Leans for Monday 3/30/09

[cocknocker]

Hey cocknocker whats your thought on Golden State 1H . Should be solid IMO. Memphis is a weak A$$ Team on the road plus Golden State scores alot @ Home

As far as 1st frame wagers, here's what I recommend

Ist quarter over
Warriors-1.5 1st quarter
Over 109 for the 1st half.

Although the Grizzlies don't like to run, especially on he road as evidenced in their totals record in road games, they will have no choice or else they will get run out of the gym.

[solobass]

I just cant bet on MIA tonite, one thing I learned about the magic is you either bet with em or you dont bet em at all.

GL on that one though as I will steer clear

miami bit me in the A$$ in the 3OT game against the jazz. the heat can be tough because some nights d wade is the most dominant on the planet but not all the time. he seems to sparkle whenever i have money against the heat for some reason.....

anyway booked play
Knicks +11
this one was really close in my model, if it goes to 10.5 no play but at 11 it fits.

[TripleHHH]

Hey cocknocker whats your thought on Golden State 1H . Should be solid IMO. Memphis is a weak A$$ Team on the road plus Golden State scores alot @ Home

After looking into Golden State more they scare me with their defense therefore NP for me

[jonnyj03]

What book do you guys use to get these Quarter lines so early? Or even -1.5 for GSW first half? My book shows -3 1H for GSW and no quarter lines out already. What book do you guys use to see these quarter lines already? You people are saying that its a big spread for the Orl Mia 1q and I dont even see one o.O

I use bookmaker. I have checked other sites too and havent found any 1q spreads out already...

[hockeytown71]

Congrats CK!!! Well done. I think we all benefitted from you 3. Back to Monday, I have 3 plays on NHL:

Devils ml -115
NJ/NYR Under 5.5 -145
Calgary ml -135

Good Luck Everyone!!!

[peterpan19]

jonnyj03

check thegreek...

GL

[TripleHHH]

What book do you guys use to get these Quarter lines so early? Or even -1.5 for GSW first half? My book shows -3 1H for GSW and no quarter lines out already. What book do you guys use to see these quarter lines already? You people are saying that its a big spread for the Orl Mia 1q and I dont even see one o.O

I use bookmaker. I have checked other sites too and havent found any 1q spreads out already...

5dimes , thegreek , betus ....... you may want to change books

[Wilforth]

miami bit me in the A$$ in the 3OT game against the jazz. the heat can be tough because some nights d wade is the most dominant on the planet but not all the time. he seems to sparkle whenever i have money against the heat for some reason.....

anyway booked play
Knicks +11
this one was really close in my model, if it goes to 10.5 no play but at 11 it fits.

I'd say Knicks +6 1H would be a much better play than Knicks +11 for game.

[cocknocker]

Short board today gentlemen. Let's get some capping done. Lets have some insightful information for the wagering eye.

[whatisit]

Any injuries for the Orl/Mia game? Looking at trends, majority are on the over but line has been dropping.

[johnnymapalo]

Any injuries for the Orl/Mia game? Looking at trends, majority are on the over but line has been dropping.

Phuck line movement!!! Just play what you know...

[whatisit]

Phuck line movement!!! Just play what you know...

Haha..thats what I did, took the over last night expecting the line to keep going up...little worried now

[stakagrp]

Utah 1st half over looks good. Game o/u is set at 213 but the 1st half line is set at 109. This line is much higher than what it would be by 2.5 pts if the total was split in half at 106.5. They make this total look high to try and sway the public into thinking just that. This is a resemblance of the Pho/Sac game yesterday with the o/u set at 236.5 and the 1st half at 119.5. The season is over for the Knicks and I think they're just going to go out having fun running and gunning and same as always, playing hardly any defense. As for the Jazz, they score much more at home. Both teams have been scoring less than normal, but having rest on both ends and with fresh legs they're going to go back to their normal ways with the uptempo play and lots of offense. Gl for those who ride with me on this play. I hope we cash in!

[Bob Roberts]

anyway booked play
Knicks +11
this one was really close in my model, if it goes to 10.5 no play but at 11 it fits.

Knicks are playing 7 games in 11 nights. The jazz have the best home court in the league. The Jazz blew a big double digit lead the other night against the suns, they will be focused tonight, no mercry..... Knicks look like they are done for the year at this point, losing to the clippers and kings.....

Solobass, I respect your opinion (thanks for the tip on michigan state yesterday!) What is the tipping point for taking the Knicks?

[TheLemonDropKid]

Utah 1st half over looks good. Game o/u is set at 213 but the 1st half line is set at 109. This line is much higher than what it would be by 2.5 pts if the total was split in half at 106.5. They make this total look high to try and sway the public into thinking just that. This is a resemblance of the Pho/Sac game yesterday with the o/u set at 236.5 and the 1st half at 119.5. The season is over for the Knicks and I think they're just going to go out having fun running and gunning and same as always, playing hardly any defense. As for the Jazz, they score much more at home. Both teams have been scoring less than normal, but having rest on both ends and with fresh legs they're going to go back to their normal ways with the uptempo play and lots of offense. Gl for those who ride with me on this play. I hope we cash in!

I thought 1Q and 1H lines were inflated like this on ALL games........I don't think I've seen any 1H lines that were exactly half of the overall line.......and no 1Q lines that were exactly half of the 1H lines........they are always higher.......if I'm not mistaken.

[gameday10]

I thought 1Q and 1H lines were inflated like this on ALL games........I don't think I've seen any 1H lines that were exactly half of the overall line.......and no 1Q lines that were exactly half of the 1H lines........they are always higher.......if I'm not mistaken.

Most of the time the 1h total, when doubled, are about 1-2 points different. If you see an occasion like this in the Utah game where double 109 is 218 and the total is 213 then the books want the public to hammer the under. I play 1H totals like this, if I see something with about a 5 point difference. Same thing happened in the phoenix/gs game when the total was 244 or something and the 1h line was about 5-6 points higher than that and they put up 140+ the 1h.

[RoagBettor]

1H lines are generally higher because the game tends to slow down in the 4th quarter (fatigue, fouls, running out the clock with a lead, etc.). Unless the Suns are playing.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Most of the time the 1h total, when doubled, are about 1-2 points different. If you see an occasion like this in the Utah game where double 109 is 218 and the total is 213 then the books want the public to hammer the under. I play 1H totals like this, if I see something with about a 5 point difference. Same thing happened in the phoenix/gs game when the total was 244 or something and the 1h line was about 5-6 points higher than that and they put up 140+ the 1h.

Interesting......so is this a pretty consistently successful wagering strategy? Always take the 1H Over when the line is 5 or more higher than the total for the game?

[Bob Roberts]

I thought 1Q and 1H lines were inflated like this on ALL games........I don't think I've seen any 1H lines that were exactly half of the overall line.......and no 1Q lines that were exactly half of the 1H lines........they are always higher.......if I'm not mistaken.

Typically first half lines will be lower than half the game total, especially for college bball.... There are 2 exceptions from what i have seen: Utah and Charlotte, both of these teams score more in the first half than the second half, thus the higher total in the first half.

[Bob Roberts]

1H lines are generally higher because the game tends to slow down in the 4th quarter (fatigue, fouls, running out the clock with a lead, etc.). Unless the Suns are playing.

I respectfully disagree, more fouls increases scoring.... don't tell me you haven't see games where you have seen 20 points in the last 2 minutes because of fouls?

College bball, the first half is almost always less than half the game total.

EG: tonights games, Jazz/Knicks are the only game with a 1st half line greater than half the game total. All other games are equal to or less than the game total.

[gameday10]

Interesting......so is this a pretty consistently successful wagering strategy? Always take the 1H Over when the line is 5 or more higher than the total for the game?

Yes, I check the lines everyday. It has been profitable to me, when I see a 1h that looks odd. If Utah 1h line was 104 and the total was 213 I would take the 1h under.

[RoagBettor]

Bob, I'm talking about 1H totals compared to 2H totals. I need to analyze this more but it seems to me that in most NBA games the 1H total is higher than the 2H.

Does someone know the answer to this for sure?

[mehow]

gs -5,5
mia +2,5 (they are at home wade should lead them to a victory, miami won last six games at home)
nj -3 (the trends are so favorable for them)

and this teaser and i'll play it big:
UTA Jazz-4.0 @ 1.26
MIA Heat+9.5 @ 1.27
GS Warriors+1.5 @ 1.33

i also followed phoenix32, playing knicks-utah under
and all three unders in nhl (following woodchip)

Good luck!

[gameday10]

I have a few books and just joined BJ, can you not buy points in parlays? Does not look like you can, just wanted to make sure.

[dennisback]

check the odds on
"Most points in a quarter"

Mostly the lowest odds are for 1Q and 2Q so the books seem to know 1H is statistically more points

[BebeRebozo]

New Jersey Nets -3
Orlando Magic -2,5
Utah Jazz -11
Golden State Warriors ML

[BigMoneyMan]

I just got back from work in Tampa. I have been it touch with him but its time to give publicly give props to CK for winning the challenge. I want a rematch next year but for now I am glad its over. So Congradulations

PS. FYI Never start fading him and playing things you shouldn't when your down you see what happen to me yesterday

[Bob Roberts]

Bob, I'm talking about 1H totals compared to 2H totals. I need to analyze this more but it seems to me that in most NBA games the 1H total is higher than the 2H.

Does someone know the answer to this for sure?

For college bball, i can definitely say no, 1h is always lower.
For Utah Jazz games, I can definitely say most of the time yes, 1h is higher

All others, I am not sure, more feedback is appreciated.

[nitetrain]

Big ...i dont expect u 2 congradulate me for kicking ya ass last week after u called me out but just so u know u stand 0-2 against me on challenges....good luck man

[AzNDooM]

I like the calls tonight made by Ck and Cashin, but think going to stay away from the Miami / Orlando game. 8-2 in past two seasons is a trend i dont want to bet against on even though CK has been right for me on 100% on the past two days. Too bad we cant play 1Q in Australian Books.

[AzNDooM]

BETS
==============================
NBA
gs -5.5 (2 units)
utah/nyk under 213.5 (2 units)
nj -3.0 (1 unit)

NHL
dallas ml (2 units)

[TripleHHH]

cocknocker Golden State 7 straight overs after SU loss. May be worth looking at. BOL

[Dexter]

the home team has won and covered each game this year, and i look for that trend to continue on monday. give me wade as a home dog. heat + 2 projected

the jazz are in revenge mode in salt lake off a nov loss at the garden. the knicks have played the jazz well the last few years - not monday night in this spot. jazz - 11 projected

[milkshakeballa]

• Last 6 out of 7 games MIA and ORL played the totals went over the current 193 OU.
• Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 8-2-1 in Heat last 11 home games.

A few trends point towards the under of a 198 or 199....but NOT a 193 line imo...see Wade really going off 2nite...they only got a few homes games left and they will really push to win them...
Im throwing 2 units on this O 193 for ORL/MIA.


Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Bucks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Nets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
Nets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

LOVING these trends...MIL is struggling...puttin another 2 units on NJ -3.

<LI class=morecool>Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.<LI class=morehot>Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. <LI class=morehot>Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
MEM struggling...only averaging 86 points a game in their last 5. GS is avg 107. Magette is doubtful. So I ain't going to touch the ATS even with those trends...

Last 4/5 games between the 2 have went U...going throw a unit on the U 220 today.

<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games as a road underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 road games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 overall.<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
So far:

1 unit on U 220 GS/MEM
2 units O 193.5 ORL/MIA
2 units NJ -3
And going throw a 1.5 unit on NJ -1.5 1H

[The_Kid]

Not many games on the board today so I'm looking at some prop bets and I think I've found some.

Dwight Howard OVER 36.5 Points + Rebounds

This number is certainly attainable for Howard. In the last meeting, he totaled 32 points and 17 rebounds. I noticed he did shoot 10-15 from the line and I realize he probably won't do that again but there is no one on the Heat who can guard him. They can throw O'Neal, Haslem, Magloire, or all their big guys at him. He'll still get his points and he'll definitely defend the paint and grab all the rebounds in his reach. I expect this game to be closely contested so that should mean more minutes on the floor for Howard. I don't think I have to explain this one any further. I definitely think there is value here.

Dwyane Wade -10.5 Points vs Rashard Lewis

I realize this is a lot but as some posters mentioned, Wade tears the Magic up. He dropped 50 points on them in the last meeting and in his career, he is averaging 30 points vs Orlando. Meanwhile, Lewis hasn't performed like he was in the beginning of the year. In his last 10 games, he has totaled 20+ points only 3 times. Going back further, he has totaled 20+ points only 6 times in his last 20 games. Looking back at his game logs, it seems like he is definitely struggling with his jump shot. I like this one enough to play it but it's not something I'd go crazy over.