2015-16 NBA plays

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 12:35 AM

4-1, +11.3U tonight
48-36, +33.7U thread

Oh, what might have been.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 12:42 AM

For Tuesday:

BOS +2.5 (-115) (4.6 to win 4)
LAL +3 (-115) (2.3U to win 2)

Might add to the C's if I can get a 3 or 3.5 at some point.

Ebe · 12-15-15, 01:29 AM

You got balls backing LAL NC

Good luck

t-bone · 12-15-15, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

4-1, +11.3U tonight
48-36, +33.7U thread

Oh, what might have been.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by t-bone

Appreciate it, T.

mlb · 12-15-15, 03:49 PM

I'll take the blame on New Orl - I have been on a bad run the last month after doing well in every sport for half a year ... ugh

Sixla · 12-15-15, 06:07 PM

good work coiner. i nailed that pacers live bet also after Tor went off

paco · 12-15-15, 06:45 PM

Nice season so far coins

NBA Maniac · 12-15-15, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

4-1, +11.3U tonight
48-36, +33.7U thread

Oh, what might have been.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by paco

Nice season so far coins

Thanks buddy.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by mlb

I'll take the blame on New Orl - I have been on a bad run the last month after doing well in every sport for half a year ... ugh

We win that bet way, way more often than not. Or at least, that's what everyone always tells me.

Originally posted by Sixla

good work coiner. i nailed that pacers live bet also after Tor went off

Thank you.

NBA Maniac · 12-15-15, 07:18 PM

Funny thing i like Denver and Lakers....
I just can't touch in Cleveland @ Boston game. Unless, some intesting live number.
But i have to go sleep soon.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by NBA Maniac

Funny thing i like Denver and Lakers....
I just can't touch in Cleveland @ Boston game. Unless, some intesting live number.
But i have to go sleep soon.

I beat the closer. That supposedly means a lot.

t-wizzle · 12-15-15, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I beat the closer. That supposedly means a lot.

Why wouldn't it?

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Why wouldn't it?

I rest my case.

I'm seriously under 50% in plays where I beat the closing number. Not only is it irrelevant -- it's borderline counterproductive in this day and age.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 09:29 PM

I got Louisiana-Lafayette earlier at +11.5. They closed at +9.5. They're getting curb stomped. Nearly every time I get at least a full point on where a number closes, it's a loser.

Fernburn74 · 12-15-15, 09:31 PM

Lakers at +5 now

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 09:38 PM

Georgetown opened at -8.5 and closed at -10.5 vs. Monmouth. They're down 15.

The examples are endless every single night. Beating the closing number means absolutely nothing anymore.

Seto · 12-15-15, 09:38 PM

Getting the best number in the grand scheme of things only matters when the game middles... Which happens what, 5% of the time? Less?

Other than that my feeling is it's completely meaningless. The way the line is moving does not indicate who will win the game.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Getting the best number in the grand scheme of things only matters when the game middles... Which happens what, 5% of the time? Less?

Other than that my feeling is it's completely meaningless. The way the line is moving does not indicate who will win the game.

It is. Maybe it used to matter, but this ain't 2004 anymore.

Seto · 12-15-15, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

It is. Maybe it used to matter, but this ain't 2004 anymore.

I used to value stuff like line movement and "reading" lines but I've basically thrown it out the window since last season. Every time I used it in the 2013/14 season it seemed to backfire.

No coincidences · 12-15-15, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by Seto

I used to value stuff like line movement and "reading" lines but I've basically thrown it out the window since last season. Every time I used it in the 2013/14 season it seemed to backfire.

It's been useless for at least that long. I started noticing a significant shift around 2012. Yet every "pro" tries to sell the same, tired bullshit (if you beat the closing number long term, you win). Books have changed their approach, basically because everyone and their grandmother has all of the "inside" info at their finger tips now. They've got to be smarter about line movement.

KRIT · 12-15-15, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Georgetown opened at -8.5 and closed at -10.5 vs. Monmouth. They're down 15.

The examples are endless every single night. Beating the closing number means absolutely nothing anymore.

My argument against that would be that books opened that line low in the first place knowing it would get hit up. But like Seto said, line moves mean jack shit now.

t-wizzle · 12-15-15, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I got Louisiana-Lafayette earlier at +11.5. They closed at +9.5. They're getting curb stomped. Nearly every time I get at least a full point on where a number closes, it's a loser.

Game is 40 minutes.

t-wizzle · 12-15-15, 11:02 PM

Why would getting the best number not be a good thing? I mean seriously...

No coincidences · 12-16-15, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Why would getting the best number not be a good thing? I mean seriously...

I'm not saying it's good or bad. I'm saying it's completely and utterly irrelevant.

Good thing I got the Lakers at +3. They closed at +4. Yet I won that bet with a bad number.

Meaningless.

No coincidences · 12-16-15, 01:09 AM

Celtics opened at +2.5 and closed at +1. Blown out.
T'Wolves opened at -5.5 and closed at -6.5. Blown out.
Lakers opened at +2 and closed at +4. Rolled.

Ebe · 12-16-15, 01:24 AM

Are you factoring the consensus into all this?

Its not just about what direction the line moves

No coincidences · 12-16-15, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by Ebe

Are you factoring the consensus into all this?

Its not just about what direction the line moves

Public was on Cavs big if that's what you mean. Nuggets/T'Wolves looks pretty split.

"Consensus" is also irrelevant.

Ebe · 12-16-15, 01:32 AM

NC do you ever take RLM into account? Im asking only because Im genuinely curious pal.

No coincidences · 12-16-15, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by Ebe

NC do you ever take RLM into account? Im asking only because Im genuinely curious pal.

You mean, for instance, the "RLM" that moved the Cavs from -2.5 to -1? LOL.

Ebe · 12-16-15, 01:56 AM

According to scoresandodds that line opened at 1.5

No coincidences · 12-16-15, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Ebe

According to scoresandodds that line opened at 1.5

This is Pinnacle. I actually saw a few 2.5's early, but a lot of people don't consider any number to be a "true" number before Pinnacle and/or CRIS post their sides.

Boston's ML opened at +116 at Pinny and closed at -101. You mean that kind of "RLM"?

TIME

CLE

BOS

12/15 06:54 PM	-1 -105	+1 -105
12/15 06:01 PM	-1 -110	+1 +100
12/15 02:18 PM	-1 -108	+1 -102
12/15 02:08 PM	-1 -102	+1 -108
12/15 02:06 PM	+1 -112	-1 +102
12/15 01:57 PM	+1 -106	-1 -104
12/15 01:56 PM	-1 +103	+1 -114
12/15 12:52 PM	-1 +100	+1 -110
12/15 12:32 PM	-1 -101	+1 -109
12/15 11:46 AM	-1 +100	+1 -110
12/15 11:38 AM	-1 -103	+1 -107
12/15 11:27 AM	-1 -104	+1 -106
12/15 11:24 AM	-1 -106	+1 -104
12/15 11:08 AM	-1 -107	+1 -103
12/15 11:07 AM	-1 -108	+1 -102
12/15 11:05 AM	-2 +101	+2 -111
12/15 10:55 AM	-2 -105	+2 -105
12/15 06:10 AM	-2 -108	+2 -102
12/15 02:40 AM	-2 -105	+2 -105
12/15 02:26 AM	-2 -108	+2 -102
12/15 02:02 AM	-2 -106	+2 -104
12/14 11:26 PM	-2 -108	+2 -102
12/14 11:00 PM	-2 -106	+2 -104
12/14 10:29 PM	-2 -108	+2 -102
12/14 03:53 PM	-2 -105	+2 -105
12/14 03:52 PM	-2 -110	+2 +100

Ebe · 12-16-15, 02:08 AM

Interesting. Ive always used scoresandodds

Where do you go to see Pinnacles lines?

Ebe · 12-16-15, 02:09 AM

So it opened at Cleveland -1 and closed at Cleveland -2 and 65 of the $ was on the Cavs

Thats not RLM thats just the line moving in the direction that the public was pounding