Leans for April Fool's Day

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for April Fool's Day
    Well, I suppose that I won't be among the majority of bettors with the next pick as I see that the public is already lining up at the counter attempting to get charity chicken dinners with the Rockets. Houston is one of my favorite teams to wager on this year, but I think that they are in a bad spot in this one facng a hungry Phoenix team that has lost 3 straight and also lost three straight to the Rockets. i am gonna ride that triple revenge and see if the Suns can play up to their potential and make just a few more stops than Houston (which will be hard) and pick up the victory.



    Pho3nix(PK) HEAVY



    In my other selection, I am going to take full advantage of the Lakers' hunger to get back in the win column, and the Bucks loosey goosey style of play of late. The Bucks are horrid on defense and one look at their roster reveals that they have absolutely no one that can handle Kobe when inspired and believe you me he will be inspired in this game after seeing them lose the overall best record in the NBA to Cleveland with their loss yesterday to the Bobbies.

    Lakers/Bucks over 202


    Lakers-2 1st quarter (Taken from repski at gun point in the parking lot)

    *See posts #27 & 33


    After much thought, I have decided to add the Celtics to my playbook for the day. Everyone knows that KG and Leon Powe will not play, but Gang Green is a very deep team and they are at home and rested. The youngsters have already been playing together for quite awhile since KG suffered his knee injury. Eddie House loves to play extra minutes and he responded with 16 points in just 22 minutes in the Celtics last game against the Thunder. Rebounds will not be a problem with the dynamic duo of Perkins and Big Baby on the front line. Of course the shot blocking won't be there without KG and Powe, but the Celtics still have some of the best on the ball defenders in the league at the guard position. Throw in the biased referee calls that go along with the Celtics playing at home, and you have the recipe for a blowout if Charlotte gets tired in the third quarter. It is very hard to do what they are setting out to do. I'll take the Kelly Factor into play in this one. Here's why:

    What I see here is the Bobcats are facing the two finalists from the NBA Championship back to back style, and one of those teams will thouroughly outclass them since those are both top tier teams. Since the Bobbies beat the Lakers last night, it shall be the publicly perceived Celtics who bring them back to earth. And since I thoroughly believe that the Celtics will win this game, I'll take the long chalk.


    Celtics-7.5 (with a point buy) HEAVY

  • Vincepcion
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-07-09
    • 834

    #2
    I'm on both, lets go!!!
    Comment
    • cs11787
      SBR MVP
      • 08-26-08
      • 1088

      #3
      The line on Pho moved from -2 to -1 in 4 hours. Anyone know the consensus on this game?
      Comment
      • HoulihansTX
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 02-12-09
        • 30566

        #4
        Wow we agree. And this was my only play that i questioned. No longer the case. But is Barbosa back yet? they need him for this playoff run.
        Comment
        • NBA Hero
          SBR MVP
          • 12-05-08
          • 1886

          #5
          i liked the way you speak of lakers hunger. you should include gasol manhandling whoever they put on him, gadzuric or elson. odom just need to defend villanueva.
          Comment
          • pho3nix32
            SBR MVP
            • 01-09-09
            • 1465

            #6
            First of all, I just want to say f#ck you denver nuggets!!!!!!! Ok now that is out of the way, on to tomorrow's play:

            line: tr@om 203pick: 203 over

            The Magic leads the league in 3-pointers made while the Raptors are 2nd in the league in the most 3 points allowed. The Raptors like to run. The Magic likes to drain threes. A nice combination for an over game. Head to head, the over is 8-4 during meetings in Orlando.


            PS: I hate the denver f*ck#rs!!!!! i hope they get swept in the first round!!!!!
            Comment
            • NBA Hero
              SBR MVP
              • 12-05-08
              • 1886

              #7
              phoenix,

              i agree, denver could have save the night for me. so damn them.
              difficult for denver to lose that easy in the first round. carmelo havent passed 1st round, and thats the reason they got billups. of course will depend on the match up.

              how about det game tom. can they polish of winless harris ( since he came back). i like det better without sheed. no unnecessary technical, or uncalled 3point attempts.
              Comment
              • pho3nix32
                SBR MVP
                • 01-09-09
                • 1465

                #8
                the line is very weird. like a trap. im not going to even analyze this spread.
                Comment
                • danrman
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-30-08
                  • 2696

                  #9
                  ck is definitely on to something.. houston will be looking ahead to playing the lakers.. if this line goes down to pick,bang the hell out of it
                  Comment
                  • pho3nix32
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-09-09
                    • 1465

                    #10
                    i missed out an opportunity on heavy portland play today. not gonna let this one slide. go Suns!!!!!!!
                    Comment
                    • King_Bookie
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 03-07-09
                      • 602

                      #11
                      Urgggg, went 1-2 today... fscking Denver.

                      My plays:

                      Toronto Raptors +10

                      That will be all
                      Comment
                      • danrman
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-30-08
                        • 2696

                        #12
                        rockets 3-10 ats last 13 meetings vs phoenix
                        Comment
                        • danrman
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-30-08
                          • 2696

                          #13
                          dallas mavs. next home game after this miami contest is vs phoenix which is of course the team they are battling for the 8th spot in the playoffs.. doubt they will want to outperform in this situation.. also a btb for them... miami deserves a look.. they will be a part of my 8 pt teaser
                          Comment
                          • solobass
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-15-09
                            • 1277

                            #14
                            CK I tailed your Blazers pick to redeem some semblance of productivity, thanks. I hear you on the Lakers, plus figure in they owe me money revenge on top of that. I have the feeling that the Heat will be a live dog @ Dallas today too, but just early leans so far.
                            Comment
                            • melincrea
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 02-20-09
                              • 276

                              #15
                              My picks for Wednesday:

                              Lakers -6.5
                              Orlando -10
                              Comment
                              • Vreston
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-12-09
                                • 1428

                                #16
                                Originally posted by cocknocker

                                Pho3nix(PK) HEAVY
                                Sorry for asking an idiotic question but what do you mean exactly by (PK)?
                                I'm trying to get used to some of the terminology you guys use in the States.
                                Thanks
                                Comment
                                • RoagBettor
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 01-20-09
                                  • 8355

                                  #17
                                  PK means it's a "pick'em" game, no points on either side you just need to pick the winner.
                                  Comment
                                  • mehow
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 698

                                    #18
                                    i have already booked a teaser:
                                    boston -2,5
                                    pho +6
                                    dal +2,5

                                    100 to win 225
                                    Comment
                                    • stakagrp
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 01-05-09
                                      • 237

                                      #19
                                      Tough night for me yesterday. I went 4-5 last night, but then I played Denver, Dal 1st half, and a few other 2nd half plays. I ended up winning about 50% of my plays, but lost close to 2k. It sucks because it always seem to be the big plays that I lose on and the smaller that I hit. I'll try to play fewer plays for tomorrow and hope to win some of that $$ back.

                                      Record from posted plays: 6-6-1 Yikes!!!
                                      Comment
                                      • Vreston
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-12-09
                                        • 1428

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by RoagBettor
                                        PK means it's a "pick'em" game, no points on either side you just need to pick the winner.
                                        Thanks for the quick reply.
                                        I thought you just used the terms ML or SU
                                        Comment
                                        • suicidekings
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-23-09
                                          • 9962

                                          #21
                                          Wednesday Leans

                                          HOU @ PHO (-1), HOU 1Q

                                          - This line is low, IMO. Last time these teams met, HOU won by 4 points, but PHO allowed them to go to the Free Throw line 37 times (28-37), virtually handing them the game. PHO is 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in their last 10 home games. HOU is 5-5 SU (6-4 ATS) in their last 10 road games.

                                          LAL @ MIL (+7)
                                          - The home team has won the last 3 matchups, and in each game MIL has covered the spread. Currently, 88% of betters are on the Lakers, while the Lakers line has gone from -7.5 to -6.5. The Lakers are also on the last day of a 7 game road trip.

                                          TOR @ ORL (-10.5), ORL 1Q
                                          - Toronto is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 2-8-2 as an underdog of 8 points or more. ORL is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.2ppg.
                                          Comment
                                          • Jimbo42
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-04-09
                                            • 2076

                                            #22
                                            LOL, Ya'll are hating on my boys! Damn... Hold on now ya"ll were all on the Nuggets when they played at New Orleans and won (nice CK pick if I recall)then I know you were all on them the game before this one when they pounded Golden State.. The Nuggets had covered 4 straight before this Knicks game.. They are not a damn atm machine... Anyway them Knicks have been covering against everyone on the road (now 7-1 ats last 8 road games)... But I feel for you though Pho as I remember a couple weeks back when the Nuggets missed the cover in a couple of games by half a point,,, FRUSTRATING!

                                            GL to all

                                            You know I love ya'll... I just got to get my boys' back.. ya know!
                                            Comment
                                            • Jimbo42
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-04-09
                                              • 2076

                                              #23
                                              btw, I have bet on a Nuggets game once in the last two weeks.. I was against them when I played Dallas and I LOST the game as the Nuggets beat me. But that was my bad as I misjudged a downturn in their play... Let me tell you after the Nuggets lose a game straight up (could be next one vs. Utah), but once they lose a game straight up... go HEAVY against them in the next game... It will be a solid play.... Good Luck!
                                              Comment
                                              • pho3nix32
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-09-09
                                                • 1465

                                                #24
                                                CK, thoughts on your pistons? line opened at pick but now the pistons are 1.5 dogs??? i dont get this. trends even point to detroit.
                                                Comment
                                                • JGILL50
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 10-31-08
                                                  • 836

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by danrman
                                                  ck is definitely on to something.. houston will be looking ahead to playing the lakers.. if this line goes down to pick,bang the hell out of it
                                                  I disagree about the rockets looking ahead they can retake the lead in the division with this win you will get an honest effort from theses rockets
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pho3nix32
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-09-09
                                                    • 1465

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Jimbo42
                                                    But I feel for you though Pho as I remember a couple weeks back when the Nuggets missed the cover in a couple of games by half a point,,, FRUSTRATING!

                                                    GL to all

                                                    You know I love ya'll... I just got to get my boys' back.. ya know!
                                                    sorry jimbo, but i have good reason to hate this team. i have not won a bet with games they play in. whether i bet on them or bet against them. denver f#ck#rs!!!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • repski
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-01-09
                                                      • 1929

                                                      #27
                                                      CK,

                                                      I think LAL are a definite GREAT canidate tonight for a 1Q wager!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • NBA Hero
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-05-08
                                                        • 1886

                                                        #28
                                                        season is virtually over for NJ needing to win at minimum of six wins out of their remaining 8, to have a chance at 8th spot.

                                                        will they just lie down and let det run them over. coach can just rest harris and banged up carter instead of risking it against pistons.

                                                        pistons just need to win the game.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • NBA Hero
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-05-08
                                                          • 1886

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by danrman
                                                          dallas mavs. next home game after this miami contest is vs phoenix which is of course the team they are battling for the 8th spot in the playoffs.. doubt they will want to outperform in this situation.. also a btb for them... miami deserves a look.. they will be a part of my 8 pt teaser

                                                          dallas can be potent at home. with all three scorers at the court vs D. Wade. wade just cant do it alone with his teammates virtually left watching wade doing the scoring. no extended mins played by mavs last night so fatigue cant be a factor.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pho3nix32
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-09-09
                                                            • 1465

                                                            #30
                                                            i saw the reason for the line now. sheed wont be playing saw in nite's informative writeup.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pho3nix32
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-09-09
                                                              • 1465

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by NBA Hero
                                                              dallas can be potent at home. with all three scorers at the court vs D. Wade. wade just cant do it alone with his teammates virtually left watching wade doing the scoring. no extended mins played by mavs last night so fatigue cant be a factor.
                                                              d.wade tore dallas apart in the nba finals before burning all dallas backers...its possible he could do it again...this time no devin harris but a slower j.kidd
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cocknocker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-06-08
                                                                • 8001

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by pho3nix32
                                                                CK, thoughts on your pistons? line opened at pick but now the pistons are 1.5 dogs??? i dont get this. trends even point to detroit.
                                                                Rasheed Wallace received his 16th technical against the Cavs and was suspended for this game against the Nets. So once again the Pistons will have to jumble their lineup and mix minutes. It's going to be tough for them to get the cover in this one against a Nets team that got blown the f*ck out by Milwaukee in their last home game. The over in this one will be the call, as Detroits ebounding and defense will not be as crisp as it was against the Cavs with this being a back end game. I see a lot of fouling going on in this game, and a lot of free throws mans a lot of points scored with the clock standing still....
                                                                Comment
                                                                • cocknocker
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-06-08
                                                                  • 8001

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by repski
                                                                  CK,

                                                                  I think LAL are a definite GREAT canidate tonight for a 1Q wager!!

                                                                  Goood call! Two straight losses by the Lakers and a blowout for the Bucks in their last game translates into a blowout for the Lakers in the 1st quarter with the carry -over effect working in their favor. Milwaukee has been sniffing the roses of their win over the Nets. I think that this is a marvelous call and I will add it to my playbook for the day.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • RoagBettor
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 01-20-09
                                                                    • 8355

                                                                    #34
                                                                    ck, I need one more solid play for my 3/8 tonight. Already taking Orlando -2 and Boston -1. Could get Phoenix +6.5 but Rockets are rested. Anything else besides that game that looks great to you?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pho3nix32
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-09-09
                                                                      • 1465

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                                      Rasheed Wallace received his 16th technical against the Cavs and was suspended for this game against the Nets. So once again the Pistons will have to jumble their lineup and mix minutes. It's going to be tough for them to get the cover in this one against a Nets team that got blown the f*ck out by Milwaukee in their last home game. The over in this one will be the call, as Detroits ebounding and defense will not be as crisp as it was against the Cavs with this being a back end game. I see a lot of fouling going on in this game, and a lot of free throws mans a lot of points scored with the clock standing still....
                                                                      over looks good with sheed out.
                                                                      Comment
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