Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 11.28.06

**Jay Edgar** · 11-28-06, 01:04 AM

Numbers now complete in top post.

GL everybody

**Jay Edgar** · 11-28-06, 11:24 AM

ATL is 12% off at +265
CHA is 11% off at +270
TOR is 8% off at +169
NY is 14% off at +280
MIN is 14% off at +375
MEM is 14% off at +385
LAC is 4% off at +235
POR is 11% off at +115
MIL is 4% off at +285

Just to jinx these, I'll note here that I put all of the season's 5%+ off plays into a master spreadsheet this morning to get the fully accurate YTD results, which are:

Teams closing 5% or more off the Edgar ML (Oct 31-Nov 26)
SU 55-82, +20.05 units
ATS 76-61, +11.95 units

**nosuzieno** · 11-28-06, 11:46 AM

Would you please explain the above? For instance, Atl is 12% off. Does that make them a viable ATS play for or against? Thank you for the consistent and quality work

**Jay Edgar** · 11-28-06, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by nosuzieno

Would you please explain the above? For instance, Atl is 12% off. Does that make them a viable ATS play for or against? Thank you for the consistent and quality work

Sure thing. The listed team is the one that the Edgar ML rates higher than the actual ML does. ("TOR is 8% off at +169" means that TOR would be the play.) When the gap is 5% or more, it's a play under the system. For tracking purposes, I'm counting teams as a play if the closing Pinny ML is 5% or more different from the Edgar ML. The "%" refers to a team's chance to win the game. For example, the Edgar ML has TOR at 44.6% to win the game and the midpoint of the current Pinny ML (+169/-179) has them at 36.5% to win the game. That's the 8% differential.

The ATS piece is simply tracking what those same teams have done ATS if you made a 1-unit play on the closing pointspread -- no matter what the closing pointspread is.

Another way I could phrase this midday post would be to give the ML at which that 5% gap first appears, for example:

"ATL is a play at +185 or better"

instead of

"ATL is 12% off at [the current line of] +265."

**nosuzieno** · 11-28-06, 12:38 PM

Thank you for explaining that. I assume if ML is in direct proportion to point spread, is it a fair assumption that if ML is off under your system than the spread is as well, making it a viable play? Issues beyond mention have me currently only playing ats nba through a local because ML's aren't an option. Or, is the discrepancy more likely to show profit on ML plays similar to dogs in baseball? Hope that makes sense...

**Jay Edgar** · 11-28-06, 02:02 PM

I think it's a fair assumption that the pointspread will be off in rough correlation to the ML.

In October, with big help from Ganchrow, we worked up a conversion chart for pointspreads to moneylines and vice versa. That's the chart I consult when I do that overnight post of Edgar Lines -- you know, the one at the top here that begins "WAS 3.9/160 over ATL." (WAS by 3.9 points and a ML of -160 over ATL) The power ratings have WAS at 61.5% to win the game, which is 159.9/100 or a -160 ML. We found over the last 15 years that home teams favored by 4 win the game about 62% of the time, thus I get a pointspread for WAS of -3.9 to go with the moneyline of -160.

(I use separate home and road ML/pointspread conversion charts because there are big differences -- for example, with those 4-point favorites, road teams at that spread have won 66% of the time, not 61.5, over the last 15 years.)

As you can see from the YTD results, playing the pointspread is profitable overall YTD, but not quite as profitable as the ML -- you cash 21 more tickets over the first 137 plays, but you miss out on some nice +300, +400, and even +815 (CHA @ SA) winners.

**aca** · 11-28-06, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

Numbers now complete in top post.

GL everybody

GL for your system, Jay!

**nosuzieno** · 11-28-06, 09:43 PM

Thanks again for your efforts and explanation...

**moses millsap** · 11-28-06, 10:06 PM

Thank god those Bobcats finally were able to make their free throws down the stretch. +280

**bigboydan** · 11-28-06, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by OWNED

Thank god those Bobcats finally were able to make their free throws down the stretch. +280

I bet you were sweating that one out at the end

**Illusion** · 11-28-06, 10:15 PM

I am happy Washington had nearly 30 turnovers tonight because I had the ATL tonight.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-28-06, 10:56 PM

couple more still to go, but, provisionally . . . . .

**moses millsap** · 11-28-06, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

couple more still to go, but, provisionally . . . . .

Wolves +360 had a good chance, they blew two chances to take lead in the 4th on silly possessions and then just fell apart after Shane nailed those back to back 3s from the same spot

Grizzlies +411 looks like a banker though barring a miraculous comeback. Up 10 with 30.3 left

**moses millsap** · 11-29-06, 01:00 AM

The Kobe Stopper comes in and saves the +290 ML

**Jay Edgar** · 11-29-06, 01:02 AM

Nice!

Who says we can't perform BxB?
Two top-flight nights in a row.

EDGAR LINE ML vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more differential)

ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 3-4, +4.35u
(ATL, CHA, TOR, NY, MIN, MEM, POR)
(MIL, who many of us had, just missed qualifying by the official closing Pinny line)
YTD 58-86, +24.40u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 5-2, +2.90
YTD 81-63 (.563), +14.85u

**moses millsap** · 11-29-06, 01:12 AM

Gotta love these big dog days. Great work JE

Can't say I did any work tonight, but I'm happy with the end result. LOL.