Nice night
-
Comment -
No worries man. Teamwork beats the books, in the end. Hopefully day 2 of the excel sheet does as well as day 1
Comment -
Sharp lines and tough matchups to cap today... I can't believe my favourite play of the day is on the Clippers...
1st Quarters
- Pending
1st Halfs
MEM 1H +3 (-116) - MEM is 5-1 ATS as +3 1H road dogs. PHI is 2-4 ATS as -3 1H home faves.
ORL 1H +3.5 (-112) - ORL IS 4-1 ATS as +3.5 1H road dogs. BOS is 4-3 ATS as -3.5 1H home faves.
LAC 1H +5 (-109) x2 - DEN is 1-6 ATS as -5 1H road faves. LAC is 6-1 ATS as +5 1H home dogs.
LAC 1H ML (+239)
Game
HOU +7 (-106) x2
HOU ML (+248)
- Situationally, I like the Rockets here. Atlanta is playing their last game of a 4 game homestand and their 6th game of a 7 games in 11 days stretch. They've also covered 6 ATS in a row, but the last two have been against a faltering Miami team and Portland who was on their last game of a 5 game trip. Perfect spot for a big Atlanta letdown. Added to that, despite a 63-37 split of bets favouring ATL, the line is standing steady at HOU +7. When there's an imbalance in the betting, but the line doesn't move, someone's about to get f*cked... Hope it's not me
*All ATS stats listed are projected by comparing actual MOVs for 1Q/1H/2H from previous games to todays available spreads (as shown), based on Pinnacle lines. They may not correspond with actual ATS records from this year for the teams listed.Comment -
I like your logic on that Houston game. I am in agreement, Houston has been in every game they have played this year except for the Dallas game. I think Atlanta's bubble finally pops tonight. Look for Battier to disrupt the hell out of Joe Johnson with great defense. JJ has shot under 40% combined over the past 2 years in this battle.Comment -
Nov 20th Full Card
Full Game
HOU +7 (-106) x2
HOU ML (+248)
1st Half
MEM 1H +3 (-116)
ORL 1H +3.5 (-112)
LAC 1H +5 (-109) x2
LAC 1H ML (+239)
1st Quarter
CLE -1 (-105)
ORL +1.5 (-104)
My favourite plays of the night are the Clippers 1H +5/ML, and the Rockets +7/ML. Unfortunately (or maybe not), I won't get to watch the games tonight, so good luck to everyone.
Comment -
Nov 20: 6-2 (+7.34u)
YTD: 60-58-1 (+9.45u)Comment -
ORL 1Q -1 (-105) 1.5uComment -
IND 1Q pk (+100)Comment -
ORL 1Q -1 (-105) 1.5u LOSS
IND 1Q pk (+100) LOSS
0-2 (-2.58u)
Pending:
LAL 1Q -3 (-116)
LAL 1H -6 (-103)Comment -
Monday, Nov 23
I actually like all four favourites today to cover, which is a rarity for me.
SAC @ MEM
Sacramento on the road has been awful in the 1H (0-4-2) and I expect the Grizz to be ahead by the half. SAC has been a bit better in 2Hs, and might be a play but we'll see. MEM has a big edge in the 1Q as well, typically outscoring opponents by 1.7 pts at home while SAC gets outscored in the 1Q by an average of 6.2pts on the road.
MEM 1Q -1.5 (-102)
MEM 1H -2.5 (-107)
MIL @ SAN
Milwaukee has only played 4 games on the road so far and the results have been mixed. They've been outscored in road 1Qs by an average of 3.3pts, but have done better in 2Qs (+2pts). San Antonio, however, is a decent 1Q home team, and strong in home 1Hs (5-2, +9.1pts). I like SAN to cover the 1Q & 1H lines easily, with a possible MIL 2H play if SAN has a big enough lead at the half.
SAN 1Q -2.5 (-102)
SAN 1H -4.5 (-109)
CHI @ POR
I feel the strongest about this game. Chicago is a weak road team, and Portland is really tough at home. In 7 home games this season, after losing the first two 1Qs, POR has gone 5-0, winning the remaining 1Qs by an average of 9pts. In 1H performance at home, Portland is 4th best in home 1Hs, and outscore opponents by an average of 8.0pts. Chicago has been mediocre in 1Hs, going 3-4. However, two of those wins were against SAC & DEN, who have been very weak 1H teams so far this year. In second halves on the road, Chicago is the 2nd worst 2H team in the NBA, giving up an average of 9.3pts more than opponents.
I also like the total in this game. Chicago & Portland's average closing O/U & final game scores have been 194.5 & 184.8, and 189.5 & 182.7 respectively. I bought the Over 181.5 last night before the jump up to 184.
POR 1Q -2.5 (-103)
POR 1H -4 (-107)
POR GM -7.5 (-103)
OVER 181.5 (-106)
MIN @ LAC
All the value in this game is in the first half. Minnesota is a disaster on the road (and in general), being outscored by an average of 4.5pts in the 1Q and 9pts in the 1H. The Clippers are a decent home 1H team outscoring opponents by 1.4pts & 1.8pts in 1Q & 1H, respectively. In the second half though, both teams are awful and it's really a tossup as to what will happen. The reverse line movement in the game is a little weird, but I'm sticking to my guns on these. I honestly think MIN might get win #2 tonight, but if they do, it'll be a second half surge that gets them there. LAC won their first meeting 93-90 in LA, but MIN won the second half in that game by 6pts.
The total in the 1H looks good to me as well. I capped the 1H at 101.5, so the O95.5 available looked good. I bought up to O96 to get a slightly better price.
LAC 1Q -1.5 (-105)
LAC 1H -3 (-109)
LAC 1H OVER 96 (-110)Comment -
BOL, I'm on SA & Clippers also
Comment -
Adding one more.
3 Team Parlay (+597)
-Spurs -8.5
-Blazers -8
-Grizzlies -5.5Comment -
SAC 2H pk (-110)Comment -
Good luck SKings....like that one a bit. Under 103 +100 for me. Hopefully they both cash.Comment -
MIL 2H +5.5 (+100) x2
MIL 2H ML (+269)
MIL 3-1 in 2H on the road with +5.5 to work with. SAN is 2-5 at home in the 2H with -5.5. Milwaukee starters are all playing well, whereas most of the production for SAN has been coming off the bench. Milwaukee already with 4 blocked shots and only 2 turnovers in the first half. Time to roll the dice on a good Milwaukee team...Comment -
So far this year, I started off hot, and was up over 10u at one point before going ice cold for 3 days and losing all the progress I had made, going down as low as approx -3.5u. Since then, I've rebounded back up to my current position. It happens, but hopefully I can avoid another backslide that dramatic.
In addition to my YTD stats, I'm going to start displaying my last 50 plays and a couple of other stats as an additional indicator of how I'm doing. I keep track of this in a separate Excel file, and figure that keeping it public is a good encouragement for me to not make stupid 2H plays like I did with MIL tonight.
NBA YTD Stats
W-L-P: 72-66-1 (52.17%) (+16.42u)
Faves: 60-40-1 (58.82%) (+19.57u)
Dogs: 12-26-0 (32.43%) (-3.15u)
Z-Score: 0.92
P[Z]: 17.8%
NBA L-50 Plays
Date Range: Nov 17 - Nov 23
W-L-P: 30-20-0 (60%) (+16.67u)
Faves: 26-11-0 (70.3%) (+15.61u)
Dogs: 4-9-0 (30.8%) (+1.06u)
Z-Score: 1.85
P[Z]: 3.2%
Some of the wagers listed under dogs were ML dogs and some were parlays. Most were just longshots and I knew it, but it's pretty clear they cut my Win% down a lot, so I'm going to be more careful with them from now on. I haven't decided on the criteria yet, but I'm going to limit my action on dogs, and restrict my plays on parlays to 3 teamers.
Otherwise, restricting my plays primarily to 1Q/1H plays has been extremely effective so far. I'm going to continue refining my approach and see if I can improve.Comment -
If anyone's interested in learning a little about stats that can help you become a better capper, take a look in the thread below for a quick lesson in Z-Scores. It also includes a link to Ganchrow's original thread about them (where I learned it).
Comment -
November 24
1Q Plays
GSW 1Q +4 (-105)
NJN 1Q +4 (-110)
UTA 1Q -2.5 (-103) x2
LAL 1Q -4 (-110)
1H Plays
TOR -2.5 (-111)
GSW +7 (-101)
NJN +7 (-104)
UTA -3.5 (-127) x2
LAL -6.5 (-126)Comment -
GSW @ DAL
Both teams are weak 1H teams, but both can also score at an obscene rate when they need to. In Dallas' 13 games this season, only twice would they have covered a -7 point spread at the half. I feel comfortable taking the +7 here.
NJN @ DEN
Despite the Nets still being winless, they're actually a pretty good 1H team, and 7 points in a lot to give them. Denver has been an exceptionally weak 1H team this year, and would have covered -7 only once in 13 games. They do, however, have the most potent 2H in the NBA at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.6 pts. If the Nets have a decent first half, I'll be taking the Nuggets in the 2H.
IND @ TOR
I feel like Toronto shouldn't be favoured by 5. I like them in the first half at -2.5, but I'm not playing the full game.
OKC @ UTA
For me, UTA 1Q & 1H are autoplays when they're at home. Against OKC, I've made them x2. I love OKC in 2Hs, but they're bad in the 1H and Utah is going to smack them down hard for the first half of the game. The Jazz outscore opponents in the 1Q at home by 7.8pts on average, while the Thunder on the road give up an average of 4.1pts and 8.1pts more than opponents in the 1Q & 1H respectively. As always, there will possibly be a OKC 2H play, depending on how the game plays out.
NYK @ LAL
NYK has been playing better on the road recently, however that was against New Jersey & Indiana. The Lakers are a dominant home team that's well rested and I really can't see the Knicks stepping up tonight in their first (and toughest) game of a west coast road trip. They may take the second half and cover the game spread, but the 1H will belong to the Lakers.Comment -
My strongest play of the day for a full game is Philadelphia at Washington.
Washington is having issues and right now the stress that's coming from losing is overwhelming any attempt to pull the team together. Jamison is back, but Miller is out. When even your head coach is making statements to the media about how the team is in a bad situation and everyone is frustrated, that's a bad sign for relief coming any time soon.
Philadelphia has lost their last two games, but to the Cavs in Cleveland and to Memphis, who are very under-rated and playing much better after the departure of AI. I like the 76ers to play a strong game tonight, trying to turn it around against a weaker team in turmoil.
Tonight also marks the one year anniversary of Eddie Jordan's firing by the Washington Wizards. The 76ers will come out guns blazing and try to get the win for Jordan in Washington. Additionally, the Wizards owner Abe Pollin died today, and I can't help but feel that it will be a distraction for an already scattered Wizards team.
From a stats perspective, Philly swept the Wizards last year, going 4-0, winning by an average of 10 points. PHI has the edge in the 1Q, with WAS typically giving up 5.2 pts more to opponents, and a slight edge in the 1H overall. In the second half, the Wizards have been good at home this season, but as stated above, I feel like they're going to have trouble pulling it together tonight.
PHI 1Q +0.5 (+101)
PHI 1H +1.5 (-111)
PHI GM +3 (-110) x1.5
PHI ML (+132)Comment -
Adding one small parlay. I'm convinced that TOR doesn't cover. All that suspicious LACK of line movement despite 75% on the Raptors... I liked the under in the game, so I went with:
Parlay: Under 216 / Indy +5.5 (+281)Comment -
2H Plays
DEN -4 (+100) x2
NJN/DEN U103 (-110)
UTA -5.5 (-109)Comment -
damn, you all over the board. Good luck. Nice hit yesterday on the parlayComment -
November 25th Totals
Listed average closing O/U and final game scores shown
PHI / BOS - Over 186 (-110) x1.5
TEAM: (Avg. Closing O/U) (Avg Final Score)
PHI: 194.5 193.6
BOS: 191 187.4
Jamison and the Wizards pretty much had their way with Philly today, scoring at will for most of the game. Boston will likely be able to do the same, but the 76es won't just lie down and take it. They can score as well, and I think the combination will be enough to go over.
CLE / DET - Over 183 (-114) x1.5
TEAM: (Avg. Closing O/U) (Avg Final Score)
CLE: 193 194.2
DET: 189 186.4
As much as Detroit will try to control the pace at home, the Cavs are going to be the one in charge. I feel like this one will start off fast with a big 1Q and from that point it will be hard to keep it under.
DAL / HOU - Over 201 (-113) x1.5
This one's not supported by the numbers, but I feel strongly about it. Dallas is missing 3 starters due to injury, leaving holes in their defense, and Houston is well rested. The Over is 4-2 for Houston at home this year, and 9-5 overall.
NYK / SAC - Under 218 (-111) x1.5
TEAM: (Avg. Closing O/U) (Avg Final Score)
NYK: 206.5 203.2
SAC: 204.5 208.8
Two teams with atrocious defense, but neither really possesses huge offensive weapons either. In games like this, I feel the total is often set too high, and I expect to see a lot of poor shooting and turnovers eat up the clock.Comment -
Nov 25th Sides
CHR -2.5 (-108) x1.5
HOU -4 (-105) x1.5
NOH -4 (-103) x1.5
I normally wouldn't book games until the day of, but I like all of these a lot and expect at least some of the lines to move overnight.
Added This Morning:
MEM +10.5 (-107) x1.5
MEM ML (+569)Comment -
- CHR: Not much to say. This one will be a popular play, as CHR's offense has come alive recently, albeit against weaker teams, but I feel like they have the confidence to shut down TOR today.
- NOH: I really like the Hornets in this game. They've fallen out of favour recently despite playing the best bball they have all year, and this line is softer than it should be, playing against the current bettor darlings, the Bucks. I have them capped as -5.5 faves and will also be playing them in the 1Q/1H. I wish I had waited until today to bet it as I could be getting -2.5 (+100) right now, but wtv...
- HOU: I feel like the Rockets are going to smack down the Mavs like the hand of god today... The Mavs are missing 3 starters, and they've been very fortunate in their last few games with some late game heroics. This road trip is going to be when it all catches up to them, and I'll be fading the Mavs for the next couple of games. I'll also be playing the Rockets 1Q, as they are 5-0-1 in 1Qs at home, with an average MOV of 5.2 pts.
- MEM: I actually feel the strongest about this game today. I let it sit overnight to think about it, and so I missed the +11.5, but I actually feel like that point won't matter, and I think the Grizz have a solid chance to win this one outright. Memphis is playing with more confidence now than they've had all season against a team that thrives on offense, but doesn't play defense. Their last few games have been against weaker clubs mostly, but in that stretch they've gone 4-1 and reduced their avg ppga from 111.1 to 96.6, for a 15 point differential. Even against the teams they've faced (MIN,LAC,PHI,MIL,SAC), that's a sign of solid improvement. In that same stretch their offense has improved and they've been shooting 51% from the field. I may be way off, but I like this one a lot.Comment
