NOTES (of caution)
Once the season gets rolling I plan to rank all 30 teams daily, based on their last 10 games. (Each team gets a weighted gamescore for each game and the last ten gamescores are weighted for recency and averaged). Until the team plays ten games in 2006-07, segments of last season are subbing in as past performance. So last season's play will matter in these rankings, on a decreasing basis, for the first three weeks of the season.
Earlier this month I retrofitted my revised moneyline formula onto a seven-week stretch of last season. That test showed the moneylines working best as a betting tool when they state a win-probability 5%-20% different from the true money line. When the difference was less than 5% or more than 20% the results were less impressive.
Tuesday night my Laker line gives them a 57% chance to win - which is more than 20% better than the market (Pinny currently has them at 34% to win). Thus the potential play on the Lakers is in the "too good" range. We'll see. The ML on the Lakers would have to drop to +171 to get into the key range.
The ML on the Bulls would have to rise to +262 to get 5% away from my moneyline and into the key range.
Note that these numbers do not take any account of injuries or fatigue. That will be the case all year,
Until we get 10 games into the season, I am treading very lightly.
RANKINGS prior to 10.31.06 games
1 SAN
2 DET
3 DAL
4 PHX
5 MIA
6 CLE
7 NJN
8 MEM
9 SAC
10 LAX
11 LAC
12 DEN
13 CHI
14 WAS
15 UTH
16 IND
17 MIL
18 NOK
19 PHI
20 ORL
21 SEA
22 HOU
23 BOS
24 GSW
25 MIN
26 TOR
27 ATL
28 CHA
29 NYY
30 POR
PROJECTED SU WIN % for 10.31.06
MIA .674
LAX .570
EDGAR LINES for 10.31.06
(FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)
MIA 5.9/207 CHI
LAX 2.8/132 PHX
PICKS
none so far
Once the season gets rolling I plan to rank all 30 teams daily, based on their last 10 games. (Each team gets a weighted gamescore for each game and the last ten gamescores are weighted for recency and averaged). Until the team plays ten games in 2006-07, segments of last season are subbing in as past performance. So last season's play will matter in these rankings, on a decreasing basis, for the first three weeks of the season.
Earlier this month I retrofitted my revised moneyline formula onto a seven-week stretch of last season. That test showed the moneylines working best as a betting tool when they state a win-probability 5%-20% different from the true money line. When the difference was less than 5% or more than 20% the results were less impressive.
Tuesday night my Laker line gives them a 57% chance to win - which is more than 20% better than the market (Pinny currently has them at 34% to win). Thus the potential play on the Lakers is in the "too good" range. We'll see. The ML on the Lakers would have to drop to +171 to get into the key range.
The ML on the Bulls would have to rise to +262 to get 5% away from my moneyline and into the key range.
Note that these numbers do not take any account of injuries or fatigue. That will be the case all year,
Until we get 10 games into the season, I am treading very lightly.
RANKINGS prior to 10.31.06 games
1 SAN
2 DET
3 DAL
4 PHX
5 MIA
6 CLE
7 NJN
8 MEM
9 SAC
10 LAX
11 LAC
12 DEN
13 CHI
14 WAS
15 UTH
16 IND
17 MIL
18 NOK
19 PHI
20 ORL
21 SEA
22 HOU
23 BOS
24 GSW
25 MIN
26 TOR
27 ATL
28 CHA
29 NYY
30 POR
PROJECTED SU WIN % for 10.31.06
MIA .674
LAX .570
EDGAR LINES for 10.31.06
(FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)
MIA 5.9/207 CHI
LAX 2.8/132 PHX
PICKS
none so far
