one hurts.
mem +10.5 (-107) x1.5 lose
mem ml (+569) lose

quarters

cle 1q -1.5 (-110) win
cle/det 1q over 46.5 (-115) win
noh 1q -0.5 (-115) lose
hou 1q -1 (-115) lose
mem 1q +3.5 (+100) win

First Halfs

CLE/DET 1H Over 93.5 (-113) win
NOH 1H -1 (-108) lose

Second Halfs

CLE/DET 2H OVER 90.5 (+102) lose
CHR 2H pk (-110) win

11/25: 10-8-0 (55.6%) (+2.4u)
YTD: 92-82-1 (52.87%) (+19.55u) (Z-Score: 1.02)
L-50 Plays: 29-21-0 (58.0%) (+11.78u) (Z-Score: 1.38)

[suicidekings]

The NOH -4 is a frustrating loss when the -2.5 would have won... As is the CLE/DET 2H O90.5, seeing as NOTHING happened in the first half of the 4th quarter, and it still only lost by 7 points.

But once again, a winning day is better than nothing so I can't complain.

[suicidekings]

I'm going to enjoy some American Thanksgiving football today (from Canada), taking the slow NBA day as a chance to play around with my NFL model, even though the game card for the day is crap. I'm trying to apply my 1Q/1H approach from the NBA to NFL. Small plays just for fun.

Green Bay @ Detroit
GB & DET both score more points in the 1H than the second, typically. I don't see why that wouldn't be true against Detroit as well. Detroit & Green Bay's average Closing O/U and final game score are: 44 & 48.2 and 44.5 & 41.1, respectively, and the last time they played, the total was set at 48.5. This time it started a little lower at 47, but has crept up to 47.5. DET's 38 pt performance last week plus a couple of missing key defensive players for GB make this look like an Over, but I feel like if Vegas liked the Over, the line would have started higher to encourage the the public to bet the Under.

GB/DET 1Q Over 9.5 (-120) 0.25u
GB/DET 1H Over 24 (-104) 0.25u
GB/DET Under 48 (-110) 0.5u

Oakland @ Dallas
Dallas is inconsistent and Romo may not be 100%. I capped this game at 36.5, but it opened at 41. Dallas is a much better second half team, while Oakland's defense has been much better in the 2H. Avg closing O/U & Final Score for OAK & DAL are: 39 & 30.5, and 45 & 40.3.

OAK/DAL Under 40 (-104) 0.5u
OAK/DAL 1H Under 20 (+105) 0.25u

-> OAK/DAL plays have not been booked, pending the result from the first game. I only wanted to put a little money on the NFL today as it's an experiment and not my strong suit. Any winnings from the first two games will likely find their way into a parlay for the final game.

[ragiche]

Happy Thanksgiving SK.

[suicidekings]

Happy Thanksgiving SK.

Thanks Ragiche! And to you as well.

[lakerboy]

Hey SK you are doing a great job.

[HoulihansTX]

Great Job, and Happy Thanksgiving.

[suicidekings]

11/26 NBA Plays

The more I look at the two games today, the more sure I am of a couple of things.

ORL @ ATL

I'm torn on the side for this game. I lean slightly to ATL, but I would play the ML if anything. I think it's a no play for me. However, the ATL -3.5 line has yielded a soft line for the 1Q, with ORL +1. I make the Magic to be -1.5 faves for the 1Q, so I think ORL 1Q +1 is a strong play.

Next, the totals. This is one of my favourite situational plays in the NBA. When two good defensive teams with solid offensive weapons on both sides meet, I strongly favour the Over in the 1Q, 1H, and for the game. The reasoning is that both teams will need to be aggressive in the first half in order to stay in the game, as each side tries to set the tone. To beat a good defensive team, an aggressive start is critical. These situations are typically characterized by an opening total that is too low, when compared to the average closing O/U for each team. In this case, the stats somewhat support this (Avg closing O/Us for ORL & ATL are 194.5 & 198.5, respectively) and I would have played the opening line on the total but I was late on it. I'm playing the Over for both the 1Q and 1H, as Orlando on the road and Atlanta at home are both prone to fast starts and higher scoring first halfs. In the second half, ATL has the edge, going 5-2 SU at home this year (+6.6pts), compared to ORL, (3-4, -2.9pts in 2H on the road). For the 2H, I would expect ATL to win it, and the Under to be more likely.

ORL 1Q +1 (-105)
ORL/ATL 1Q OVER 49.5 (-102)
ORL/ATL 1H OVER 98 (-115)

[suicidekings]

Hey SK you are doing a great job.

Great Job, and Happy Thanksgiving.

Thanks guys. That means a lot, as I definitely respect both of your opinions, and I'm always interested in hearing what you guys have to say. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well.

[suicidekings]

GB/DET 1Q Over 9.5 (-120) 0.25u LOSE
GB/DET 1H Over 24 (-104) 0.25u LOSE
GB/DET Under 48 (-110) 0.5u WIN
OAK/DAL Under 40 (-104) 0.5u WIN
OAK/DAL 1H Under 20 (+105) 0.25u WIN

3-2 so far, with a net gain of 0.70u. I was prepared to lose that unit on the games I originally played today, and seeing as I'm up, I added a little more for my parlay in the final game.

The Broncos and the Giants are both good teams, despite their respective losing streaks. I feel like this being such a high intensity game, with a huge national audience, the home field is a big factor. Added to that, Orten is back and Denver need a win this week badly. The line movement up to DEN +6 in an attempt to balance out the betting followed by the reverse back to NYG -4.5 once it got closer to 50% tells me that the books either have no significant leans one way or the other, or they received some heavy money on the Broncos in the last couple of hours. Either one of these is enough to make me lean a little more towards the home dog to pick up the win outright in the Thanksgiving Day late game.

As for the total, I liked it when it to go under when it opened at 42.5, and the movement up to 43.5 just encourages me. Average Closing O/U and Final Score for NYG & DEN are 44 & 43.6 and 41 & 31.8 respectively. This game is an Under by nature, when these teams are playing well, and I feel like the national spotlight is going to bring out the best in both, which equals tight defense and a low scoring game.

Parlay: Under 43.5 / Broncos ML (+472) - 1.5 units to win 7.08

[suicidekings]

The Magic are going to get blown out in this game unless Dwight Howard establishes himself very quickly. They're not going to win it on 3s tonight. I like the Hawks to pound the Magic...

[suicidekings]

CHI @ UTA

This game is a matchup between teams in a bad spot. The only bet I feel good about is my Utah 1Q at home autobet. They're 7-0 SU and 5-2 at -2 this year in home 1Qs, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.1 pts.

UTA 1Q -2 (-105)

Later on in the game, CHI is 0-7-1 in 2Hs on the road, SU, being outscored by an average of 9.3pts. However, Utah is not much better at 4-3 and -1.3pts. Possible play later, but we'll see...

[suicidekings]

11/26 NBA Plays

ORL 1Q +1 (-105)
ORL/ATL 1Q OVER 49.5 (-102)
ORL/ATL 1H OVER 98 (-115)

0-3 (-3.22u)... I still feel like the bets were the right moves for this matchup, but Orlando is playing much worse than I anticipated. 1 basket in the last 9 minutes of the 2nd? Are you kidding me?

[suicidekings]

ATL 2H ML (+135) 2.5 to win 3.38

I had already decided on a play on the Hawks for the 2H. I see no reason to mess around with the +2 (-102) as I feel like Atlanta is going to run away with this game. Orlando is just not doing what they need to do to win this one.

[suicidekings]

Wow, I stand corrected. Not a lot I can do about this now. The 2H line is done, but I feel like the Hawks have the capacity to come back and win this game, so I've put one more unit down on the Hawks Game ML (+262) on the off chance that they can come back and cut some losses. If not, this would have been the worst game of the year for me anyways, and I feel the small addition now won't make it much worse.

Sigh...

[suicidekings]

3-2 so far, with a net gain of 0.70u. I was prepared to lose that unit on the games I originally played today, and seeing as I'm up, I added a little more for my parlay in the final game.

The Broncos and the Giants are both good teams, despite their respective losing streaks. I feel like this being such a high intensity game, with a huge national audience, the home field is a big factor. Added to that, Orten is back and Denver need a win this week badly. The line movement up to DEN +6 in an attempt to balance out the betting followed by the reverse back to NYG -4.5 once it got closer to 50% tells me that the books either have no significant leans one way or the other, or they received some heavy money on the Broncos in the last couple of hours. Either one of these is enough to make me lean a little more towards the home dog to pick up the win outright in the Thanksgiving Day late game.

As for the total, I liked it to go under when it opened at 42.5, and the movement up to 43.5 just encourages me. Average Closing O/U and Final Score for NYG & DEN are 44 & 43.6 and 41 & 31.8 respectively. This game is an Under by nature, when these teams are playing well, and I feel like the national spotlight is going to bring out the best in both, which equals tight defense and a low scoring game.

Parlay: Under 43.5 / Broncos ML (+472) - 1.5 units to win 7.08 WIN

Yeah! The Broncos are back...

[suicidekings]

NFL: 4-2 (+7.78u)
NBA: 1-5 (-5.72u)

Basically, my NFL parlay came through huge today, to give me a positive day overall, despite the awful day in the NBA. It's better to be lucky that good...

I maintain that the 3 early plays were good calls and the slow start from Orlando derailed them. The 2H/Live plays however, were obviously not a great idea, and rarely come out positive for me. I think I'm going to completely cut out the 2H plays from now on. They have their place, but don't really seem to be working for me. I'll still post 2H stats when something juicy pops up, but I won't be playing them.

NBA 2009 YTD: 93-87-1 (51.67%) (+13.83u) (Z-Score: 0.70)
NBA 2009: L-50 PLAYS: 27-23-0 (54.0%) (+6.25u) (Z-Score: 0.70)

[suicidekings]

11/27 Overnight Totals

Moving on from yesterday's disaster... Here are four totals I'm playing on Friday.

NYK / DEN - Under 219 (-116) x1.5

I have this game capped at 205. New York is in rough shape right now, unable to score, getting beaten up by the Lakers and Kings, and now flying to Denver for the last game in their west coast trip. I feel like they'll barely show up and the result will be a slower paced game with poor shooting from NYK and a slowdown at the end of the game as there will be no incentive for Denver to push hard in the 4th quarter. DEN and NYK's average home/road Closing O/U & Final Scores are 209.5 & 215.5, and 205 & 200, respectively.

MIL / OKC - Under 197.5 (-112) x1.5

The average closing O/U & Final Scores are: MIL on the road (193.5 & 186.5) and OKC at home (193 & 192). I projected this game at 192. Durant's been playing well, and even though he's a threat to go off for a lot of points, I don't see there being anything to drive this game over. They're two of the young, up and coming teams in the NBA and they'll play this one tight.

MEM / POR - Over 194 (-117) x1.5

Memphis is playing with a lot of confidence right now, shooting at a higher % than earlier in the season. Their average final score in road games is 221.5, a full 11.5 points above their average Closing O/U (210). Portland is averaging a total score of 189 in home games this year, but that includes visits from CHI, NJN, SAN, DET, & MINx2. Memphis is very capable of scoring, and when Portland gets pushed, they push back.

PHX / MIN - Under 215 (-114) x1.5

I have this game capped at 200. The average final score in PHX road games is 214.5, which I know seems high for this Total, but MIN's average final score at home is only 186.5, which is 7 points lower than their average closing O/U, 30 points under the Total for this game, and the 4th lowest in the NBA (only CHI, NJN & CHR are lower). This means PHX could score almost 30 more points than an average opponent in a MIN home game and the total would still stay under.

[suicidekings]

11/27 1Q, 1H, etc

CLE 1Q -1.5 (-108) - (x2)(AutoBet) - CLE is 12-2 this year (6-2 on the road) in 1Qs with a -1.5 spread or better (10-5 with -2), outscoring opponents by 6.1pts on the road.

CLE 1H -2.5 (-110) - (AutoBet) CLE is 7-1-0 in 1Hs on the road this year at a spread of -2.5.

HOU 1Q -0.5 (+100) - HOU is 5-1-1 SU in 1Qs at home this year (+2.9pts), while SAN is 2-2 on the road in 1Qs (-5.5pts)

Other interesting 1Q/1H items for tomorrow

- PHX is 1-8 SU in 1Qs (-4.3pts) and 2-6-1 in 1Hs (-3.7pts) on the road this year. With a -10 game line, the 1Q & 1H lines will likely be around -3 and -6, and PHX are 0-9 in covering both. Both PHX & MIN typically score more points in the 2H, so with the inflated total, the 1H Under may be an option. Lines at -3, -5. No play.

- MEM @ POR - 1Q & 1H lines at -4 & -7, based on the -12 game line. MEM is 8-0 on the road this year in 1Qs when given +4 points, and 7-1 when given +7 points for the 1H. Portland is 5-4 in covering 1Q-4 and 1Q-7.

- CHR is 6-1 SU (+7.4pts) in 2Hs at home, while CLE is 4-4 (-3.8pts) on the road.

- TOR is 2-7 SU in 2Hs on the road (-4.9pts), while BOS is 6-3 (+5.2pts) in 2Hs at home.

- DAL is 7-1 SU (+4.5pts) in 2Hs on the road this year.

[suicidekings]

11/27 Overnight Totals

Moving on from yesterday's disaster... Here are four totals I'm playing on Friday.

NYK / DEN - Under 219 (-116) x1.5
MIL / OKC - Under 197.5 (-112) x1.5
MEM / POR - Over 194 (-117) x1.5
PHX / MIN - Under 215 (-114) x1.5

Adding:

WAS / MIA - Under 198 (+111)

I have this game capped at 191.5. Average Closing O/U & Final Game Scores are:
WAS (on the road): 199 & 193.5 (-5.5)
MIA (at home): 193 & 189.5 (-3.5)
The Under is 6-1 in WAS road games this season and their previous meeting this season in Miami ended at 166, falling well under the 185 O/U. So why did this game open 14 points higher than last time?

[lakerboy]

Adding:

WAS / MIA - Under 198 (+111)

I have this game capped at 191.5. Average Closing O/U & Final Game Scores are:
WAS (on the road): 199 & 193.5 (-5.5)
MIA (at home): 193 & 189.5 (-3.5)
The Under is 6-1 in WAS road games this season and their previous meeting this season in Miami ended at 166, falling well under the 185 O/U. So why did this game open 14 points higher than last time?

To answer that question is simple. Last time Arenas wasnt supposed to play until a last second decision to start him and Jamison wasnt there either.

[suicidekings]

Jamison... right. Looking at it again, I still feel alright about this total. The only addition is Antawn and I feel like the 31 point difference between the final score in the last game and the total for this one is more than he'll add to the game. I'll just hope for a nice slow game. The Heat play at the second slowest pace in the NBA, after the Cavs.

Full Card:

NYK / DEN - Under 219 (-116) x1.5
MIL / OKC - Under 197.5 (-112) x1.5
MEM / POR - Over 194 (-117) x1.5
PHX / MIN - Under 215 (-114) x1.5
WAS / MIA - Under 198 (+111)

DEN -12.5 (-108) x1.5
OKC -5 (-107) x1.5
CLE -5 (-105) x1.5

CLE 1Q -1.5 (-108) x2
CLE 1H -2.5 (-110)

[lakerboy]

While i agree the under looks good. You are looking at the final score of the last game too much. Washington died in the fourth qtr otherwise it was a close game. I think Jamison easily adds 14 pts to the closing line of the last games total. I like your plays tonite. Especially the minny under

[CaDDyy]

okc -5 is money

[suicidekings]

While i agree the under looks good. You are looking at the final score of the last game too much. Washington died in the fourth qtr otherwise it was a close game. I think Jamison easily adds 14 pts to the closing line of the last games total. I like your plays tonite. Especially the minny under

Thanks Laker. Good luck tonight.