Keel's NBA Parlay System II

[keel44]

January 9

Parlay 54-A: Magic UNDER 198 with Kings +8 (1.18 to win 3.07)
Parlay 55-A: Magic -2.5 with Clippers -7.5 (1.18 to win 3.07)

[keel44]

January 10

Parlay 56-A: Celtics UNDER 193 with Mavs -4.5 (1.25 to win 3.25)
Parlay 57-A or 56-B: Thunder-7.5 with Blazers UNDER 214.5 (1.25 to win 3.25) or (3.25 to win 8.45)

[keel44]

January 10

Parlay 56-A: Celtics UNDER 193 with Mavs -4.5 (1.25 to win 3.25)
Parlay 57-A: Blazers +8.5 with Blazers UNDER 216 (1.25 to win 3.25)

* Change of odds has me changing my mind. Tough loss on the Celtic game.

[Looking4Winners]

January 10

Parlay 56-A: Celtics UNDER 193 with Mavs -4.5 (1.25 to win 3.25)
Parlay 57-A or 56-B: Thunder-7.5 with Blazers UNDER 214.5 (1.25 to win 3.25) or (3.25 to win 8.45)

Unbelievable sh*t in Celtics game - both teams combine to go 12-12 from foul line in last 33 seconds.

[keel44]

January 10

Parlay 56-A: Celtics UNDER 193 with Mavs -4.5 (1.25 to win 3.25)
Parlay 57-A: Blazers +8.5 with Blazers UNDER 216 (1.25 to win 3.25)

I cannot buy a win lately

[keel44]

January 11

No plays

[fitguy67]

Keel, spread-based NBA and NFL are dreadfully hi-variance (garbage-time and garbage-points infected) markets...

NHL is the other ml-based MLB-like market...both easy to form +300 two-leg parlays out of two EV-ish plays, making for a nice 48-1 project

you mentioned someone PM'g you about applying your method to NHL successfully...perhaps you could coax them out of the closet to post their plays for the greater good of gambling mankind...

[keel44]

Ya know fitguy you might be on to something. Maybe moneyline betting is where it is at or maybe the spreads on the sides only, not over/under. I still prefer to bet on a sport that I "know." I also do not want to copy anyone's plays.

Everything has been just fine every "season" so far. 5 to be exact. I know there is room for improvement. It is all about the bet selection process for me.

[keel44]

January 12

Parlay 58-A: Celtics -1 with Celtics OVER 200 (1.34 to win 3.48)

[keel44]

January 12

Parlay 58-A: Celtics -1 with Celtics OVER 200 (1.34 to win 3.48)

[keel44]

January 13

Parlay 59-A: Hawks -2.5 with Rockets -9 (1.38 to win 3.45)

* bought a hook on the Hawks

[keel44]

January 13

Parlay 59-A: Hawks -2.5 with Rockets -9 (1.38 to win 3.45)

I feel this run is in BIG trouble....

[keel44]

January 14

Parlay 60-A: Magic +4.5 with Grizzlies -1.5 (1.42 to win 3.69)

[keel44]

January 14

Parlay 60-A: Magic +4.5 with Grizzlies -1.5 (1.42 to win 3.69)

I need to make this one count....

[keel44]

January 15

Parlay 60-B: Mavs -1.5 with Heat -2.5 (3.69 to win 9.22)
* Bought a hook on the Heat

Parlay 61-A: Nets OVER 204.5 with Pacers UNDER 205 (1.42 to win 3.69)

[keel44]

January 15

Parlay 60-B: Mavs -1.5 with Heat -2.5 (3.69 to win 9.22)
* Bought a hook on the Heat

Parlay 61-A: Nets OVER 204.5 with Pacers UNDER 205 (1.42 to win 3.69)

2 wonderful come-backs....luck is finally on my side.

[keel44]

My picks will be up later....maybe 5pm

Sorry, but I need to be extra sure

[Looking4Winners]

January 15

Parlay 60-B: Mavs -1.5 with Heat -2.5 (3.69 to win 9.22)
* Bought a hook on the Heat

Parlay 61-A: Nets OVER 204.5 with Pacers UNDER 205 (1.42 to win 3.69)

2 wonderful come-backs....luck is finally on my side.

2 crazy comebacks. Wrote of the Heat at halftime. GL with the "C" bet.

[keel44]

January 16

Parlay 60-C: Pistons +7.5 with T-Wolves -2.5 (12.91 to win 32.27)

*bought the hook on the T-Wolves (Sunday afternoon)
*If you can't parlay an overnight line with tonight's game, just press 2 straight bets together.

[keel44]

January 16

Parlay 60-C: Pistons +7.5 with T-Wolves -2.5 (12.91 to win 32.27)

*bought the hook on the T-Wolves (Sunday afternoon)


I expect the Wolves to be fired up to break their losing streak.

[keel44]

I use www.sportsbook.ag

I got this bet in last night because of the potential line movement. I am glad I did.

[fitguy67]

due to said movement, one can now green-out (+half approx. of the full-target's profit for the ABC set, whatever happens in the pho/MIN game)

if you have a book that offers alt lines (look for pho+2.5 and use

http://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php

[fitguy67]

^^sorry for the late post...but same /opportunity/calc'n can be applied in-game

obviously, the better it looks for the C bet (ie. Minn covering 2.5) the higher the proportion of the full-pop you can "lock in" (and as the +pts for pho offered exceed the 2.5, there's the rising possibility of hitting a "middle" as well, where both the "C" and the hedge-bet hit)...

although micro-managing positions like this over the long-haul is generally -eV, knowing how to "green out" the last leg of a parlay is a nice arrow to have in your quiver, because sometimes given your bankroll & psychological situation
the "no sweat" X% > "if sweat ends favorably" 100%

[fitguy67]

think it's safe'nuff now(up 25 with 5m left)...to congratulate Keel for finishing yet another character-building ABC ordeal...the "superchicken" approach i outlined above cut my profit in half but i'm still happy

[keel44]

January 16

Parlay 60-C: Pistons +7.5 with T-Wolves -2.5 (12.91 to win 32.27)

A success! I ignored following my 4 teams for this run and it paid off beautifully!

[keel44]

+19.85 on the year for the NBA.

+10.01 on this current run

Units are 2% of total bank.

I'll keep it going at least 1 more time before the MLB starts.
I'll go for 10 more units starting tomorrow.

[Looking4Winners]

+19.85 on the year for the NBA.

+10.01 on this current run

Units are 2% of total bank.

I'll keep it going at least 1 more time before the MLB starts.
I'll go for 10 more units starting tomorrow.

Great hit!!!

[keel44]

For anyone playing my "B" and "C" bets only at the same units as I do, you would have profited 23.01 units as opposed to my 10.01 on this particular run.

[keel44]

Since July 23 2014, which is the start of my money management strategy, I have a total net profit of +114.97 units.

This strategy uses a 50 unit bankroll. 1 unit equals 2%.

I am trying to show a profit for each "season" MLB, NFL, NBA. --- and I have

I have lost a 50 unit bank. I made a tweak to the MLB strategy and promptly stormed back with a 70 unit gain that made up for the lost bankroll.

This strategy is still too risky to rely on "never" losing a 50 unit bank. So you need to have a backup bankroll at equal value with the hopes of making up ground should you lose the 50 unit bank.

If you reformat 1 bankroll after every "C" hit, you must divide that into the reserve bankroll as well. That is the safest way to build your funds. I will take the time to see what that would look like if you started with 2 $1000 bankrolls following me exactly.

[keel44]

I went through the back data and I accurately figured in where I would have increased the unit sizes for 2 bankrolls. One bankroll is in reserve to try and "catch up" should there be a bankroll loss. Both bankrolls need to be the same amount so the unit sizes could be the same.

The NBA seasons overlap the NFL seasons. So I cannot adjust unit sizes until there was a break point with both chases being done. I can assure you the draw down while playing both the NBA and NFL simultaneously did not exceed 50 units.

I could have readjusted the unit size 8 times. If you started with 2 bankrolls of $1000, you would currently sit with 2 bankrolls of $2845.23. A $2000 total would now be $5690.46 total.

A $1000 total bankroll would now be $2845.23 total.

This may not seem great with being up 115 units, but you must consider that I lost a 50 unit bankroll. I needed another 50 unit bank. This must be accounted for and for extra protection.

*It should be noted that my 50 unit loss has since caused an adjustment to my MLB strategy. That new adjustment allowed me to profit 70 units in 1 week to more than catch up.

[keel44]

January 18

Parlay 01-A: Wizards -4.5 with Bulls OVER 202 (0.32 to win 0.83)

*I am going for 10 more units here
*I might have something later this evening

[keel44]

January 18

Parlay 01-A: Wizards -4.5 with Bulls OVER 202 (0.32 to win 0.83)
Parlay 02-A: Cavs -2.5 with Clippers -5.5 (0.33 to win 0.82)

*bought the hook on the Clippers

[keel44]

January 18

Parlay 01-A: Wizards -4.5 with Bulls OVER 202 (0.32 to win 0.83)
Parlay 02-A: Cavs -2.5 with Clippers -5.5 (0.33 to win 0.82)

It feels good to start over

[keel44]

January 19

Parlay 03-A: Bucks +5.5 with Pacers -6.5 (0.34 to win 0.88)

* I have locked this in now....

[keel44]

January 19

Parlay 03-A: Bucks +5.5 with Pacers -6.5 (0.34 to win 0.88)

Crazy crazy crap to the end of the Pacer game. They were up 16 with 4:43 to go and can't cover. Phoenix making 3's and the Pacers had a key turnover.