Leans for Monday 3/30/09

SportsTerminator · 03-29-09, 11:15 PM

Well said.

CashIn · 03-29-09, 11:16 PM

Orlando 1Q reeks of cash.

King_Bookie · 03-29-09, 11:18 PM

I'm looking at a nice utah blow out here...

cnleaf · 03-29-09, 11:18 PM

We are back to normal. Btw, Where is BIGGIE?
CK, when are we going to start the baseball season? Im so eager to roll my first baseball season.

cocknocker · 03-29-09, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by CashIn

Orlando 1Q reeks of cash.

Good call, you know I can't let you be the only one cashing that ticket, homes. Consider your pick carjacked.

CashIn · 03-29-09, 11:23 PM

Utah 1Q also deserves a look.

texhooper · 03-29-09, 11:29 PM

my only question about miami/orlando 1st q is this...is it possible for a decent team to suck mule dicks in the first quarter forever? meaning, will they start winning their first quarters from here on out because the law of averages has to come into play at some time? or can a team just suck that badly in the first quarter and still be a playoff team?

seanjohn007 · 03-29-09, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by CashIn

Orlando 1Q reeks of cash.

i was thinking the same thing when i saw the spread

jonnyj03 · 03-29-09, 11:31 PM

what book you guys use bookmaker doesnt have quarters out yet

Jimbo42 · 03-29-09, 11:32 PM

CK,
bro, haven't had a chance to congratulate but you the man! And still undefeated! You are a cappin mofo my friend...much respect!

Jimbo42 · 03-29-09, 11:35 PM

And CK..... Miami!.....Going old scoolz contrarian style..... NICE!

stakagrp · 03-29-09, 11:44 PM

I can't buy more than .5 with my local book. I guess I'll just wait til the other lines come out tomorrow. Hopefully there is another game that you have in mind CK.

CashIn · 03-29-09, 11:45 PM

Miami +3.5

Last game @ Orlando was a fluke. Expect the home court to play a huge factor in these heated Florida rivals. Revenge is on Dwyane's mind, and we all remember how Dwyane Wade plays when he's angry don't we(when he exploded at MSG after receiving an elbow)? Take that factor and add Flash playing at MVP caliber and you've got yourself a Miami victory.

Orlando 1Q

Simply put, at third in the league, Orlando wins 65% of their first quarters, while the slow-out-of-the-tunnel Heat are in dead last at first quarter wins at 28%.

Utah/New York u214

Pound the under. Enough said.

Utah 1Q

The Jazz are at home, win 56% of their first quarters and are playing the inconsistent New York Knicks, who are at 43%. What more could you ask for?

Golden State -6
The Warriors are playing at home, and I don't care who the game thrower Don Nelson plays, the Grizzlies are going into this hell-arena and coming out with a higher number in their loss column. The over deserves a look at as well.

UNC -7.5
For anyone who cares, UNC is going to bring Nova back to earth.

2-2

nitetrain · 03-30-09, 01:46 AM

THE LAST TIME ORLANDO PLAYED IN MIA ...THE HEAT DOMINATED THE MAGIC AS +7.5 UNDERDOGS WINNING OUTRIGHT.NOW ONCE AGAIN BOTH TEAMS MEET IN MIA ONLY THIS TIME THE SPREAD HAS FALLEN MIAMI'S WAY TO +3.TO ME IF THE ODDSMAKERS THOUGHT THAT ORLANDO WOULD DOMINATE THIS GAME ,THEY WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE KEPT THE SPREAD AT ORLANDO -7.5 AGAIN.THEREFORE THE SAFEST PLAY WOULD BE TO TAKE THE POINTS ALREADY GIVEN AND BUY ANOTHER 2 POINTS MAKING MIAMI +5 AT HOME.AFTER CAPPING THIS GAME I REALIZE THAT DEWAYNE WADE IS AT HIS BEST WHEN PLAYING AGAINST ORLANDO...ALSO HE HAS SCORED AND PICKED APART ORLANDO'S DEFENSE MORE THAN ANY OTHER TEAM IN NBA......

PICK: MIAMI +5 WITH A 2 POINT BUY (INSURANCE IS ALWAYS GOOD) BETTER TO HAVE IT AND NOT NEED IT ,THAN TO NEED IT AND NOT HAVE IT.

UTAH , BY MY STANDARDS SHOULD WIN THE FIRST QTR BY A MINIMUM OF 4 POINTS..AS NY GIVES UP AN AVG OF 28 PTS TO UTAH'S 24 IN THE FIRST QTR....UTAH SHOULD ALSO BE AHEAD BY AT LEAST 7 POINTS AT THE HALF CONSIDERING NY GIVES UP 55 TO UTAH'S 48 AT THE BREAK....PICK: UTAH 1ST QTR AND 1ST HALF

THE LAST TIME NY PLAYED IN UTAH THE TOTAL SCORE WAS SET AT 207....HOWEVER UNDER WAS THE PLAY IN THAT GAME AS THE SCORE ENDED UP 100-89 IN UTAH'S FAVOR. THIS TIME AROUND THE TOTAL IS SET EVEN HIGHER TO 212.5 EVEN AFTER UNDER WAS THE PLAY IN UTAH'S LAST HOME GAME BETWEEN THE TWO.THAT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT OVER WILL BE THE PLAY.....

PICK: OVER 210 WITH A LIL INSURANCE.....

pho3nix32 · 03-30-09, 03:53 AM

Got a squeaker win today. I hope to get another W tomorrow.

line: nyk@uj 212
pick: 212 under

I'm not going to mess with these under trends:

- The under for New York is 8-1 in their last 9.
- The under for New York is 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- The under for Utah 5-1 in their last 6.
- The under for Utah is 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Head to head, the under is 5-2 in last 7 meetings in Utah.

Another rout is about to happen here. How does a total go over if only one team puts up score on the board?

RoagBettor · 03-30-09, 05:23 AM

Nice write-ups guys. Very impressive.

peterpan19 · 03-30-09, 06:12 AM

ok guys, not a great day on sunday but a winning day and I am still alive...but its early in the day, so you never know...

anyway here is what I like so far:

NJ -5.5
this is more of a trend play of the day as NJ and Mil seem to match up pretty bad as NJ is 5-0 ATS and 6-1 SU overall, 5-0 ATS and SU at home... add in that Mil is on a 5 game loosing streak (and ATS too) they are ice cold.... NJ is not doing much better, but they just seem to have Mil number... NJ on b2b games this year is 12-7 ATS so not too bad, as a home fav only 6-9, but I still think they get the job done today...

Mia +3
Orl might have all the trend in its favor... but really why is the spread onl 3 compared to 7 only a few month back... ok Mia won that game outright, but a drop by 4 points, I think it is just one of these spreads that look too good to be true... also add in that Mia is hot at home as of late going 5-1 ATS... and dont forget they only have 4 home games left this season oncluding this one here... so they will fight hard for the home crowd here today...

Over 194 Mia/Orl
I dont think we will see much D today on either side of the ball... Wade will drop something like 40 or 50 pts today and we all know Orl will keep up with it... I completly expect a game like the last time they played in Miami... both teams will score 100 pts today...Orl scored 103.2 pts over the last 5 games... Mia only 94.4 pts, but still this should be a fun game to watch today...

Utah -10 (1pt buy)
I somehow like Utah here today, I know they play the Knicks and you never know which Knicks will show up today... Utah should just blow away the Knicks today... add in the revenge factor for the Jazz here today... hell yeah I like the Jazz to cover...

7pt 3 team teaser of the day:
Mia +10
Over 185.5 (I get more points on the total)
Utah -4

GL

csimmalavong · 03-30-09, 06:19 AM

alonzo jersey retirement tonight to spice things up..

love the miami pick

Karayilan9 · 03-30-09, 07:24 AM

Texhooper
my only question about miami/orlando 1st q is this...is it possible for a decent team to suck mule dicks in the first quarter forever? meaning, will they start winning their first quarters from here on out because the law of averages has to come into play at some time? or can a team just suck that badly in the first quarter and still be a playoff team?

The thing is, Miami's 1Q record keeps getting worse! they have been in a freefall and incredibly can't even match the Wizards or the Clippers who on average win 10% more 1Q then them

Where they make it up is 2Q - 3 Q , where they are the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the NBA winning 60 and 61% of the time overall.

If Magic can't win the 1Q they could find themselves in serious trouble when Miami typically wake up in the 2Q.

dennisback · 03-30-09, 07:36 AM

dont play orlando 1q!!
miami has 27-25 average in their last 5 1Qs and last meeting @ mia they won 1Q too!

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_last5_3.html

they are both very good in 2Q orlando ave +5 in last 5 and miami also +3.6 not bad!

TripleHHH · 03-30-09, 07:46 AM

Hey cocknocker whats your thought on Golden State 1H . Should be solid IMO. Memphis is a weak A$$ Team on the road plus Golden State scores alot @ Home

Jimbo42 · 03-30-09, 08:19 AM

Good morning, yo mafia...
If ur playin the Knicks/ Jazz for the whole game, the play is on the Knicks or Pass on it... Knicks look to be on the uptick with their play.. and the Jazz have kind of struggled a little bit with that collapse against PHX and having to go to OT...
And don't you already know, the Knicks have been a cover machine on the road lately.. oh yea things are not always as they appear....

Jimbo42 · 03-30-09, 08:22 AM

Knicks 5-1 ats. last 6 road games.. w/ covers over CLE, DET and ORL in their own cribs...
btw, Utah with two MASSIVE games coming up on the road @Portland and then @Denver. Thems in the same division fellas... I don't know yet if I'm playin the Knicks but I ain't playing Utah... I can wait for a better spot!

King_Bookie · 03-30-09, 08:36 AM

My bets:

Miami +4
New York +11.5

Madetowin · 03-30-09, 10:12 AM

ORLANDO is 8-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

solobass · 03-30-09, 10:13 AM

CK congrats on your challenge victory just retire the trophy already.......TO BE THE MAN YOU HAVE TO BEAT THE MAN!

Bucks +4.5 booked play for me

the magic/heat game has too many intangibles i love betting on the magic but i would not be surprised if heat win SU. i am grabbing the proverbial popcorn on that one.

solobass · 03-30-09, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Knicks 5-1 ats. last 6 road games.. w/ covers over CLE, DET and ORL in their own cribs...
btw, Utah with two MASSIVE games coming up on the road @Portland and then @Denver. Thems in the same division fellas... I don't know yet if I'm playin the Knicks but I ain't playing Utah... I can wait for a better spot!

i am capping this one right now too, and i have made money off the knicks this year. what is interesting here is when the underdog has a reasonably faster pace than the favorite, all it takes is some decent shooting to keep within shouting distance or cash the backdoor cover

gyftosgreek · 03-30-09, 10:18 AM

good luck to you solo i like your bucks also.gongrats to ck also.bol to all you guys.

abev · 03-30-09, 10:23 AM

So much good knowledge here you guys have helped me a lot. Of course I don't have the guts to bet for real

. I wished I took SAC last night ftw instead of just the points.

I created a 'virtual sportsbook' site called FakePuppy that's been up for a few months. There's no money involved - it's just for fun, but there are points(kibbles) and real odds. I'd love to hear what real bettors think about it. Maybe it will be a way for some of you to test trends? You can check out my stat page to get a feel for what's going on.

Jimbo42 · 03-30-09, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by solobass

i am capping this one right now too, and i have made money off the knicks this year. what is interesting here is when the underdog has a reasonably faster pace than the favorite, all it takes is some decent shooting to keep within shouting distance or cash the backdoor cover

Smart angle!

RoagBettor · 03-30-09, 10:32 AM

Solobass, you're exactly right. Other than Dallas not covering the 16.5 in my 8 pt teaser, most times I take the big underdog and add the 8 pts. Clips were down 27 late to Houston the other night and lost by 17. Warriors were down 30 to Denver in the 4th quarter and lost by 13.

It's a great way to play the 3/8's (3 Team/8 Pt Teasers).

solobass · 03-30-09, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by gyftosgreek

good luck to you solo i like your bucks also.gongrats to ck also.bol to all you guys.

this is where you need to be brother right here.

cocknocker · 03-30-09, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by cnleaf

We are back to normal. Btw, Where is BIGGIE?
CK, when are we going to start the baseball season? Im so eager to roll my first baseball season.

I think that his pride is hurt a bit right now. I gave him what he asked for. I think that he got caught up with Smacky's innaccurate thread and figured that now was a good time to challenge me. I told my boy on the phone about Smacky's innaccurate record keeping and how it included the plays of others and how it also didn't have my JM numbers included also. I also told him to look at my record on hitting the big ones. And then compare that to halves plays etc, which I was a little cold on, but not going into any defecit because of them. But he was so stuck on a 16-20 streak (even SexyMit had the nerve to tell me that i was becoming fade material) even though I was hitting 75% of my big plays.

He made himself a -220 favorite. And despite that I told him that I would beat him with ease. He didn't believe me, and kept repeating Dude, you're 16-20.

Well we all know how that on turned out. I have to say that it's not good when the guy who asked for the challenge ends up with a negative record at the end and doesn't give a concession. And Biggie is good, make no doubts about that. But when the pressure is on whether it be NFL Playoffs, College Bowl Season, MLB Playoffs, March Madness, or a challenge I think i can hold my own against anyone tout or not. Biggie just got nothing but my best plays.

In the mean and between I try to help others out with all different kinds information, tips, ideas for money management, reading spreads and corresponding moneylines etc. And I remain accessible as always. I am one of the ordinary people like everyone else here on the thread. That's where the People's Champ comes from. One among many in the CK Mafia.

Biggie will turn up again once he gets over his hang up.

It's baseball time though, and i am happy that you share my joy in handicapping America's Game. I will be over in the MLB page off and on today.

shoebox · 03-30-09, 10:43 AM

I just cant bet on MIA tonite, one thing I learned about the magic is you either bet with em or you dont bet em at all.

GL on that one though as I will steer clear