Originally posted by Ebe
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SBRoddsComment -
You've got it backwards.Originally posted by EbeComment -
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Reverse Line Movement is when the public pounds one side but the line moves in the direction of the other team.
For example if it would have been gone from Cleveland -1 to a pk with 65% on Cleveland, that would have been RLM.Comment -
Despite the public pounding Cleveland, they opened at -2 (or -2.5) and closed at -1. Their ML went from -128 to -109.Originally posted by Ebe
Boston would be the exact definition of an RLM play. Yet Boston got ass pounded.Comment -
Ok, I was looking from top to bottom, now I see what you are saying. I stand corrected.Comment -
For Wednesday:
NO +4 (-105) (8.4U to win 8)
BOS +2.5 (-115) (4.6U to win 4)
CHA +1.5 (-110) (2.2U to win 2)
Fukking Pelicans owe me.Comment -
Something I have noticed in NBA is it is backwards. In case of NBA RLM the team that it looks like Vegas is trying to induce action on ends up covering.
In NCAAM its the other way around.Comment -
Yeah, I can see why you got confused.Originally posted by Ebe
Use SBRodds. It's a great resource.Comment -
Man i liked Cav's (Love's revenge factor and other stuff), but i saw majority of public was on Cav's, so i didn't pull the trigger, because of that and also because stupid Boston team is overachieving this year....Originally posted by No coincidences
But 1 thing is certain, public DOESN'T lose 100% of the time, they also win a few times...
We can use line movement and consensus to help us cap, but only as additional tools.
Just my 2 centsComment -
NC...Pelicans r killing me too. Those fools. Too good to be 6-18.Comment -
Take a look at Suns, dubs coming off the long east coast roadie. GL on the plays, i'm most likely going back to the well with Pelicans too.Comment -
One game. Huge sample size...Originally posted by No coincidences
To think that over the long haul getting good numbers is meaningless is illogical.
In that case, why do you use Bovada lines so often? Close your account and play at a shop with reduced vig.Comment -
Good to see you doing well NoCo. Keep up the good work my man.
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NO owes me too. I'm scared though lol that was one of those sickening half point losses last time man. I wanted to jump from a clocktower.Comment -
We all remember games where we either lost because we didn't get the best number or won because we did get it, so it is important in that sense. Winning those extra 3-4 games a season can make a big difference in the final record so I definitely try to work to get the best number I can. If it didn't matter we'd all sell points in every game.Originally posted by t-wizzle
But the idea that if you get +4 and the team closes +2 then it means that it's almost certain they'll win is silly. Not saying anyone on here actually believes that though. But if someone does it's misguided. Getting the best number is just something you do in case the game gets close so you have that extra cushion if it's needed.Comment -
I don't think Coin is really talking about getting the best #. To me is seems like he is more talking about line movement. Obviously he understands that when you get a good # it is only going to save you on a very small percentage of plays. Maybe 2-3 plays out of 100? It's more the fact that you can't really predict movement anymore, which is true. Lines moves have been worthless for a a few years now imo. The only line moves I think are even worth watching anymore is late money at pinnacle, and even that is questionable.Comment -
No Coin yesterday there were 6 games where public were 60% or more.
What happened ?
Public won 5 of 6.
Guess today Vegas will rape them back lolComment -
Yeah, that was a brutal night. I think the Pelicans were the only dogs to cover?Originally posted by NBA ManiacComment -
Yeah, pretty much this. Though I think getting the best number is a lot more irrelevant than people think. Like bad beats/losses, people tend to remember the time when they got a +4.5 on a game that closed at +3 and the team lost by 4. But for every example like that, there are tons of plays that see similar line movement where the number you got is completely and utterly irrelevant. It's all a sell job to get gullible people to bet early and often, and feel better about themselves occasionally when they beat the closer.Originally posted by KRITComment -
1-2, +1.2U last night
50-39, +32.3U thread
CHA +1.5 (-103) (2.16U to win 2)Comment -
Discussing line movement and getting the best number are two entirely different conversations. Not really sure why you can't seem to separate the two.Comment -
Of course they're different -- but in the grand scheme of things, equally irrelevant.Originally posted by t-wizzleComment -
Really want to add to this at +2.5, but it's a N6 and N8 for TK.Originally posted by No coincidencesComment -
Like Cavs tonight, but pass.Comment -
You should hop on CHA +2.5 to make back whatever you lost on em last night. That's what I'm doing.Comment -
whenever i let what others are thinking about a game prevent me from going bigger or even betting it at all. I usually regret it.Comment -
Could not disagree any more but no point in arguing it.Originally posted by No coincidencesComment -
I caught this at +2.5 but Jeremy Lin's hair....what the %#^#^?Originally posted by No coincidences
GLComment -
I've been beating closing numbers for years in multiple sports. It's netted me virtually nothing. Of course you technically *want* to get the best number possible. That goes without saying. But it doesn't mean anything when all is said and done. You certainly aren't proving anything if you consistently beat a closing number.Originally posted by t-wizzleComment -
ATL +3.5 (-107) (2.14U to win 2)
PHI +6.5 (-110) (1.1U to win 1)
Boring card.
Also looking at Portland and the Clip Joint.Comment -
Make the Sixers 3.3 to win 3. Eff it.Originally posted by No coincidences
Also:
BROOK +10.5 (-110) (3.3U to win 3)Comment -
For a Friday card, very weak. GL on the plays.Comment -
When you find yourself backing Philly and Brooklyn....Originally posted by KRIT
A) you're a degenerate
B) it's a horrible cardComment -
If Philly, then yes, but Brooklyn got some great spots to bet with confindence once in 2-3 weeks or so.Originally posted by No coincidencesComment -
Whyd you hop on this? I thought there was some reverse line movement early on and hopped on it and also wanted to bet on an inflated line live but now I'm not so sure if the movement was abnormalOriginally posted by No coincidencesComment
