CK/wangichu's Think Tank

jcygts6 · 05-03-09, 01:18 AM

I have the lakers and Denver in a 4 point .....2 team teaser.

Denver -2
Lakers- 4

Think this teaser will get it done? Or should I hedge one of the bets?

Killer Chihuahua · 05-03-09, 01:25 AM

I love the rockets at +8....the playoffs is a defferent beast, low post present always has an impact! dont think they win in la game one but can stay within the number.......no free chicken dinner!!!!

JayRow · 05-03-09, 01:28 AM

Where do you see the #s on the statement "86% of bettors are on the Lakers and the line went down to 8 from 8.5."

Thanks.

JR

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 02:01 AM

Sportsinsights JayRow

NBA Hero · 05-03-09, 02:10 AM

ck are you on denver for the series.dallas will go back to their losing ways.denver will go back not covering

corona · 05-03-09, 02:33 AM

Originally posted by NBA Hero

ck are you on denver for the series.dallas will go back to their losing ways.denver will go back not covering

denver was 3-1 ats against dallas this year (and 6-1 the past 2 years), 50-36 ats on the season.

imho not covering went away with camby's lazy ass, and the superiority issue iverson gave the team.

wangichu · 05-03-09, 04:42 AM

yeah, i think i'm flipping my stance on the mavs. the halftime scoring averages between these two teams head to head this year is 55.25 to 47.75 denver over dallas. That makes me think that in a half of basketball, denver is fairly consistently able to show that they are the better team. They have had a problem holding those leads scoring 46.75 to dallas's 50. This tells me that dallas has the jumpshooters to bring this one back within reach. Either way, denver swept the season series, even though they only won 1 game by more than 3 and two games by only 2. One thing that i alway trash on about dallas is their inability to take physical teams and denver has become a very physical team and should get in the mav's heads and really bring it to them. When your franchise player (Dirk) is a p***y and his best defensive play is a flop, you know you may have issues against a much more physical team.

Personally, i'll probably think about denver first half, but for the purposes of the game spread, i think i'm with you know on picks 1, 2, and 3. The RLM on Houston is sexy, and even though the lakers were a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS during the season, the first two games featured a houston lineup compromised by injury, whereas the last two matchups were considerably closer. Also, the rockets have not been dogs of more than 7 all year, and as far as i noticed over the last couple years. I just think that 8 is too many points to give the rockets anywhere.

HOU +8.5

holding off on the denver first half, that's a better play at a point where i'm a little less convinced as to what will happen, but right here, i had to think that dallas won't lose by more than 5 as they did only once in the four matchups. this is as high as spread as these two teams have had between them.

***as mentioned on the challenge page, i'm on DAL +6.5 ***

therber2 · 05-03-09, 08:38 AM

Houston +8 for sure. I'm puttin a little on the ML as well. Rockets counter the Lakers like nothin else; they've done it before, and they sure as hell are going to put up fight in this one. Denver wants this. I'm playing them. GL guys.

Jimbo42 · 05-03-09, 08:42 AM

Very nice writeup Wang! Denver HAS been a first half half beast through the latter part of the season...

kevindakota00 · 05-03-09, 08:56 AM

sorry ck, im pounding the lakers like everyone else, i see a blowout. a play on the rockets in houston will prob. be a play for me.

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 09:45 AM

Okay then wang. We will ride with the Rockets and the Nuggets too. I will announce our picks on the challenge page!

Houston+8.5
Denver-6

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 09:55 AM

One thing is for certain. Teams that endure long tedious 7 game series are toast in the 1st game of the next series. So the next 2 picks are set in stone and all that we are waiting on is the lines for Cleveland and for Orlando in game 1 of those series!

NBA Hero · 05-03-09, 10:23 AM

thanks for the PM message ck.on denver for the first game also.how do you project the orl series. it seems orl didnt have a good ball rotation nor shooting from outside at 1st round. while bos has got to be banged up if not tired from the extended minutes they keep on playing with the bench players only deciding to show up on game3 and 7.i guess the important thing to consider is orl can push the ball and keep on running on opportunities that they get the defensive reb. and if they cant, get perkins and davis in foul trouble, cause moore sucks

SoonerGreg · 05-03-09, 10:27 AM

i know I'm in the minority on this but I'm rolling with the Mavs +6 and would be shocked to see them win straight up. These teams have played extremely close this year and the Mavs were without their best player (Josh Howard) for two of the matchups. The last month of the season and a 4-1 series win vs Spurs has shown they have something going on. Rick Carlisle is a great coach and is no longer force feeding the ball to Dirk. As a result the bench has emerged and everyone can see that J.Howard and J.Terry are what determines if Dallas wins or loses. Mavs in 6.

bkny2cnc · 05-03-09, 11:28 AM

CK, I wanted to know if Horford being out concerned you or is Moon and J.Oneal going to hurt Miami on the road?

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 11:55 AM

I am actually playing the Hawks-3.5 with a 2 point buy

MarkHammond · 05-03-09, 12:21 PM

Orlando line is out

Magic +3

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 01:24 PM

Challenge Pick is in order for that one!

But anyway, wangichu hits me on the text line and indicates that he likes Dallas and the points. He points to the fact that although Denver won all of the games this year, all of them except one were really close. I had my gripes about the game from the outset, making only a pedestrian type wager on Denver because I didn't like it that much. Now I know why. If Vegas were to win money off of this game, it would have to be that Dallas would win it straight up. Think about it 94% of the public are playing Denvers' moneyline and 64% are playing them on the spread. If Dallas wins it the books make a KILLING

Dallas+6.5

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 01:25 PM

Orlando+3 is a PC Play already. I've already gotten the call wang. I have to do it now. I'm gonna list this as our next play. I'm pounding this one HEAVY.

cockblocker · 05-03-09, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Challenge Pick is in order for that one!

But anyway, wangichu hits me on the text line and indicates that he likes Dallas and the points. He points to the fact that although Denver won all of the games this year, all of them except one were really close. I had my gripes about the game from the outset, making only a pedestrian type wager on Denver because I didn't like it that much. Now I know why. If Vegas were to win money off of this game, it would have to be that Dallas would win it straight up. Think about it 94% of the public are playing Denvers' moneyline and 64% are playing them on the spread. If Dallas wins it the books make a KILLING

Dallas+6.5

You think Dallas wins outright? Why don't you go heavy on the Mavs then?

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by cockblocker

You think Dallas wins outright? Why don't you go heavy on the Mavs then?

Orlando is a better road team. I prefer that when putting up the kind of money that I put up when I go heavy. Every game is not a game to go heavy on. You have my blessing to put as much money as you can on Dallas if that is your wish. As for me...in a word..no. But I did go up quite a bit over the wager that I originally placed on Denver since this is now a hedge situation.

laxdjock · 05-03-09, 02:03 PM

Why not take DEN 1st Half -3.5 and avoid a DAL run in the 2nd half?

jtnguyen79 · 05-03-09, 02:13 PM

cockblocker and then a cocknocker....man good luck to the 2 teams in the competition looks like a good match

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 02:33 PM

Cleveland-ANYTHING game 1 vs Atlanta

wangichu · 05-03-09, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Cleveland-ANYTHING game 1 vs Atlanta

quite possibly the easiest play of round 2 thus far. No playoff team flops harder on the road than atlanta and no team dominates at home like cleveland. Punch that ticket asap.

IfDntmk$itDntmkc · 05-03-09, 03:55 PM

Boyz, being a BIG Dallas fan, they struggle in 3red qtrs. Den -3 is the play. GL Mafia!!!

peterpan19 · 05-03-09, 04:26 PM

lets hope Dallas comes back in the 4th qtr here today...just would like to see Dirk win here today...

GL

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 04:49 PM

Denver is beer canning the Mavs now. Oh well, back to the drawing board, lol!

MarkHammond · 05-03-09, 04:49 PM

should have stuck with your original feelings on the Nuggs

MarkHammond · 05-03-09, 04:50 PM

Cavs are -11 for tuesday

KingKing · 05-03-09, 04:56 PM

Thank you CK and BOL!!

wangichu · 05-03-09, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Denver is beer canning the Mavs now. Oh well, back to the drawing board, lol!

yeah, that was just incredibly sloppy ball played by the mavs in the middle of the 4th quarter. They had our cover in hand and just threw it away... over and over and over... and over again.

I'm definitely on denver in the next game, i think this was the mav's chance to take one of these first two, getting a hot start, melo in foul trouble all game, i just don't think the stars will aline for them to piss it away again. I'll wait for the spread and movement and such, but right now i'm calling denver to cover again in game 2

MarkHammond · 05-03-09, 05:25 PM

Denver -6 is out for tuesday

cocknocker · 05-03-09, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by wangichu

yeah, that was just incredibly sloppy ball played by the mavs in the middle of the 4th quarter. They had our cover in hand and just threw it away... over and over and over... and over again.

I'm definitely on denver in the next game, i think this was the mav's chance to take one of these first two, getting a hot start, melo in foul trouble all game, i just don't think the stars will aline for them to piss it away again. I'll wait for the spread and movement and such, but right now i'm calling denver to cover again in game 2

The only way that we are to take Denver in game 2 is if the initial spread is larger by a point and a half or more.