Heavy Majority on Orlando, but no Line Movement????

[HoulihansTX]

Does this mean the line is where the books want it to stay?

Looks like the books dont want to give a Cleveland cover anymore of an edge.

When was the last time this happened?

Check out the dissonance on---- http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...-betting-chart

Huge aint it???

And there is some Reverse Line Movement on the Lakers/Nuggs Spread

[HoulihansTX]

This game looks like a bad one to bet on unless youre betting small. For Cleveland to cover they would have to do some thing they havent done in over a year. Which is Beating Orlando by more than 7 points. That is a feat they have never done, but tied it 2/11/08. That was ten games ago.

Cleveland has won only 2 out of the last 7 games vs Orlando. Also they have been blown out by Orlando on many occasions.

I'm staying away form the spread, but I think the 190OVER is a given. The Refs will play a major part in this game, and Cleveland is not stopping Orlando from getting open looks at the 3Pt.

[X-Rated]

I have a feeling the Magics are gonna finish off the Cavs game 5. The previous line for two games at Cavs were 9, but this time only set to 7.5. I believe Orlando +7.5 is the play.

[SexyMit]

Yes they are still -7.5 after losing both in Orlando. After not covering either one of the 2 in Cleveland and its still 7.5. I'm on Cleveland BIG tomorrow, everyone drinking that Orlando kool aid, and they are going to get burned tomorrow. Orlando is going to get blown out of the stadium, they only have to win 1 out of next 3 why do it in Cleveland when they can do it at home in game 6.

[lakerboy]

Yes they are still -7.5 after losing both in Orlando. After not covering either one of the 2 in Cleveland and its still 7.5. I'm on Cleveland BIG tomorrow, everyone drinking that Orlando kool aid, and they are going to get burned tomorrow. Orlando is going to get blown out of the stadium, they only have to win 1 out of next 3 why do it in Cleveland when they can do it at home in game 6.

is that the same kool aid that cleveland folks have been drinking

[cockblocker]

is that the same kool aid that cleveland folks have been drinking

Exactly, the books putting the ole swerve on them.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Yes they are still -7.5 after losing both in Orlando. After not covering either one of the 2 in Cleveland and its still 7.5. I'm on Cleveland BIG tomorrow, everyone drinking that Orlando kool aid, and they are going to get burned tomorrow. Orlando is going to get blown out of the stadium, they only have to win 1 out of next 3 why do it in Cleveland when they can do it at home in game 6.

Orlando's Kool aid is tasting much better than Cleveland's right now. Orlando has dominated the Cav's for the past 2.5 years now. I don't see anything that would change that trend. I think the Cav's go fishing tomorrow and I'm a huge Cav fan.

[SexyMit]

Yes they have dominated more but that line just doesn't make sense. Read my signature, I live and die by it. Have made lots of money on it, and I don't intend to stop now. GL and by the way yes I like kool aid lol, but there is now to much money on Orlando tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised to see a blow out. Just my opinion.

[HoulihansTX]

I'm rolling Orlando ML.
Orlando to outlast whatever Cavs home court advantage brings. Cavs home crowd is the loudest of the playoffs. Which is one of the few left in playoffs.More of the same.

[Enforcer_23]

Couldn't care less. Im taking the points till the Magic fail me.

[HoulihansTX]

ORLANDO is 13-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 10-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons


@Cleveland-->ORLANDO is 7-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
-->ORLANDO is 4-3 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons


I rarely use raw trends, but these are a great indicator of the better team. http://www.thespread.com/index.php?o...&order=&back=2

[HoulihansTX]

Some insightful comments I found on SBR.

They won game 3 only making 6 3's and of course they are shooting lights out, they come off the pick and roll and have wide open shots. I can shoot 40% from 3 if I'm wide open everytime and these are the best shooters on the planet pretty much. Cleveland is shooting awful because Orlando is playing great defense and contesting everything. Cleveland is up against a better team and they are lucky that they haven't been blown out because Orlando has those awful cold spells where they do not score for like 5 or 6 minutes in almost every game.

Cavs 1st quarter is very legit. They are the best 1st quarter team in the NBA. They won the 1st quarter in both games @ home vs orl by 14. They slowed down dramatically in the 2nd quarter in both losing by 2 and winning by 1. The Cavs have won and covered every 1st quarter line @ home so far in the playoffs. I like Cavs 1st quarter -2 and 1st half -4 (buying them both down).

The line is way off, and the reason is because Orlando is plain and simple the better team. The lines makers have to make Cleveland 9 point favorites in games 1 and 2 and now 7.5 in game 5 only because they know the idiotic public is all over Lebron James. They make the lines higher so that they will get action on both sides and clean up on the juice. The books are not looking for one sided action, they would love for every game that is ever played to have 50-50 on both sides. I have laughed my way to the bank every game against Orlando looking at the inflated lines for the overrated all year Cleveland Cavaliers. They are now 3-6 this year against the top teams in the league (Lakers, Orlando and Celtics). Orlando should have been 4.5 to 6 point dogs tops in games 1 and 2 and then like 4 or 5 point favorites in games 3 and 4, these lines have been a joke and that is why Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the series. The lines are never set as true odds for a team to win a game, that can never happen because the oddsmakers have the public to think about and have to predict who they will bet based on a number of variables. I agree that the 96% winning clip for teams up 3-1 has nothing to do with this series, but I believe Cleveland has at best a 15-20% chance of winning this series considering the true lines for games 5,6 and 7 should be Cle 5, Orl -4.5 and then Cle-6 respectively.

Throw regular season records and stats out the window, what it comes down to is the fact that Orlando has more talented roleplayers and a deeper bench.

Cleveland has shown that they have no answer for the multiple 3pt threats and containing Howard, it's not a matter of Orlando hitting "lucky" shots from 3, the shots are for the most part uncontested.

[Domestic]

Cavs burnt me last game but I think they are gonna come good tonight.

[aznjeff07]

Cavs 1st quarter at -2, orlando +8, and then parlayed-both with 1/2 a point buy. Thoughts?

I just can't see orlando come out blazing at the cavs home court with the stats behind the cavs
On the other hand i can't see the cavs blowing out the magic by more than 8 when they've only won by a prayer 3 out of 4 games when they've had plenty of chances

[X-Rated]

Its better to go with the team that the refs are backing, which in this case probably are the Cavs. Regardless, as a rule, I wont bet against Orlando, so I might stay away from this game.

[RICHIE801]

I would love to back CLE given the circumstanses but damn they can shoot like and take shots. They blew gigantic leads in games 1 and 2. They can't guard the Orlando shooters, Orl run the pick and roll more than the Utah Jazz and Cle plays pick and roll d and is getting sodomized by giving open buckets beyond the arc. I may have to stay away as well x.

[NBA Hero]

the books never makes mistakes....i hope i dont have to edit this tom . LoL. and add almost. GL but il be on cavs. MY GL is half meant. peace.

well you get what i mean seldom will books make an obvious mistake with just a game per day

[Danskeren]

any thoughts on Lebron over/under 36 points?
I think he will have a big night in this must-win situation.

[HoulihansTX]

Game
Orlando +7.5
Orlando ML
190Over
1st Half
Cavs -4 w/ 94Over

Gl to all

[Karayilan9]

All the pressure is on Cavs, Magic had no pressure coming into the series, I think Cavs are a victim of their own success, nobody was giving Orlando a chance ignoring everything in favor of them. It seems nothing much has changed, Orlando are being written off again, the pressure is being piled on the Cavs to come out and not just win but trash Orlando.

This is crunch time for the Cavs, they havn't handled the pressure well, I'll take a little of the winnings made on Magic and put a bit on the ML @ +400 and the spread, crazier things have happened.

[Flyers09]

i cant believe the line is even at 7.5

that is unreal....magic should cover that spread easily and even win the game....but the over under has me stomped


like i said before the cavs r the capitals of the nhl...caps have one player ovechkin and one player cant send a team to the finals........cans have lebron, he cant carry his team singlely to the finals nor win tonight....

[head_strong]

The most interesting/telling Prop to me is the Largest Lead of the Game Over/Under 17.5 (-115), not something I'm betting but if I'm reading this correctly I think the Cavs reach this mark then hold on to the cover in the end. I'm considering a play on the Adjusted Line Cavs -2.5 (-250) @ SB.....

[Buckeye]

Call it a feeling but I think Cleveland wins and covers the 7.5 tonight and the game also goes under. Orlando is due for a bad shooting night and I don't see them coming out with any fire or intensity since thay are up 3 to 1 in the series.

[polishkielbasa10]

all the pressure again falls on the cavs...they haven't been in this situation before...I think panic will eventually set in and will turn into a Jabron vs. orlando down the stretch with his teammates just sitting around and watching him take 25 ft jumpers..

[SmackdownV]

Game
Orlando +7.5
Orlando ML
190Over
1st Half
Cavs -4 w/ 94Over

Gl to all

I just booked your plays.......

Yes that means I'm trailing you my brother.

Good Luck to us!!!!

[BigMoneyMan]

Does this mean the line is where the books want it to stay?

Looks like the books dont want to give a Cleveland cover anymore of an edge.

When was the last time this happened?

Check out the dissonance on---- http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...-betting-chart

Huge aint it???

And there is some Reverse Line Movement on the Lakers/Nuggs Spread

Since I am the master of line movement I need to correct you on two things.

1. There are only 63% on Orlando tonight not huge amount.
2. The original line opened at -8 and while most have it at -7.5, some have it at -7.

Not you fault just getting your info from the wrong place. FYI Magic WIN tonight. GO MAGIC

[HoulihansTX]

Since I am the master of line movement I need to correct you on two things.

1. There are only 63% on Orlando tonight not huge amount.
2. The original line opened at -8 and while most have it at -7.5, some have it at -7.

Not you fault just getting your info from the wrong place. FYI Magic WIN tonight. GO MAGIC

Thanks for clarifying for me. But were do you get your stats from?? Ohh yea Go MAGIC!!

[losturmarbles]

Since I am the master of line movement I need to correct you on two things.

1. There are only 63% on Orlando tonight not huge amount.
2. The original line opened at -8 and while most have it at -7.5, some have it at -7.

Not you fault just getting your info from the wrong place. FYI Magic WIN tonight. GO MAGIC

master of line movement, i am the master of time. the post you are quoting is from over a day ago. and late last night it was 76%.

also im not sure what original line you are talking about, but the line didnt open at -8.

[losturmarbles]

and to address the OP, the line is/was a sharp line.

why would the book throw out a 7.5, and then move it more than a half point just because one side was getting 3/4 of the action? the books want to balance their sheets, but if they move the line one way and then move it another, that could be much more worse for the book to pay out both sides when the score middles them.

think of it this way. you bet a total, over 195. late news you find out someone isnt playing. the total drops to 190. would you go and play the under 190?

[HoulihansTX]

and to address the OP, the line is/was a sharp line.

why would the book throw out a 7.5, and then move it more than a half point just because one side was getting 3/4 of the action? the books want to balance their sheets, but if they move the line one way and then move it another, that could be much more worse for the book to pay out both sides when the score middles them.

think of it this way. you bet a total, over 195. late news you find out someone isnt playing. the total drops to 190. would you go and play the under 190?

See I though It was something like this. If the books move the line too much They risk having to payout too many people that were able to middle their bets. Thank you

[SexyMit]

Yes so I think it doesn't matter Cleveland is up at least 10 by halftime!

[head_strong]

The most interesting/telling Prop to me is the Largest Lead of the Game Over/Under 17.5 (-115), not something I'm betting but if I'm reading this correctly I think the Cavs reach this mark then hold on to the cover in the end. I'm considering a play on the Adjusted Line Cavs -2.5 (-250) @ SB.....

I'd say I read that prop correctly....Cavs up 18 early hope they can hold the lead.

[HoulihansTX]

Wrong bigtime. On to tomorrow.