CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[esz04]

From what I can tell, 83% of the public is on the over. The line is doing exactly what it should be doing.

[SmackdownV]

I already put my entire bankroll on the over.

I would have put my entire bankroll on the over up to 185.

Me and CK gonna be makin some $$$$$$$$$$$

[Vreston]

Where are you seeing 177.5. I'm getting 179 at the greek

It's at bwin. Last checked when I made the post.

Wait I just checked again. They moved it up to 179 too. And I didn't play it.
They also moved the spread to Cleveland -12.5
The same thing happened to me last night. I waited and the line went up on the over in the Boston game.

CK do you think I should still go with this one?

[wangichu]

sweetjones55,

This is as close as you can get to a PC Play. One of the group went awol and decided to take the side in this game tonight.

wang, is this the only game tonight?

yup... and on a personal note, i'm adding CLE -4 1Q, that's where the domination starts

final card for me:

CLE -4 1Q
CLE -7 1st half
OVER 177.5

[wangichu]

It's at bwin. Last checked when I made the post.

Wait I just checked again. They moved it up to 179 too. And I didn't play it.
They also moved the spread to Cleveland -12.5
The same thing happened to me last night. I waited and the line went up on the over in the Boston game.

CK do you think I should still go with this one?

that's just good line movement. Any time the books try to make it harder for you to play the total you want to play, it's generally because you're on the right track. The fact that it moved up to 179 is just the books conceding that it is the right play. I'd say you're still safe to hit it and if you're worried, buy it back down to 178 or 177.5. It can make a difference in the playoffs, but it shouldn't outright deter you from making money.

[Vreston]

I already played it at over 179. I can't buy points with my book so I just took it.

I also think the Cavs team total over 95.5 sounds good. If the game is going to go over then they have to cover those points too I think. Do you agree?

Thanks for the advice though. You're right. It does mean we are on the right track.

[SlicWilly3]

Liking the Hawks and the over tonight. Took it on a parlay and bought a couple pts.
Hawks +14 1/2 and OVER 178 1/2

These teams have played 8 times this season and the only game won by double digits was the last game.
Atlanta won 2 and the Cavs have won 6. One of the Cavs wins came by a single pt too.
I just don't see the blow out tonight at all. I think the Cavs def win...But by around 6-10. I think 12 1/2 is too much and 14 1/2 is very comfortable.

Most of those 8 games went over too. 5 out of the 8 went easily over the 179 total of the game tonight.
I expect something like Cavs 98 Atlanta 90

[wangichu]

Liking the Hawks and the over tonight. Took it on a parlay and bought a couple pts.
Hawks +14 1/2 and OVER 178 1/2

These teams have played 8 times this season and the only game won by double digits was the last game.
Atlanta won 2 and the Cavs have won 6. One of the Cavs wins came by a single pt too.
I just don't see the blow out tonight at all. I think the Cavs def win...But by around 6-10. I think 12 1/2 is too much and 14 1/2 is very comfortable.

Most of those 8 games went over too. 5 out of the 8 went easily over the 179 total of the game tonight.
I expect something like Cavs 98 Atlanta 90

no they haven't, they've played 5 times. and the first game of the regular season was a double digit win for the cavs (110-96). Atlanta won the second game of the series SU, in atlanta, the cavs got the 1 point win in the 3rd game also @ ATL and then the hawks covered their 3rd game in this series in the 4th regular season meeting at 102-96

[laxdjock]

It is at 181 @ 5dimes.

I think I'm going to take CLE 1Q and/or CLE 1H.

[SlicWilly3]

no they haven't, they've played 5 times. and the first game of the regular season was a double digit win for the cavs (110-96). Atlanta won the second game of the series SU, in atlanta, the cavs got the 1 point win in the 3rd game also @ ATL and then the hawks covered their 3rd game in this series in the 4th regular season meeting at 102-96

Sorry about that.....I was looking at 2008-2009 Head to Head info.
So I went back to Jan '08......They have played 8 times since then...
My bad.....5 times "this" season and the last 3 of "last" year

[SmackdownV]

I told you.....

Take the over all the way to 185.

The Over is MONEY.....

6-2 the past two nights..........Artest stays in that game.....I'm 7-1........

ATL +12.5 CASH MONEY
OVER 179 ALL IN CASH MONEY.......Already laid the wood of $2,800.00 on this play.....that's my ENTIRE bankroll left.

The Dirty Birds are gonna come play tonight......

The NBA....where the "backdoor cover over when you don't expect it amazing" happens.

[SmackdownV]

I did however go all in $2,800 on 177.5.....

But I would have laid it all the way to 185.

No Diggity.....No Doubt

[jasonjep]

Line just went to 181

[corona]

The NBA....where the "backdoor cover over when you don't expect it amazing" happens.

or

"where clevelands defense holds atlantas crappy offense to 68 points" happens.

i know everyone loves this play, and i threw a little at it. but i dont trust it nearly that much.

[SmackdownV]

Not two games in a row.....

The NBA is Fixed Brother......

National Bookie Association

[TheLock]

182 on wsex right now

[cocknocker]

All of which means that the UNDER is the appropriate play today and we've all been had. That is a 4.5 point movement in one direction which is always a bad thing.

[wangichu]

you already read my mind on our playlist. Raefer's gone and while that should really matter, some how the line still dropped at -4.5, meaning their pushing bettors to hit the celtics, something they will quickly regret. As orlando is 4-1 ATS at the half against boston, it shows that they are a first half team that wins by getting out to early leads and sustaining them, which i fully expect to happen here. Not that you needed help on this, but while i still plan on looking at this game before playing it myself, all signs point to orlando by 10.

[cocknocker]

You mean Orlando by 16. This one will be a blowout

[laxdjock]

I laid off the OVER because that line movement is not cool.

[cocknocker]

Well we still have a shot at our over homies. Hopefully Cleveland doesn't start to slow things down in the 2nd half with such a big lead!

Good cash on the 1st half Cleveland bet wang!

[isiah121]

If Hawks continues to make baskets, then the OVER should be good.

[jellobiafra]

Chance for a nice middle with the 2H total at 91. If it goes between 84 and 91 we could double. Outside we push minus the juice. Just a thought.

[cocknocker]

If Hawks continues to make baskets, then the OVER should be good.

That would be a big IF. They seem lost out on the floor

[SmackdownV]

CK....they gettin scared......

That OVA is MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep......$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Bills Homies!!!

[isiah121]

The previous game Cleveland was only up by 5 at the half, so they came out playing very good defense on the Hawks in the 2nd half forcing Atlanta to a low scoring. Since Cleveland is leading by 20+ today, I don't think they would do the same, unless they bookies paid them LOL.

[cnleaf]

ORLANDO is 10-4 with Anthony Johnson as a starting point guard

[gambit718]

With Smith back we should see some POINTS... Lets go OVER. 84 points is not alot.

[cnleaf]

taking some light units on 2nd half UNDER. Just to fade myself on the heavy whole game

[wangichu]

Chance for a nice middle with the 2H total at 91. If it goes between 84 and 91 we could double. Outside we push minus the juice. Just a thought.

that's exactly what i did, for about 35% of my over wager. Either way, it's already been a good day. Good chance for CK and I to gain a little ground in the challenge too as we hit the first half wager and both teams have the over, so unless the hawks get it back down to 13, i think we're tied.

[wangichu]

If Hawks continues to make baskets, then the OVER should be good.

i think there's a better chance of seeing the cavs hit 110 and the hawks just double their 35 points from the first half. They're getting hella frusterated and looking like their ready to quit on this game and get geared up for game 3 at home.

[cocknocker]

The only thing that worries me is that I have seen what Atlanta is doing before. They are chalking this one up

[chucksmith]

Without Horford and Williams, Atl is absolutely putrid. No heart. Woodson is a joke, too. What adjustments has he made?

[wangichu]

wow, this one is just barely holding pace... that over is still hanging on

[cocknocker]

It's gonna be a foot race, wang. Fasten you seatbelt.